“Polygamy, the Commodification of Women, and Underdevelopment.” Winner, Best Paper of 2022 by the Social Science History Association.
On-Break-from-Twitter, CA
Joined March 2007
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Awarded Best Paper of 2022 by The Social Science History Association. cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Nessuno retweeted
Buď teda Ukrajinci dokázali nějak hacknout systémy SpaceX a používat civilní antény Starlink za pohybu, nebo je Musk lže.
Takže:
1. Rusové od loňského roku načerno nakupovali Starlinky všude možně po světě, ty pak nasazovali na Ukrajině.
2. Problém začal řešit tehdejší ministr obrany Fedorov a jeho tým. Řešením byly bílé seznamy (whitelists), kdy pouze oficiálně registrované terminály mohly být zprovozněny nad území Ukrajiny (kontrolované Ukrajinu nebo okupované Ruskem).
3. Povolené civilní terminály fungují pouze ve stacionárním režimu nebo za velmi nízké rychlosti pohybu (do 90 km/h).
4. Registrovat terminály museli jak vojáci (přes Delta nebo Armija+), firmy a státní zaměstnanci přes portál Dia, civilisté a podnikatelé přes CNAP. Registrovalo se KIT číslo, UTID a číslo účtu.
5. Registrace byla spuštěna 5. února 2026.
A teď to podstatné (a zopakuji to znovu)
Ukrajinští vojáci pro terminály, které se využívají na mobilní cíle ve vysoké rychlosti (typické middle strike drony při zrychlení z rampy nebo třeba drony interceptory), používají službu Starshield.
To je služba, o které Musk říká, že ji kontroluje americká vláda (a všimněte si, že už nepíše, že ji vlastní). Jde o využití stejné konstelace satelitů Starlink, ale s lepším šifrováním, přístupy a tak dále.
Zde je důležité, že za tuto službu neplatí americká vláda, ale vláda německá skrze FMS (Foreign Military Sales, což je proces, přes který Amerika prodává své zbraně, například Patrioty). Ta platí tuto službu do půlky května příštího roku.
Co se omezila, je služba Starshield, tj. terminální na mobilních cílech. Nejde tu teď momentálně o stacionární Starlink, který funguje právě na principech těch bílých seznamů. Proto se Němci ozvali. Proto se Ukrajinci ozvali. Proto si Musk, Rubio, Trump a další přehazují zodpovědnost a matou společnost.
Důvodem není jen to, že v rámci americké společnosti nechtějí ztratit zbytky kreditu, ale taky to, že se vysílá vzkaz spojencům, kterým říkají, že pokud na postu amerického prezidenta bude člověk, který chce lízat ruskou/čínskou/severokorejskou či jakoukoli jinou podrážku, může mechanismus FMS s odůvodněním "národního zájmu" podělat.
A tenhle signál je mnohem horší, protože se Evropané (a vlastně kdokoli, kdo se u Američanů rozhodne nakupovat přes FMS, nebo jiný mechanismus, přes který není možné domáhat se právní ochrany u soudu/arbitráže) budou naprosto legitimně ptát, co všechno v sobě obsahuje kill switch a jak moc jsme schopní nahrazovat americké know how tím svým?
Proto Musk bulí, když Evropané mluví o předělovaní frekvencí pouze pro evropské společnosti. Proto američtí technologičtí giganti jsou nervózní. A proto budou mít problém i americké zbrojovky, které mají díky válce v Evropě žně (nákupy z Evropy jsou největší za desítky let a po 20 letech jsme největšími odběrateli amerických zbraní).
Trump si neuvědomuje, jak velký geopolitický průšvih za sebou zanechá, pro nějakou zdánlivou výhodu, kterou mu momentálně Putin nabízí. Ať už to 300 000 tun nafty, stavba infrastruktury ruskými společnosti pro Aljašku, nebo nějaké shady kontakty, který má Witkoff a Kushner s Dmitrijevem.
Nessuno retweeted
I was delighted to sit down with my friend Brad Porter for his podcast Deployed and discuss my career over the last three decades and some of my thoughts on the moment we find ourselves in AI.
share.transistor.fm/s/3c40e0…
Nessuno retweeted
A good reason to reject irredentism on principle: any nation can manufacture historical claims against neighboring territories, even distant lands. It’s in the collective interest of states to shut down all annexationist ambitions.
Nessuno retweeted
there's something genuinely beautiful about topology optimization
you give it a load case, a boundary, and a material budget and it just… removes everything that doesn't need to be there
no aesthetic intent
no design language
no human bias toward familiar shapes
just physics deciding what stays
the results look organic because nature runs the same algorithm stress flows material remains where it must everything else disappears
engineers spent centuries adding material for confidence
topology optimization asks a different question entirely:
what's the minimum structure that doesn't fail?
and the answer is always something that looks alive
Nessuno retweeted
A Drone With Only One Motor!
