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I picked up some $SIF on Friday.
I've written a short piece why 👇
challengingdefencemarkets.su…
$AVAV: LOCUST sits in SCDE, which lost money in FY26 (-$2.6m adj. EBITDA) & Q1 (-$8.9m).
Management blamed under-absorbed fixed costs.
$405m = ~65% of SCDE FY26 rev.
If $150-200 m ships at ~30-35% incremental margin, that's ~$45-70 m of EBITDA, on my estimates.
Expect more of this.
$AVAV announces a landmark $405 million international direct commercial sales order for its LOCUST X3 high-energy laser weapon systems, expanding critical C-UAS capabilities in the Middle East.
investor.avinc.com/news-rele…
Expect more of this.
$AVAV announces a landmark $405 million international direct commercial sales order for its LOCUST X3 high-energy laser weapon systems, expanding critical C-UAS capabilities in the Middle East.
investor.avinc.com/news-rele…
Defence Markets retweeted
First quarter in a LONG while the sequential dilution was minimal as well 69.9 to 70.1 $LPTH
While not fun to be diluted they at least raised cash at much higher PPS levels, if they need to now it would have been much worse
There is still 3M shares outstanding from the Series G owned by North Run but at this point that is only 4% dilution at some point in the future whether near term or long term,
Their last milestone to G5 ($9M) WILL hit first few weeks of January 2027 (not the quarter we are currently in but the next) and then barring a new acquisition they will be done with all the historical payouts and diluted. These payouts are higher the better the acquired company did, and while lost in the mix, G5 transformed this company dramatically.
$LPTH now trades at 7x trailing sales (77M) in the heart of a bear market for defense.
Just over year ago it had 37M in sales; with less share outstanding
So it has doubled (literally) its revenue and while not the same valuation due to the share dilution, its hardly been rewarded year over year at this PPS
Question from here is are we going into another year of defense bear market or does institutional money rotate back into this group at some point. Not only do we need to allocate money into new programs focused on autonomy to keep up with the Chinese, hell Russians at this point, we need to replenish stocks of things used up in Iran.
I am going with the thought the bogeyman of Democrats killing off every major defense program will eventually go away and valuations improve across the group.
That said, no company came and made a bid for $LPTH even at $6, or $7 (could take them out at 100% premium and still be below prices of many months earlier this year) so I am uninterested in hearing of that as a catalyst go forward.
Lack of retail posts, lack of analyst interest are other things going into favor here. Also everyone has forgotten about NGSRI even as a catalyst which should be here by April May at the latest. (and no that is not going to bring bonkers money in the first few quarters either) but 2028 is going to be about that launch and then we get some space initiatives that will begin to roll out later that year along with all this drone, CUAS, and everything else going bonkers right now.
Obviously been a cold winter for defense market and not fun of late but just some general thoughts.
$110M in backlog for delivery in the next 12 months.
Not one ounce of it depends on the Democrats caring one iota about American defense or "blockading" a penny of defense spending. $LPTH
So they have an entire year ahead completely unaffected by the market fears of in the pocket of lobbyists Democrats acting like they will send defense spending down even 30%.
The market could care less about these things right now because this is the current rationale, and perception is reality but it has 0 reality.
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Not only has the investor community lost interest so has the analyst community - could not even have 5 analysts show up to ask questions. Funny how it works.
Defence Markets retweeted
2027 > $LPTH > Drone Optics 🫦
The 50,000 unit drone order and what Sam laid out on the earnings call are what I’m most interested in at LightPath right now, so here’s where I think the drone optics business lands by the end of 2027.
Capacity: from just under 10k assemblies a month today to 30k a month by end of 2027
Orders: two or three more blocks of 30–50k assemblies through the year, as Sam flagged that customer is likely to order roughly every six months, plus at least one new drone customer
Average price: ~USD 100 per assembly (my guess, as they didn’t disclose the value of the 50k order)
Revenue: ~USD 25M from drone assemblies in 2027, going into 2028 at a ~USD 35M+ annual run rate from this segment alone
▶️First long-term framework supply agreement signed in the first half of 2027, as Sam said they’re already discussing these with customers
▶️DoW funding to accelerate the manufacturing build, as US-made, germanium-free drone optics looks critical to the Drone Dominance Program
▶️100k a month firmly on the table for 2028
For those following at home, this is the road to $20+ share price.
