Investor and Trader | AI + Crypto + Macro 🌐 Daily market analysis. No noise. Not financial advice.
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🚨 BREAKING: US CRUDE STOCKS FELL AGAIN, AND OIL IS ALREADY CRUSHING THE ECONOMY. THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR THE MARKET.
EIA Crude Oil Inventories: -1.892M barrels. Expected: +0.1M. Previous: -3.06M.
That is the fourth draw in a row. US stocks fell by about 16.7 million barrels in four weeks. Supply is getting tighter, while oil is already near $100.
And oil is already hurting:
→ US gasoline rose 9.1% in September alone
→ US CPI is at 3.7%
→ Producer prices jumped 1.3% in one month
→ Euro area energy prices are up almost 19%
→ Consumers expect 6.1% inflation over the next year
Every barrel that leaves storage keeps the price high. And a high oil price hits everything: transport, food, factories and your wallet.
Stocks and crypto do not like this.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 THE WEEK THAT CAN BREAK THE MARKET: FED, ECB, BOJ, GDP, PCE AND BIG TECH EARNINGS. OCT 26-30
MONDAY, OCT 26
🟢 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 2-Year Note Auction
Earnings: Verizon, Cadence and 8 others
TUESDAY, OCT 27
🟡 12:15 UTC (8:15 AM ET): US ADP Weekly Employment Change
🔴 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
🔴 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US New Home Sales (Sep)
🟡 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 5-Year Note Auction
Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS and 41 others
WEDNESDAY, OCT 28
🔴 14:30 UTC (10:30 AM ET): US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
🔴 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET): FOMC Rate Decision
🔴 18:30 UTC (2:30 PM ET): Warsh Press Conference
Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet (both after the close) and 41 others
THURSDAY, OCT 29
🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Q3 GDP (advance)
🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Core PCE (Sep)
🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Initial Jobless Claims
🔴 13:15 UTC (14:15 Frankfurt): ECB Rate Decision
🔴 13:45 UTC (14:45 Frankfurt): ECB Press Conference
🟡 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 7-Year Note Auction
🟡 23:30 UTC: Japan Tokyo Core CPI (Oct), Friday morning in Tokyo
Earnings: Amazon, Intel, Coinbase, Strategy and 62 others
FRIDAY, OCT 30
🔴 03:00 UTC (12:00 Tokyo): BoJ Rate Decision and Outlook Report
🟡 06:30 UTC: BoJ Press Conference
🟡 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): US Chicago PMI (Oct)
Earnings: ExxonMobil, Chevron and 11 others
What to watch:
→ FOMC on Wednesday: a hold is the base case. The real risk is the Warsh press conference and his tone on inflation and oil.
→ GDP and PCE on Thursday: consensus sees Q3 GDP at 3.2% and core PCE at 3.1% y/y. Goldman still expects one more hike in December.
→ Fed, ECB and BoJ all decide within three days. A surprise from any of them hits the dollar, the yen and bitcoin.
→ Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, Amazon Thursday. The AI trade gets tested after the mid-October tech sell-off, with Brent still above $100.
→ Coinbase reports Thursday after the close, Strategy the same day. Watch what they say about bitcoin.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 BREAKING
THE FED ANNOUNCES ITS RATE DECISION TODAY AT 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET)!
IF HOLD (3.75%-4.00%) → MARKET PUMPS
IF HIKE (4.00%-4.25%) → BLOODBATH
CME FedWatch has the hike odds at about 10%. In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold.
But the decision is only half of the story. Warsh press conference starts at 18:30 UTC (2:30 PM ET). On September 16 the hike was fully priced, and stocks still fell because of his tone.
A December hike is priced near 80%. If Warsh confirms it, even a hold can turn ugly.
ALL EYES ON 18:00 UTC!!
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE JUST EXPLODED TO 91.7. THE FED MEETS TOMORROW. BLOODBATH WARNING.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (October): 91.7. Expected: 81. Previous: 81.9.
Almost 10 points above the forecast. The consumer is NOT scared, even with high prices and fuel costs. And that is exactly the problem.
A strong consumer means the Fed has no reason to go easy. The December hike gets harder to stop, and yields stay high.
The Fed decides tomorrow at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET).
Stocks and crypto, be careful.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DROPS TODAY, ONE DAY BEFORE THE FED. LAST MONTH IT HIT A 12 YEAR LOW.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (October), out at 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET). Expected: 81. Previous: 81.9.