And a 3D-printed propeller. And somehow, it still manages to fly.
The really interesting part is how you control it.
By accelerating and decelerating the motor more than 300 times per second, you can control the drone's thrust, pitch, and roll.
The propeller spins at almost 20,000 RPM, with its tips approaching half the speed of sound.
Getting this to work required custom firmware, a homemade high-speed imaging setup to study the blades, and hundreds of crashes.
I've been sharing Joshua Bird's videos for quite a while now. I just love the things he comes up with and how much effort he puts into making them work.
We're also going to talk about a few other projects he's currently working on. More on that soon!
And if you want to take a closer look at how he built this thing, he's made the code and CAD files open source.
github.com/jyjblrd/single-pr…
Full YouTube video:
youtu.be/Ndftcft6XhU?si=19rA…
——
Weekly robotics and AI insights.
Subscribe free: 22astronauts.com
Nessuno retweeted
Weidel: "Prolonging the war and shooting drones into the hinterland of Russia, destroying refineries, houses, and buildings near Moscow, is a huge provocation."
Host: "It's defending itself."
Weidel: "No, it's not."
Host: "Every night, drones and ballistic missiles rain down on Ukraine..."
Weidel: "This strategy is very risky, and we've been criticizing it. We want to end this war.
It doesn't help if a country [Ukraine] launches drone attacks against a country [Russia] that has nuclear weapons. It doesn't make sense, it's very risky and very stupid.
We need to end this, and we need to actually put pressure on Ukrainian president to have the willingness to end the dying and stop this very risky strategy for all of Europe."🔚
Folks, here is Weidel's imaginary reality: black is white, the victim is to blame for the crime against them, and defending your home against a bloody, illegal invasion that murders children and razes towns is "stupid," while letting Russia occupy you and carry out a country-wide Bucha massacre is probably smart.
And defending yourself is risky! Risky, did you hear that? Well, no shit, just standing there and catching Russian ballistics with your face is risky, too. So we may as well take the risk and, hear me out, fight back?
Please don't vote for this evil Russian appendix in Germany!
Nessuno retweeted
Elon really is the most amazing entrepreneur on the planet, they’re actually making their own blades for turbines so they can get the power they need, and because of their rocket work, they’re the best casters in the world.
It’s some horrible disease that @BernieSanders @karaswisher and some other @TheDemocrats have that they can’t recognize what an earthly treasure @elonmusk is, they should do everything in their power to support him, not try to literally put him in prison. Their sickness is just insane.
ELON MUSK SAYS SPACEX CAN BRING POWER ONLINE 12 TO 18 MONTHS FASTER THAN ANYONE ELSE
And he has a plan to add 20 gigawatts next year
On the earnings call, Musk said SpaceX $SPCX is turning on about 220,000 Nvidia $NVDA GB300 chips every month, and that pace will speed up next year. He expects to reach close to 3 gigawatts of compute in the next few months.
He says he's highly confident SpaceX adds another 10 gigawatts next year, for about 13 total. The bigger plan would add 20 gigawatts, and he says the odds of getting there are "rising rapidly."
He kept the details of that plan private, calling it "highly proprietary" because if he spelled it out, others would try to do the same thing.
One advantage he did share comes from rocket engines. Turbine blades and vanes are one of the biggest bottlenecks in the industry, running 12 to 18 months behind the rest of the turbine. SpaceX is now casting its own, using what Musk calls the most advanced casting capability on Earth.
"That means that we can bring power online 12 to 18 months faster than anyone else."
Nessuno retweeted
It is likely that in 2027 general elections will plunge both France and Germany into states of ungovernability. Which is depressing for me as a political scientist, since France has a terrible electoral system and Germany has an excellent one, and it apparently won't matter.
Nessuno retweeted
Netanyahu showcased this map tonight during his address outlining Israel’s new security doctrine.
The map illustrates an emerging geopolitical realignment in the Middle East, dividing the region into 3 competing blocs.
A Sunni alignment centered on Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan.
An Iranian axis stretching through Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.
And an Israeli and Emirati strategic partnership, with a wider network of regional allies.
These are not necessarily formal military alliances, but a depiction of how regional powers are positioning themselves.
Nessuno retweeted
The romantic image of the French as an eternally revolutionary people is a myth that has not matched reality for centuries. The 1789 Revolution was a genuine rupture: it overthrew the monarchy and feudal privileges, proclaimed liberty, equality, and fraternity, and emancipated the Jews as individuals in 1791. It then turned to the Terror, Napoleon’s dictatorship, and wars.
