Lecturer @ Beijing Normal-Hong Kong Baptist University (BNBU) | Formerly @ SDAU, Shandong | Speakeasy Pod | Substack | @Think_Scotland | Occasionally on GB News
Joined October 2012
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Scotland was promised renewal. It got something else entirely.
My new book Scotland Undone is out now — a forensic account of SNP fiscal recklessness, institutional capture, and performative politics that failed schools, hospitals, and the people who needed them most.
👇
amazon.co.uk/dp/1036960315
#ScotlandUndone #Scotland #SNP
Dean M Thomson retweeted
The level of willful stupidity this argument requires is breathtaking. What happened to the paltry number of Republicans who stood up to Trump, Dan? They were driven out of the party. The guy who attacked it was renominated and is currently presiding over the most corrupt and inept presidency of our lifetime, with zero pushback from a GOP congress. Not even when he pardoned the people who attacked the Capitol that day. But sure! Put those guys back in charge. You sound insane.
Dean M Thomson retweeted
I can’t believe I missed this one over the weekend. It’s very, very good.
instagram.com/reel/DfKnaams_…
Dean M Thomson retweeted
The Conservatives have recorded their highest level of support since the general election to come within two points of Labour, YouGov polling for The Times suggests
Almost one in four voters (24%) now say they would back Kemi Badenoch’s party if an election were held tomorrow — up two points in a week
The figure is broadly similar to the 23.7% of voters that supported the party at the last general election, under Rishi Sunak. However, it is a marked improvement over the averages of between 17% and 19% at which the party has been polling for much of this year
67% of Conservative voters from 2024 would now choose the party again, while 13% of the Tories’ support comes from voters who backed the Liberal Democrats at the last election
Significantly, the Tories also appear to be attracting younger voters, potentially drawn by the party’s pledges to cut taxes. Some 17% of voters aged between 18 and 24 now intend to back the party, a higher figure than for the Lib Dems and Reform UK combined
thetimes.com/uk/politics/art…
Oh. Well now…
👀！
Dear Kansas conservatives: if we lose the senate race in Kansas we most likely lose the majority in the Senate. It could all come down to that stark reality. Sometimes in politics it’s not about a coronation but just cold reality. Vote Republican tomorrow even those of you who are hurting. If you don’t it will all get much worse. Your message of frustration has been heard loudly and clearly.
Predictions for US midterms: generational red cratering, serious rebuke of Republicans.
House of Representatives:
Dem: 234
GOP: 201
Senate:
Dem: 54
GOP: 46
Dems win Georgia, Michigan, Maine, North Carolina, Texas, Alaska, Kansas
Dean M Thomson retweeted
Political analysts I trust in both parties are now referring to 1980 Reagan landslide. Dems knew it would be rough + thought they’d lose 6 senate seats. The Dems lost 12. Likewise there are GOP senators now who will be surprised. Hyde-Smith in MS? Cotton in AR? Watch out.
This would be huge, and a solid step in the right direction. One which could save the democratic Jewish state of Israel, and hopes of a sustainable two state solution.
Saturday Haley: confidently telling all the people working for her, close friends, aides, party officials she wasn’t endorsing Rogers
Sunday Haley: confidently endorsing Mike Rogers
Who to believe? Saturday or Sunday Haley?
Dean M Thomson retweeted
Boebert losing would make my night
This is surpising: The map has gotten so bad for the GOP that a number of the biggest MAGA personalities in the House are at serious risk of defeat.
That includes some who were involved in Jan 6.
I tallied it all up here. It's striking. 1/
(new piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2174…
Dean M Thomson retweeted
Blogged about NYT/Siena.
I think we've "crossed the threshold." Polls project that Dems will win the Senate. They might be wrong, but that's what they project. No hiding from it tbh.
Dean M Thomson retweeted
My son is an electrician; he has a small company, employing a few people. He works on the tools, as well as chases contracts and manages workload. And carries all the stress. His company is only worth its current contracts. He is exactly the kind of working person our economy depends on: I thought Labour understood this.
“I don't think employers are working people.”
~ Labour Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Emma Reynolds MP.
And there is. A Labour government politician saying the quiet part out loud. This is what Labour really think. They have an inverted snobbery and disregard towards self employed workers and private sector businesses owners.
Dean M Thomson retweeted
AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster of 2024, just released their final poll and it shows Democrats up 14 on the generic ballot. That's generational wipeout territory for the GOP.
Dean M Thomson retweeted
Is this the same Nicola Sturgeon who manifestly failed to deliver the independence referendum she told the Scottish Parliament would take place on 19 October 2023…?
This is shaping up to be an absolute bloodbath for the GOP.
NEWS: The last Senate polls of 2026 from NYT/Siena:
From me and @RuthIgielnik
nytimes.com/2026/11/01/us/po…
Dean M Thomson retweeted
This seems to me a useful election night guide.
callthemap.com/election-nigh…
Dean M Thomson retweeted
🚨Scott's Scoreboard (early morning update Nov 1)
✅ 47 Senate Seats Safe/Likely D. 3 More Lean D.
✅ Our model is based on a mix of polling averages, forecaster ratings, prediction markets, and more.
✅This year, prediction markets are more bullish on Dems than the forecasters. In 2024, the markets were more bullish on Republicans.
✅We are more aggressive than forecasters like @CookPolitical and @InsideElections at pushing races out of Tossup status. Historically, the races they call leaners win more than 90% of the time. We say a race is a leaner if our model shows a candidate with at least a 60% chance of winning.
✅Scott's Scoreboard is updated at least three time daily.
scottsscoreboard.com/
Dean M Thomson retweeted
All right, I tried to curate a fairly representative cross-section of 13 FLIPR maps for what might happen on Tuesday night. Warning: the last 3 or 4 are deliberately weird! Here's one that came up when the polls were in the 95th percentile of accuracy, however.