IF confidence > 81 → market dumps
IF confidence = 81 → nothing changes near-term
IF confidence < 81 → market pumps
In September the index fell 6.7 points. Consumers said prices and fuel costs were their biggest worry. Average inflation expectations for the next 12 months were 6.1%, and 68% of consumers expected higher interest rates.
The Fed decides tomorrow at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET). A stronger consumer gives the Fed more room to hike in December. A weaker one gives it a reason to wait.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DROPS TODAY, ONE DAY BEFORE THE FED. LAST MONTH IT HIT A 12 YEAR LOW.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (October), out at 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET). Expected: 81. Previous: 81.9.
IF confidence > 81 → market dumps
IF confidence = 81 → nothing changes near-term
IF confidence < 81 → market pumps
In September the index fell 6.7 points. Consumers said prices and fuel costs were their biggest worry. Average inflation expectations for the next 12 months were 6.1%, and 68% of consumers expected higher interest rates.
The Fed decides tomorrow at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET). A stronger consumer gives the Fed more room to hike in December. A weaker one gives it a reason to wait.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 THE WEEK THAT CAN BREAK THE MARKET: FED, ECB, BOJ, GDP, PCE AND BIG TECH EARNINGS. OCT 26-30
MONDAY, OCT 26
🟢 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 2-Year Note Auction
Earnings: Verizon, Cadence and 8 others
TUESDAY, OCT 27
🟡 12:15 UTC (8:15 AM ET): US ADP Weekly Employment Change
🔴 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
🔴 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US New Home Sales (Sep)
🟡 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 5-Year Note Auction
Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS and 41 others
WEDNESDAY, OCT 28
🔴 14:30 UTC (10:30 AM ET): US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
🔴 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET): FOMC Rate Decision
🔴 18:30 UTC (2:30 PM ET): Warsh Press Conference
Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet (both after the close) and 41 others
THURSDAY, OCT 29
🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Q3 GDP (advance)
🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Core PCE (Sep)
🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Initial Jobless Claims
🔴 13:15 UTC (14:15 Frankfurt): ECB Rate Decision
🔴 13:45 UTC (14:45 Frankfurt): ECB Press Conference
🟡 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 7-Year Note Auction
🟡 23:30 UTC: Japan Tokyo Core CPI (Oct), Friday morning in Tokyo
Earnings: Amazon, Intel, Coinbase, Strategy and 62 others
FRIDAY, OCT 30
🔴 03:00 UTC (12:00 Tokyo): BoJ Rate Decision and Outlook Report
🟡 06:30 UTC: BoJ Press Conference
🟡 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): US Chicago PMI (Oct)
Earnings: ExxonMobil, Chevron and 11 others
What to watch:
→ FOMC on Wednesday: a hold is the base case. The real risk is the Warsh press conference and his tone on inflation and oil.
→ GDP and PCE on Thursday: consensus sees Q3 GDP at 3.2% and core PCE at 3.1% y/y. Goldman still expects one more hike in December.
→ Fed, ECB and BoJ all decide within three days. A surprise from any of them hits the dollar, the yen and bitcoin.
→ Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, Amazon Thursday. The AI trade gets tested after the mid-October tech sell-off, with Brent still above $100.
→ Coinbase reports Thursday after the close, Strategy the same day. Watch what they say about bitcoin.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 THE MARKET IS BETTING ON A FED PAUSE AT OVER 90%. WARSH HAS NOT SAID A WORD.
The Fed decides on October 28 at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET). After the hot CPI, hike odds briefly jumped to about 50%. Now they are 9.4%.
Why the market expects a hold:
→ The Fed hiked on September 16
→ Warsh gave no signal in Bangkok
→ Hiring is weak. September payrolls were only 29K
→ Oil is easing on Iran talks
A hike in December is priced near 80%. So the base case is a hold with hawkish words. The words matter more than the decision: on September 16 the hike was priced above 90%, and stocks still fell.