Put a drone optics line running at USD 35–50M a year on top of a core camera and counter-drone business already heading past USD 130M, with gross margins above 40% and the company profitable, and you’re looking at roughly USD 180M of forward revenue.
The stock was priced at around 8x forward revenue in June, and at that multiple USD 180M is a 20+ share price, and that’s before NGSRI or any of the other interceptor programmes show up in the numbers.
Defence Markets retweeted
In 2022, Europe had 0 defence tech unicorns.
By the end of 2025, Europe had 5 defence tech unicorns.
Now it has 9:
🇩🇪 Helsing - $18bn
🇩🇪 Quantum Systems - ~$8bn
🇵🇹 Tekever - $6.4bn
🇩🇪 Stark - €3bn+
🇬🇧 Cambridge Aerospace - $3.4bn
🇫🇷 Harmattan AI - €1.4bn
🇺🇦🇬🇧 Uforce - $1bn+
🇳🇱 Onodrim - $1bn+
🇬🇧 Kraken - $1bn
According to @dealroomco European defense startups have raised over $7 billion in 2026 already.
There is lots of talk of bubbles in tech at the moment.
However, it feels that, in defence, we are still massively underinvesting in the next generation of defence companies in Europe.
I reckon we'll see a couple more unicorns minted by the end of the year, and I think next year we could see double the number of European defense tech unicorns.
Still on for my 2027 is the year of the CCA.
Shield’s Hivemind helped multiple CCAs fly in a “multi-ship” formation and execute beyond-visual-range counter-air tactics.
USAF intends to have 500 combat-ready, semi-autonomous systems by 2032.
defensenews.com/industry/tec…
Defence Markets retweeted
Allen Control Systems launches new division to develop counter-drone lasers breakingdefense.com/2026/11/…
Defence Markets retweeted
Assemblies and modules the big grower this Q, which is what one wants to see - that's the best margins $LPTH
Has creeped now to >50% of the entire business
Complete transformation of what the co was 2 years ago
$20.8M revenue replaces $15.1M from a year ago, trailing price to sales now 7x.
YoY comparables going to start getting tougher because they were growing 70-120% and it's not a private enterprise widget company, it has lumpiness to it due to nature of defense.
Now we see next week or two how much @skrubin buys in the open market once black out period ends, as he told @RADHardTech he would be a buyer if he was allowed and that was at higher prices than 'here' in AH.
$LPTH bit light on revenue vs analysts and essentially flat vs last Q
Stock price has been pricing in revenue to fall 70%
Gross margins expanded about 2% and gets over 41%
Backlog continues to surge
Algos displeased -10%
Defence Markets retweeted
$LPTH Lightpath reports Q1 EPS $0.02 vs -$0.02 consensus; revs $20.8 vs $21.94 million Consensus. Backlog of $132.9 million.
lightpath.com/press-viewer?h…
Defence Markets retweeted
We’re partnering with @Seasats to unlock maritime drone operations via Quickfish, their unmanned surface vessel. Featuring satellite connectivity and onboard control relays, this integration allows remote piloting of both Seasats and Neros Archer systems from control rooms anywhere in the world.
These demonstrations offer a new paradigm for maritime patrol and response, effectively operating as miniaturized aircraft carriers – completely unmanned and able to be produced at scale for a fraction of the cost of traditional carrier units. With a max range of 550+ nautical miles, multi-week mission endurance, and autonomous monitoring capabilities, this pairing offers unprecedented force projection for coordinated sea and air effects.
Today, we presented our strategy and financial ambitions at our Capital Markets Day in London. We confirmed our revenue ambition of 6 billion euros for 2030 and set out a new ambition of 10 billion euros for 2035. Read more: investors.hensoldt.net/publi…
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Defence Markets retweeted
🇧🇪 NEW: BELGIUM REBUILDS ITS AIR DEFENCE AFTER 37 YEARS - €3.1 BILLION “BLUE DOME” PROGRAMME
Belgium has officially reactivated its 51st Air Defence Squadron, marking a major step towards rebuilding its ground-based air defence capabilities for the first time since 1989.
