Prof @SAISHopkins. Former Special Envoy @StateDept and VP @USIP. Dad of @JaredSerwer + @AdamSerwer. @Palgrave published my Strengthening International Regimes.
Washington DC
Joined October 2010
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That’s 4 gifts to Russia and nothing for Ukraine. Great idea for Moscow.
How to end the war...
Step 1️⃣: Trump tells Putin he can have the Donbas + no NATO for Ukraine. He’ll have 48 hours to agree to our generous terms or else we'll increase sanctions & massively reinforce Ukraine via aid & long-range weapons.
Step 2️⃣: Trump tells Zelensky he must also agree in 48 hours or else we'll sanction Ukraine & shut off Starlink.
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Serbia’s student movement is ideologically diverse: pro-Western, pro-Russian, and neutral voices coexist. What united them was the demand to restore the rule of law. By focusing on democracy rather than foreign policy, they avoided Vučić’s strategy of using geopolitics to polarize society. It was a smart move.
Now comes the real test.
Russian media appearances today and statements about refusing sanctions on Russia are already emerging. But with a government yet to be formed and presidential elections ahead, it’s too early to draw firm conclusions. Strategic ambiguity may be understandable.
Still, Serbia has been here before. After Milošević’s overthrow, nationalism survived the political transition. The last thing Serbia needs is a Koštunica 2.0!! This means, a change of leadership without a fundamental change in direction.
Russia’s leverage is structural. Energy dependence gives Moscow political blackmail, while its entrenched ties within Serbia’s intelligence and security apparatus pose another challenge. Changing individuals won’t be enough; institutions and systems must change (especially BIA and military intelligence) . Also, Diversifying energy supplies takes time, but it ultimately comes down to political will.
I’m also watching how individuals linked to the security apparatus are repositioning themselves on social media. That’s concerning and telling but I’m mapping … These are patterns worth watching.
Serbia’s real transformation won’t be measured by who takes power, but by whether the new leadership is willing to dismantle the system that have kept the country trapped in the same geopolitical cycle.
In other words: A change of government is not necessarily a change of system. This will be the most important test.
I’m no fan of Comey, but this is abuse of power. The lawyers involved should be held accountable: washingtonpost.com/national-…
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Post-Vučić Serbia:
- Rule of law gains, as SNS clientelist networks come under pressure.
- The new majority might prove fragile, giving Vučić chances to rebuild some support.
1/3
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Sırbistan'da öğrenciler doğrudan demokrasi yöntemini seçim siyasetine taşıdılar.
Liderlere dayalı, yukarıdan aşağıya bir örgütlenme yerine, herkesin söz alabildiği öğrenci genel kurulları (plenum) oluşturdular. Kararlar tartışılarak, mümkün olduğunca uzlaşmayla alındı.
Bu yöntemi üniversitelerin dışına da taşıdılar. Mahallelerde, kentlerde ve köylerde yurttaş meclisleri (zborovi) kuruldu. İnsanlar kendi sorunlarını tartışmak, çözüm önermek ve birlikte karar almak için toplandı.
250 kişilik milletvekili aday listesini de şöyle oluşturdular:
1- Önce 250 adaylık kontenjanı, öğrenci sayılarına göre altı üniversite kenti arasında paylaştırdılar. Belgrad'ın listeye hâkim olmaması için diğer kentlerin de üst sıralarda temsil edilmesini sağladılar. Ardından her kentin kontenjanını fakülteler arasında dağıttılar.
2- Ülke genelinde 80'den fazla fakültede öğrenci genel kurulları toplandı. Öğrenciler kendileri aday olmadı ama her biri aday önerebildi ve neden o kişiyi önerdiğini açıkladı. İsimler tartışıldı, önce uzlaşma arandı, gerektiğinde oylama yapıldı.
3- Mevcut siyasi kadrolara kapıyı kapattılar. İktidar partilerinin mevcut ve eski üyelerini, iktidar adına görev yapmış siyasetçileri ve bürokratları, muhalefet partilerinin üst düzey yöneticilerini aday göstermediler. Böylece hem iktidardan hem de yerleşik muhalefetten bağımsız bir liste oluşturdular.
4- Fakülteler birbirlerinin adaylarını da denetledi. Önerilen bütün isimler ortak bir listede toplandı ve tüm fakültelerin incelemesine açıldı. İtirazlar öğrenci kurullarında tartışıldı. Adayın elenmesi için kurulların yarısından fazlasının veto etmesi gerekiyordu. Tek bir fakültenin itirazı yeterli değildi.
5- Elenen veya çekilen adayların yerine yedekler getirildi. Böylece profesörlerin, doktorların, bilim insanlarının, işçilerin, sanatçıların ve aktivistlerin yer aldığı 250 kişilik liste ortaya çıktı.
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cdm.me/kolumne/bursac-moje-s…
Aleksandar Vučić je pao, a trojica njegovih najodanijih regionalnih političkih trabanata ostala su bez tutora, mecene i pokrovitelja. Andrija Mandić, Milan Knežević i Milorad Dodik sada liče na tri politička siročeta koja čekaju da im neko kaže šta da misle, koga da napadaju i kome da se poklone. A najveća nevolja tek dolazi: Studentska lista nema jednog gazdu pred čijim vratima mogu klečati. Za Bosnu i Hercegovinu i Crnu Goru to bi mogla biti prva prilika nakon mnogo godina da makar malo prodišu.
