Dave Martin

UST 10yr yield has retraced to the exact level it was at on Feb 3rd this year. The only reason it’s even worth noting is the clear lack of flight to safety in a crisis event. But any bond manager still in their seat at this point have all realized for years now we’re been in a different world than 1980-2020. We already all knew this. On the other hand, French OATS 10yr broke through multi-year resistance on the daily and weekly charts. It closed the week at levels not seen since the PIIGS Eurozone debt crisis in 2012. In light of the Iran events, very few of us have baked what this means into our cakes. Godspeed, Madame @Lagarde.

The stage is now set for @realDonaldTrump’s Davos speech tomorrow morning. Hop on and let’s put together the big developments in the geopolitical puzzle that have taken place over the long weekend since Friday’s close of business. 👇 teapawt.net/i/spaces/1mrxmBaeRXBKy

You can literally see the lining up of the @federalreserve itself as a chess piece moving into the contested area of the board in real time. In the gravity well of social and political volatility that defines our present era, you now have legacy bank money (“fiat credit dollars”) now firmly and irreversibly lined up on the side of the prior era’s establishment institutions … right where it always inevitably would find itself. This represents a critical progression, but now that it’s arrived expect to see the plot moved forward as the system’s energy breaks through a key bottleneck. What this means in terms of the U.S. dollar: we now have a line drawn in pen & permanent ink (not erasable pencil) between the Fed’s legacy bank money and the upstart challenger in “stablecoin dollars” established last summer with the GENIUS Act — a modern manifestation of the Civil War era’s greenback managed and issued by the @USTreasury. The new information in this subpoena is ultimately a tailwind for these payment stablecoins’ adoption. And now thinking towards what lies ahead: collectively we barely appreciate, let alone grasp, that the ultimate collateral backing the dollar stablecoins is #Bitcoin. If you thought the ride has been wild so far, just get ready …. it’s about to get weird.

Massively important action in #gold this week that is not getting the coverage in the financial and geopolitical discussion that it deserves, IMHO. Immediate selloff at $3500 on Tuesday suggests someone drew a line in the sand to defend, at least for the time being. The touchpoint occurred at 2:30 GMT, which lines up with Shanghai market hours. This was China. 1/