Physicist turned engineer. Ready to travel for a good time.
Atlanta, GA
Joined September 2011
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Daniel Benjamin retweeted
THE 15% BAND
Look at this chart.
59 races. Senate and governor.
States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024.
The solid lines are 2024.
The dashed lines are 2026.
The shaded bands are what moved.
One formula fits all of it:
Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024
Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024
For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side.
The numbers:
Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share
Governor: ~86%
Variation explained: 88%
What makes it strange:
It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero.
The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races.
Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853.
Why seats flipped:
At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped.
What this means:
Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere.
A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out.
The numbers raise the question.
The ballots can answer it.
Daniel Benjamin retweeted
Get some flashlights, maybe a candle or two and some water. See you on the other side!
Daniel Benjamin retweeted
When I look up at the sky I'm Grateful.
Every Single Time.
Not because I imagine there's some imaginary heaven up there.
It's because I Know God Built us a Real Heaven Down Here.
Daniel Benjamin retweeted
Florida is like that one place in “I Am Legend” at the end of the movie that didn’t get destroyed by the plague.
And if Miami/South FL would have reverted to its 2016-18 splits, it would have gone under too.
Daniel Benjamin retweeted
James Clerk Maxwell died exactly 147 years ago today, aged 48 of the same abdominal cancer that had killed his mother at the same age, when he was 8 years old.
That same year Albert Einstein was born. Einstein kept 3 portraits on his wall: Newton, Faraday, and Maxwell.
Daniel Benjamin retweeted
"We'll tokenize their (BBBYQ, GME, MMTLP) assets and return them to the people."
We can't go through the same corrupt central banking system that commit the crime for the resolution to that crime. And now the alternative rails for that resolution is here!🇺🇸
This was the reason for the delay from the January 2026 timeline. $GME
Woke law firm Cooley said "The SEC staff caution that third-party models may expose investors to additional counterparty, operational and insolvency risks."
Let's unpack the insolvency risk:
1) Ryan Cohen buys back some GME shares, and they go into GameStop's treasury.
2) Ryan makes Issuer-sponsored (IST) tokenized shares which are directly registered shares rather than cede & co.
3) The tradeable float of shares, which layers and layers of derivative entitlements are on top of, each relying on infinite T+35 market maker exemptions and ETF creation and redemption loopholes, will shrink.
4) Short interest of XRT right now is ~470.95% of reported short interest which is only a small fraction of the real short interest. It has been that way ever since the bankruptcy case for GameStop changed toward the end of 2020.
5) Every share of GME that gets pulled out of the tradeable float of nameless cede & co entitlements is pulling out the entitlement stack on top of it, and they will be forced to buy a real share. That forced buy in will raise the share price and squeeze the whole stack of entitlements which are all short GME.
6) The margin requirements for banks and hedge funds has changed since 2021 and now junk bonds and all the fake stuff they were using doesn't count anymore. This means that whereas before they couldn't have been margin called, now they can.
7) The Archegoes entitlement stacks came unwinding, and there was a race for the banks he was using to be the first to unwind their position, and only some of the banks got burned, but they got burned hard. The difference in that case though was most of his positions were synthetically long rather than short, which means that the enemy they were scared of was lack of exit liquidity. In the GameStop case they are short, which means infinite risk.
I think we are in the End Game now!🚀
Daniel Benjamin retweeted
This old man explains why you should be ridiculously optimistic about your future
Daniel Benjamin retweeted
Ya don’t say 👻👻👻👻
🇧🇷🇺🇸 Flávio Bolsonaro's escape from Brazil is starting to sound like an INTELLIGENCE OPERATION.
And apparently, it involved a former MOSSAD operative, Javier Milei's government and someone very close to Donald Trump.
According to CNN Brasil, Bolsonaro fled across the Argentine border with his wife and two daughters in TWO separate vans, accompanied by a former Israeli intelligence operative who is now a U.S. citizen.
From Argentina, the family boarded a private Gulfstream jet, stopped in Ecuador and landed in Miami on October 28.
And here's where things get particularly interesting.
Trump adviser Jason Miller reportedly helped arrange the aircraft, while officials connected to Milei assisted the operation.
All this happened just days after Bolsonaro lost Brazil's presidential election and was ordered to surrender his passports.
A defeated presidential candidate, a former spy, two foreign governments and a private jet.
That's a rather extraordinary amount of international assistance for someone simply trying to leave the country.
Source: CNN / Writer: Oliver