Maybe. Too early to be sure:
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Elon Musk has spent more money on American elections in the last two years than George Soros has in his entire life.
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Serbia's must be the most well-read parliament ever, by the way: 160 PhDs in 250 candidates
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At the basic mechanical level, the story of Serbia's elections, as those in Brazil, as those in Hungary, is turnout, turnout, turnout. Those who want to defend democracy must, above all, show up. That is the lesson. My short analysis for @odgovor_ba. odgovor.ba/article/28410/
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One lesson is that autocrats only lose when facing overwhelming numbers at the ballot boxes. The proverbial cup of frustration must be filled to brim. If races are tight, shenanigans play big role to “fix” the margins, from cheating to media control to lawfare against opposition.
Turnout in Serbia was reportedly 70%. In Brazil, 80%. That is the key to defeating electoral authoritarians. Americans and Israelis, including Palestinians: please vote!
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The first worrying sign: the student list leaders’ media outlet of choice is RT, and their main foreign policy message is not a commitment to continuing EU integration, but a promise not to impose sanctions on Russia.
And this guy, Jovo Bakic, is considered to be the leader of the leftist part of the movement.
A message to Western pundits: Yes, ousting Vucic is a good thing for democracy, but curb your enthusiasm.
🇷🇸 Jovo Bakić za RT Balkan: Studentska lista neće uvoditi sankcije Rusiji
▪️Predstavnik "Studentske liste", profesor Jovo Bakić ponovio je da nova vlada Srbije neće uvoditi sankcije Rusiji, uprkos tvrdnjama bivšeg predsednika Aleksandra Vučića da će se to dogoditi za nekoliko meseci.
"Mi Rusiju poštujemo i kao veliku silu i kao našu istorijski važnu partnerku i u mnogim slučajevima zaštitnicu. Tu (u spoljnoj politici zemlje) neće biti nikakvih promena", izjavio je Bakić gostujući u emisiji "Srbija bira" na TV RT Balkan.
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Dejan Šoškić, the former head of Serbia's central bank, is one of the more serious candidates to be the country's new PM. He has suggested lustration, in particular of Vucic's expansive party-oligarchs, will be a priority for the/his new government.
That term, lustration, is central to what did not happen in Serbia the last time the country swept away a strong man leader, Slobodan Milosevic.
The security archives were never opened, the regime's apparatchik class never ejected, and the intelligence, military, and police apparatus never reformed. The result was the return of the Milosevic B-team, with Vucic at its fore, barely 11 years later.
The new government in Belgrade, if it is serious about making a historic break with Vucic, and with Milosevic for the matter, must pursue a serious lustration policy.
Declassify the security archives; allow us to finally learn the whole truth of the Serbian state's direct involvement in the wars of the 90s; to learn whom the regime(s) of Milosevic and Vucic surveilled, harassed, and assassinated; and let us finally learn the true extent the network of political and media collaborators in Serbia itself, the region, and Europe more broadly. Including the names of a few of those prominent personalities, including on this platform, who welcomed the change of government through gritted teeth.
The past forty years have shown, time and again, that Serbian nationalism, as an ideological project, has two pillars: authoritarianism at home, and expansionism abroad. Last night, the Serbian public rejected the former. No one truly expects them to reject the latter overnight. But the new government can begin that process by revealing the true costs of the latter, first and foremost for the Serbian people themselves, and begin charting a slow, uneven course into a different future for the entire region.
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The Bosniak-populated region of Serbia voted more for the student list than all Bosniak parties combined. Quite a feat. While Albanian-populated region saw unification of Albanian parties and they got 2 important MPs. Congrats @shkamberi & co.
Studentska lista u Novom Pazaru osvojila više glasova nego tri najveće bošnjačke stranke zajedno
n1info.rs/vesti/studentska-l…
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Very important meeting today between representatives of the Mecca Pact (KSA, Pakistan, and Turkey) and Iran in Tehran.
But an invitation for Tehran to join the pact was not on the agenda.
Rather, an emergency session in which the three are requesting Iran's help to end the conflict with Ansarollah, which is threatening to destabilize Saudi Arabia.
From the Iranian perspective, KSA has committed the same mistake as Trump: Starting a war that it cannot control or end.
Tehran is willing to help, a source in Iran tells me, but Ansarullah's condition for KSA to lift the air blockade on Yemen before any fighting ends is unchanging.
(Ansarullah is focused on the air blockade, not the sea blockade)
Still, this meeting reflects something even more important, and something we and other restrainers have pointed out for years: As the US pulls back militarily, contrary to Washington's conventional wisdom, regional states are showing greater agency and taking responsibility for the region's security themselves.
This does not mean all problems will be resolved or that conflict and chaos will be avoided, but it will be their conflicts, their chaos, and their responsibility, not the US's.
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Serbia's Year Zero begins with an electoral victory of a movement distantly analogous to those toppling communism. The outcome will be measured by the ability to dismantle the captured state and live in peace with its neighbors. koha.net/en/arberi/serbia-ne…
Endowed with oil and gas proceeds, Norway is a wealthy US ally that doesn’t need to send anyone to the shit house Trump is trying to make the US:
WARNING: STRONG LANGUAGE
President Trump escalated his invective against Norway, calling it a ‘shit house country’ and saying Norwegian immigrants are not welcome in the United States because the Nobel committee, based in the capital Oslo, has not awarded him a Peace Prize reut.rs/3U1joSt