On 9 November, Defence Minister Theo Francken unveiled the country's new layered air defence network, known as Blue Dome.
THE €3.1 BILLION PROGRAMME INCLUDES:
• 10 NASAMS systems 🇳🇴 - Short- and medium-range missile defence against aircraft, helicopters and cruise missiles.
• 20 Skyranger 30 systems 🇩🇪 - 30 mm air defence guns designed to counter drones and other low-flying threats.
• 14 surveillance radars - Detection and tracking of aerial threats.
• 54 command vehicles - Coordinating detection, targeting and interception across the network.
THE 51ST SQUADRON RETURNS:
Originally disbanded in 1989, the squadron has now been reactivated at Beauvechain Air Base, with a planned relocation to Ursel in 2032.
WHY IT MATTERS:
Belgium hosts NATO headquarters, major EU institutions and critical infrastructure, including the ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge.
The programme aims to restore a capability Belgium has lacked for decades, while strengthening NATO's integrated air and missile defence network.
TIMELINE:
• End of 2027: Initial NASAMS capability expected.
• Late 2028: Skyranger 30 deliveries begin.
• 2032: Planned relocation to Ursel.
The new network is not yet operational. Its capabilities will be introduced progressively over the coming years.
$HAG.DE announced it is targeting annual revenue of €10 billion by 2035 - that's a ~15% CAGR from FY26's guided €2.8 billion.
Growth expected to stem from the air defence business as well as new large-scale programmes in mission aircraft & next-generation platforms.
reuters.com/business/aerospa…
Blue Dome, Belgium’s new layered air-defence capability, will include $HO.PA's GM200 MM/C radars.
The GM200 MM/C radar is fully integrated with $KOG.OL’s command and control and Raytheon’s AIM9X AMRAAM missile ($RTX): a sensor-to-shooter solution.
thalesgroup.com/en/news-cent…
Filtronic secures a further $3m follow-on order from a US customer, building on an $8m contract announced in March.
The award strengthens supply chain resilience as the programme advances towards pre-production.
#SatelliteCommunications #Space
eu1.hubs.ly/H0zLXt10
Arthur D is a next-generation Weapon Locating Radar designed for maneuver warfare.
With a range of up to 100 km for locating 300 mm MLRS, Arthur D provides accurate weapon locating while supporting high survivability in high-intensity conflicts.
saab.com/arthur
Defence Markets retweeted
According to a Norwegian aviation notice, Isar Aerospace could launch its third Spectrum rocket as early as 26 November.
europeanspaceflight.com/isar…
Defence Markets retweeted
$LPTH FYI another reason/data point to continue remaining bullish on Ge shortages and rapid price increases.
news.metal.com/newscontent/Y…
Remember that Germanium isn't mined, it's primarily a byproduct scraped out of zinc smelting.
Low-grade zinc oxide output in China dropped notably in October, to roughly 60,000 tons. This is zinc recycled from steel mill dust, and smelters use it to fill the gap when ore is scarce. Per the article, steel mills are losing money, shutting down for maintenance, and getting hit with environmental curbs, so there’s less dust to recycle. Prices are expected to stay high through November.
The timing is obviously bad. Ore is already so tight that processing fees are deeply negative, around -$110/ton on imported concentrate. Smelters are paying miners for ore, and now the recycled alternative is scarce and expensive too.
Steel mill cuts → less steel dust → less recycled zinc oxide → smelters lose their backup feed → more competition for ore keeps fees negative → Lower margins → smelters cut runs → less germanium comes out the back end.
Defence Markets retweeted
Failed to record my interview today, so I made it a point to get my Onsite in person interview uploaded ASAP.
This is my first YouTube video, so go easy on me. Massive thanks to the @UnusualMachines media team for their help and expertise, along with @evansall and Drew Camden (don't think he's on X) for their time.
Facilities videos coming, along with coverage across the Hard Tech landscape. Any sharing and subscriptions very appreciated, thank you all on X for following and tuning in.
youtu.be/j1Gub_TIwEI?si=vdEm…






