The risk: Warsh stopped giving signals before meetings, and GDP and PCE come out the day after the decision.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 THE WEEK THAT CAN BREAK THE MARKET: FED, ECB, BOJ, GDP, PCE AND BIG TECH EARNINGS. OCT 26-30
MONDAY, OCT 26
🟢 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 2-Year Note Auction
Earnings: Verizon, Cadence and 8 others
TUESDAY, OCT 27
🟡 12:15 UTC (8:15 AM ET): US ADP Weekly Employment Change
🔴 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
🔴 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US New Home Sales (Sep)
🟡 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 5-Year Note Auction
Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS and 41 others
WEDNESDAY, OCT 28
🔴 14:30 UTC (10:30 AM ET): US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
🔴 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET): FOMC Rate Decision
🔴 18:30 UTC (2:30 PM ET): Warsh Press Conference
Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet (both after the close) and 41 others
THURSDAY, OCT 29
🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Q3 GDP (advance)
🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Core PCE (Sep)
🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Initial Jobless Claims
🔴 13:15 UTC (14:15 Frankfurt): ECB Rate Decision
🔴 13:45 UTC (14:45 Frankfurt): ECB Press Conference
🟡 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 7-Year Note Auction
🟡 23:30 UTC: Japan Tokyo Core CPI (Oct), Friday morning in Tokyo
Earnings: Amazon, Intel, Coinbase, Strategy and 62 others
FRIDAY, OCT 30
🔴 03:00 UTC (12:00 Tokyo): BoJ Rate Decision and Outlook Report
🟡 06:30 UTC: BoJ Press Conference
🟡 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): US Chicago PMI (Oct)
Earnings: ExxonMobil, Chevron and 11 others
What to watch:
→ FOMC on Wednesday: a hold is the base case. The real risk is the Warsh press conference and his tone on inflation and oil.
→ GDP and PCE on Thursday: consensus sees Q3 GDP at 3.2% and core PCE at 3.1% y/y. Goldman still expects one more hike in December.
→ Fed, ECB and BoJ all decide within three days. A surprise from any of them hits the dollar, the yen and bitcoin.
→ Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, Amazon Thursday. The AI trade gets tested after the mid-October tech sell-off, with Brent still above $100.
→ Coinbase reports Thursday after the close, Strategy the same day. Watch what they say about bitcoin.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 BRENT JUST HIT $116.72, A SIX MONTH HIGH. THE IRAN WAR IS NOW A TAX ON THE WHOLE WORLD.
Brent closed Friday at $116.72, up about 6% this week. WTI is above $103.
Why now:
→ Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites. Aramco ordered the evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters
→ Two tanker attacks confirmed near Hormuz this week
→ Traders expect the US to resume strikes on Iran
Oil is still moving through Hormuz, so a big part of this jump is fear. That can change fast in both directions.
What it does to the world:
→ US gasoline rose 9.1% in September alone. US CPI is 3.7%
→ Euro area inflation is 3.8%, with energy up 18.8%
→ The IMF says Asia and Europe are hit the hardest
→ US, German and Japanese 10 year yields are at their highest since 2007, 2009 and 1996
→ The Fed, the ECB, the BoJ and Korea are all tightening, and Canada may hike next week
The IMF also warns that high oil prices could last into 2027, even if the conflict ends soon.
Higher oil means higher inflation. Higher inflation means higher rates. Higher rates mean pressure on stocks and crypto.
The Fed decides on October 28. If it talks tough on energy prices, the market will notice.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 US MANUFACTURING PMI CAME IN HOT AT 56. THE FED JUST GOT MORE PRESSURE TO KEEP HIKING.
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October flash): 56.0. Expected: 55.5. Previous: 55.9.
Factories are growing faster than expected. That keeps the economy strong while inflation is already at 3.7%. A strong economy gives the Fed room to keep hiking.
The Fed meets on October 27-28. Hike odds go up. Stocks and crypto feel the pressure.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 US MANUFACTURING PMI DROPS TODAY. FACTORIES COULD DECIDE IF INFLATION GETS EVEN HOTTER.
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October flash), out at 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET). Expected: 55.5. Previous: 55.9.
IF PMI > 55.5 → market dumps
IF PMI = 55.5 → nothing changes near-term
IF PMI < 55.5 → market pumps
Also at 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): Services PMI (October flash), expected 57.9, previous 58.8.
And at 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): University of Michigan final sentiment and inflation expectations.
A reading above 50 means growth, and 55.9 last month was strong. The PMI survey also tracks the prices companies pay and charge. With oil above $100 and inflation at 3.7%, a strong factory number with rising costs adds to the inflation story.