Over the next 150 years France simply cycled through restorations, empires, and republics, with antisemitism remaining a recurring feature of its politics and culture.
That ordinary trajectory reached its nadir in 1940. After military collapse and surrender, the Vichy regime issued the Statut des Juifs in October 1940 on its own initiative, before the Germans demanded mass deportations, and used French police to carry out the roundups. Roughly 76,000 Jews were deported from France, the great majority to Auschwitz; about 73,500 were murdered. Only in 1995 did a French president formally admit the state’s complicity.
Since then, French “revolts” have been repeated spectacles of burning cars, looting, and street battles with no coherent program to replace the state and no lasting transfer of power. The idea of a uniquely revolutionary French spirit does not survive contact with this record.
Nessuno retweeted
PM Netanyahu outlines tonight Israel’s new security doctrine, identifying 4 major threats and 10 pillars of national security.
The 4 Main Threats:
1. Iran’s Nuclear Program: Prevent the Islamic regime from acquiring nuclear weapons. Israel’s highest security priority.
2. Drones & Precision Missiles: Counter drone swarms, advanced UAVs and precision missile threats.
3. Cyber & AI Warfare: Prevent attacks capable of paralyzing critical infrastructure. Maintain superiority in AI, cyber and quantum technologies.
4. Internal Security: Combat domestic terrorism and illegal weapons stockpiles.
The 10 Pillars of Israel’s Security Doctrine:
1. Military Superiority: Maintain overwhelming military dominance over regional adversaries.
2. Nuclear Prevention: Stop adversaries from acquiring nuclear weapons.
3. Deterrence: Back military threats with credible, overwhelming firepower.
4. Intelligence & Early Warning: Detect threats early and prevent strategic surprises.
5. Preemptive Strikes: Seize the initiative through surprise, offensive operations and unconventional warfare.
6. Border Defense: Strengthen barriers, establish buffer zones and protect the home front.
7. Strategic Alliances: Expand regional and international security partnerships.
8. Technological Independence: Lead in advanced technologies and manufacture critical weapons domestically.
9. Information Warfare: Challenge hostile narratives and compete in the global information arena.
10. Victory & National Spirit: Pursue decisive military victories while strengthening national unity and resilience.
The central shift and message: Israel is moving from containing threats to preventing them, taking the offensive when necessary and seeking decisive victories.
Nessuno retweeted
A video of me explaining the Cornell rape hoax on TikTok has thousands and thousands of comments about my Jewish star.
Guys: that's not an accident.
If you are unskeptically getting your news from social media, you're being propagandized.
It's an op—and you're the target.
Nessuno retweeted
Demis Hassabis的最新访谈：
“当前的 Transformer 与深度学习架构已经证明了巨大威力，不可能在几年内被证明是“死胡同”，它们必然是最终 AGI 架构的基础组成部分。”
“现存系统仍缺少关键拼图——持续学习（Continual Learning）、长周期深度推理（Long-term Reasoning）、情节与系统记忆（Memory）、以及输出的一致性与可靠性。”
“Hassabis 指出人脑通过海马体进行情景记忆（Episodic Memory）的临时存储，并在睡眠（尤其是 REM 睡眠与慢波睡眠）中通过梦境周期（Dream Cycles）进行记忆回放（Replay），从而将新知识平滑、无损地整合到大脑皮层的现有长期知识库中。”
“大模型参数在推理时是完全冻结的，上下文窗口（Context Window）再长也只是“工作内存/草稿纸”，无法在不重训权重的前提下无损吸收长期经验，这正是记忆机制至今仍未在数学和算法层面被优雅解决的核心原因。”
“小模型（如 2B-9B 参数）在特定场景下的表现正呈现指数级进化。端侧（On-device）和低延迟推理使得模型可以深度嵌入本地操作系统，具备零延迟交互、高隐私性及低能耗优势，成为大前沿模型的完美补充。”
“顶尖工程师借助现代 AI 工具，产出正在达到数年前工程师的几百乃至一千倍。未来的超级开发者不是被 AI 取代，而是将 AI 当作自身智能的延伸，通过高阶规划和指挥智能体集群完成曾经需要整个工程团队才能交付的系统。”
“当前 Agent 无法真正做到完全自主交付复杂长周期任务，根源在于无法“边执行边自适应学习”。Agent 若要在用户真实复杂的业务环境里运转，必须具备针对该环境持续沉淀知识的能力，而非每次重新加载 prompt 重新摸索。”
“尽管目前业界对简单 Agent 包装（Wrapper）存在过热预期，但从“被动问答机器人（Passive Chatbots）”走向“主动任务执行系统（Active Systems）”是通往 AGI 的必经之路。”
“Hassabis 引用杰文斯悖论（Jevons Paradox）——当单次推理成本大幅下降时，系统对智能体的调用规模会呈现指数级暴增。开发者会让上千个 Agent 在后台并行展开搜索、推演与评估，算力永远是稀缺的，算力重心正明确从预训练向推理期扩展转移。”
“深科技或长周期创业项目必须预设“在产品开发中途 AGI 可能会被发明出来”，不能假设底层模型能力是静态的。底层模型能力的泛化升级会迅速抹平浅层功能层，必须扎根于核心行业工作流与独有闭环数据体系中。”
“在通用自主 Agent 真正成熟前，深入具体的行业痛点，结合专家知识与深度上下文，打造真正能帮助人类放大生产力、解决痛点的高价值垂直智能系统。”
Demis Hassabis on choosing what’s worth spending your life building in a world changing this fast:
“Going after hard problems and deep problems, it’s no more difficult in some ways than going after a shallower, simpler, more superficial problem. They’re just differently difficult.”