The Fed meets on October 27-28. After a week of hot inflation data, every strong number raises the pressure.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 US MANUFACTURING PMI DROPS TODAY. FACTORIES COULD DECIDE IF INFLATION GETS EVEN HOTTER.
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October flash), out at 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET). Expected: 55.5. Previous: 55.9.
IF PMI > 55.5 → market dumps
IF PMI = 55.5 → nothing changes near-term
IF PMI < 55.5 → market pumps
Also at 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): Services PMI (October flash), expected 57.9, previous 58.8.
And at 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): University of Michigan final sentiment and inflation expectations.
A reading above 50 means growth, and 55.9 last month was strong. The PMI survey also tracks the prices companies pay and charge. With oil above $100 and inflation at 3.7%, a strong factory number with rising costs adds to the inflation story.
The Fed meets on October 27-28. After a week of hot inflation data, every strong number raises the pressure.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 TESLA, META AND FLASH PMIS HIT THIS WEEK, OCT 19 TO 23. THE FED MEETS RIGHT AFTER.
MONDAY, OCT 19
🟡 02:00 UTC (10:00 Beijing): China Q3 GDP and September activity data
🟡 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): Canada CPI (September)
🟢 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US NAHB Housing Market Index
TUESDAY, OCT 20
🟡 01:00 UTC (9:00 Beijing): China Loan Prime Rate
🟢 09:00 UTC (11:00 Berlin): Germany ZEW survey
🟡 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Housing Starts and Building Permits (September)
🟢 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US Pending Home Sales (September)
🟡 Earnings: GE Aerospace, GM, RTX and many others before the open. Netflix after the close.
WEDNESDAY, OCT 21
No major US data.
🔴 Earnings after the close: Tesla, Meta, IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research and many others.
🟢 Earnings before the open: AT&T, Abbott, NextEra and others.
🟢 ECB President Lagarde speaks.
THURSDAY, OCT 22
🟡 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Initial Jobless Claims
🟢 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US Leading Index (September)
🟢 15:00 UTC (11:00 AM ET): Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
🟡 01:00 UTC (10:00 Seoul): Bank of Korea rate decision
🟡 11:00 UTC (14:00 Istanbul): Turkey central bank rate decision
🟡 Earnings: Procter and Gamble, Union Pacific, Lockheed Martin, Blackstone and many others.
FRIDAY, OCT 23
🔴 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): US S&P Global Flash PMIs (manufacturing and services)
🔴 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): University of Michigan final sentiment and inflation expectations
🟡 Morning in Europe: Eurozone flash PMIs
🟡 Japan CPI (September), Friday morning in Tokyo
🟡 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): Canada Retail Sales (September)
🟡 11:30 UTC (14:30 Moscow): Russia central bank rate decision
🟢 Credit rating reviews: Moody's on France, S&P on Germany
🟡 Earnings: American Express, SLB
Why it matters:
Fed officials are now in the quiet period before the October 27-28 meeting, so they will not speak. The market will trade on data and earnings only.
Tesla and Meta report on Wednesday, so the AI trade gets a big test.
Flash PMIs and Michigan inflation expectations on Friday show if the price pressure from this week is spreading into expectations. That is what the Fed watches most.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 JAPAN CORE CPI IS ABOVE 2%. THE LAST CHEAP MONEY ON EARTH IS ENDING.
Japan CPI (September), y/y:
Headline: 2.1%. Expected: 2.1%. Previous: 1.9%
Core (without fresh food): 2.1%. Expected: 2.1%. Previous: 1.7%
Core-core (without fresh food and energy): 2.4%. Expected: 2.3%. Previous: 1.9%
The most important number is core-core. It rose to 2.4%, so prices are rising beyond energy, not only because of oil.
For years, Japan was the cheapest place for global traders to borrow. The policy rate is still only 1.25%, but the direction is changing.
The Bank of Japan meets on October 29-30. A hold is expected. But Ueda said this week that underlying inflation is close to the 2% target, and the market prices a hike in December at about 80%.
The yen got a small lift after the data. USD/JPY is still stuck around 157-159, and Tokyo has already said it is ready to step in again if needed.
Inflation is now rising in the US, Europe and Japan at the same time. The Fed, the ECB and Korea are already tightening, and Japan is next in line.
For stocks and crypto, a stronger yen is a risk. When the yen rises fast, global traders close their yen funded trades.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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The hike was already priced in at over 90%. The SP500 actually closed down 0.4%, only AI and chip stocks and futures bounced