“Given life’s very short and you only have so much time and energy, you might as well put your life force into something that will really make a difference.”
“If you start off on a deep tech journey today... you’re talking about a 10-year journey for true deep tech. So now you have to consider AGI appearing in the middle of that journey.”
“Imagine what that world would look like and then build something that would be useful if that comes in halfway through.”
Nessuno retweeted
The vast majority of native Arab Christians in the Arabian Peninsula (modern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, and Bahrain) were exterminated, massacred, displaced, or forcibly converted over the centuries. Almost all Christians living there today are temporary migrants or expats—not natives.
Meanwhile, Christians outside the peninsula—in the Levant and North Africa—had their own distinct cultures and spoken languages long before the Islamic conquests. Today, they are labeled "Arab Christians" only because their original languages (Aramaic, Syriac, Assyrian, Greek, Armenian, Coptic, Latin/African Romance, and others) were forcibly Arabized. The Arabic language was imposed on them, altering their core identity. They are Arabized Christians, not Arab Christians. Use your brains for God’s sake—it’s not rocket science.
Nessuno retweeted
Have a glimpse at this! Nice work, @AndrewDai and Elorian folks!
Nessuno retweeted
Ukraine is a truly extraordinary country.
Just think about it: four authoritarian regimes - Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran - are waging war against Ukraine or supporting the war. Three of them possess nuclear weapons, while Iran has an advanced nuclear program.
And now even the president of the United States, the world’s most powerful nuclear democracy, appears more willing to pressure Ukraine than its aggressor.
All against a country that voluntarily gave up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances.
What an extraordinary lesson in international politics.
Nessuno retweeted
Based on her own consistently outlined plans, all of the following are logical consequences of a Le Pen victory the rest of Europe must plan for already now.
Not wait for "sudden surprises" next spring when we discover that everything she said she would do, she in fact does.
Some consequences stand out if Le Pen wins:
1) NATO: France would stay a member but become less reliable. Macron's offer of a European dimension to French nuclear deterrence would likely end.
2) Ukraine: France would move from being a co-leader to being a brake.
3) EU: veto-player at a critical moment. She no longer advocates Frexit or leaving the euro. Instead, she favours a constitutional push to make French law take primacy over EU law.
4) Defence-industrial policy: "strategic autonomy" would turn national. The National Rally supports higher defence spending, but through French sovereign industry, not Commission-led instruments. The paradox is that Europe would get more French defence capability but less European defence integration.
5) JEF would become a hedge against France as well as the US. The ten members (the UK, the Nordics, the Baltics and the Netherlands) already value it as a fast, flexible format that isn't hostage to unanimity in Brussels or Washington. With Paris unreliable on Ukraine and deterrence, northern Europe would lean on it harder.
6) Britain's pivot partner would weaken. The UK runs a two-track European defence strategy: JEF in the north, France for high-end capability and the nuclear dimension. Several UK-France arrangements would be at risk.
7) France's own competing format to JEF would wither. The French-led European Intervention Initiative (EI2) overlaps heavily with JEF membership. Under Le Pen, it would likely lose political drive. That would remove one of Paris's main channels into northern European security thinking, leaving JEF largely unrivalled.
8) The Franco-German axis would shift toward Berlin–London. With France turning inward, Germany would become the natural continental anchor.
Nessuno retweeted
Trump has made his betrayal of Ukraine official and here’s what’s coming next. After the diesel deal and Starlink restrictions, Ukraine’s friends must act. My latest Next Move:
thenextmove.org/p/trump-betr…
Nessuno retweeted
I pointed out this apparent paradox years ago, and it becomes even more apparent as midterms loom. A populist doing something so unpopular, yet also so unprincipled and damaging to national interests, must have very powerful motivations.
