the world of X is not the real world. go out and touch grass.
Joined November 2020
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Pretty typical troll job. OP attempts to be philosophical and fails at any aspect of philosophical critique, instead establishing his own worldview as "truth" and dismissing everything that doesn't fit his worldview. Welcome to X!
NOTE: I'm a fan of Star Trek, not a "hater." But I'm a tempered fan.
The show is a philosophical mess. Oh yes, its values are progressive, which is why it's incoherent--that's what progressive values are.
1. It pretends there's no such thing as money or currency. Never explains it. Pretends human nature changed and people just "do the right thing" with no commensurate reward.
2. Runs a military organization with a hierarchy, but pretends that it hates battleships and war. Pretends these things can be managed away if everyone would just Federation harder.
3. They wouldn't give up the Federation hierarchy any more than Marxists will give up their penthouse so that the poor they claim to care about are equal.
4. Puts 1,000 people and families on a warship, puts that ship in danger, then the crew insist on prioritizing the safety of nanites that are destroying the ship over the preservation of their own people and families.
5. Consistently places the sensible, cautious, and sometimes militaristic points of view concerned with survival in the mouths of what we would call "Maga-coded" caricatures today.
Even when the "Maga" character is right, and the Captain has to do what he suggests to save the ship, the smug crew and writers still mock him and act superior.
It's a great show. It's also a ridiculous, infantile, leftist liberal cream-jeans fantasy.
Gene Roddenberry and the main production crew for decades are liberal man children.
-Uncle Josh
I would like to see the stock market AI "bubble" unwind. The process will be painful but it feels necessary for a return to a healthier market that isn't completely stuck in a doom loop.
So, let's go ahead and get it over with, shall we?
I'm sure this is nothing. Short sellers should keep pressing. /s
$ASTS: "Program Director, Radar Programs"
We are seeking a Program Director to lead execution of a mission-critical program supporting a U.S. Government customer's national security objective. The program is built around a dedicated, minimally modified derivative of AST's commercial satellite constellation, and encompasses the full lifecycle — satellite delivery, launch, commissioning, and on-orbit mission operations — under a firm-fixed-price, milestone-based contract structure.
cc: @Defiantclient2
To all the serious, intelligent and calm people who see my shitposting about the $ASTS bears:
I apologize. You guys deserve better than college-grade insults and dark humor.
As long as I carry the 🅰️ I will endeavour to improve.
If the 🅰️ comes off again... no promises.
Thanks, @grok.
@TMFAssociates, Grok has some thoughts about your continued failure to analyze $ASTS.
Have a great day.
Tim's line that belief in AST ever delivering useful service "ebbs away" is pure bullshit. They just locked in intermittent coverage targets for US/Canada/Japan/UK/Saudi by year-end. 13 BlueBirds flying, production through BB50, 3k+ US cells live, 60+ gateways, 60+ MNO partners covering 3B subs, Europe LOI from the big four, Brazil spectrum approvals. Partners aren't walking. Skeptics who keep moving the goalposts look increasingly full of it.
Hey @grok, read this "blog post" from Tim and tell me, through a reply here, how full of shit he is about AST's future "ebbing away." And use hard language. I want to feel it.
A further thought from yesterday re: $ASTS.
Launch is the constraint. But a delay in launch does not equate to a delay in production.
I firmly believe management has been doing their best to move the production of dozens of bluebirds along in parallel as much as they can while the launch situation sorts itself out.
And I also believe launch will eventually cease to be the constraint. So it's important that production continues until that happens.
In the meantime, SpaceX is busy launching dozens of their next gen Starlink Mobile satellites, right?
No. They are also constrained by launch. So is Amazon Leo. So is RKLB.
I don't know why people are so hung up on this.
The day will come.
Falcon 9 and Starship
Blue Origin New Glenn
Relativity Space Terran R
Rocketlab Neutron
MITSUBISHI Heavy Industries
ISRO
...and others
It's all coming. We aren't going to fail because of the current launch constraints.
Chill.
Arguably, the two largest detractors to $ASTS right now are production and launch. (Ignoring market/macro for a moment)
The perception is this: we aren't producing enough satellites per month, and even when we finally do we won't have enough launch slots.
But notice there is a word used twice there: "enough"
So let me ask you this. Enough for what?
Probably most would define "enough" based on external risk. They might say something like "if we don't go fast enough then Elon wins".
That is the common cliche of 'first mover advantage' being evoked breathlessly by FinX voices -- but it's a fallacy. It doesn't apply unless MNOs decide to go exclusive with one provider: Starlink Mobile.
But MNOs are signaling the opposite.
They don't want to be locked in, especially not with the heavily toxic Elon Musk.
They want a healthy, competitive market. They want alternatives to Elon, and to a company that is openly hostile to their business.
The point is this: we aren't in a critical race against time. Time isn't the key factor. The key factors are technology, business model and politics.
And on these $ASTS is in a prime position which looks to be gaining strength with every passing day.
The patient investor recognizes when time isn't the key factor. Relaxes when the really important factors continue to gain strength. And rests easier through macro drawdowns like we've had recently.
Socrates 🏛 🅰️ retweeted
AST SpaceMobile Advances Brazil Expansion with Anatel’s Approval for S-band Spectrum and Secondary Use of the 700 MHz Band, Agreements with Four Regional Operators and Planned Ground Infrastructure
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
I have been saying this for years now re: $ASTS.
Fixed broadband. Starlink's primary TAM. We should go after it.
Is this the first public sign of a fixed broadband business being real?
Consider:
1. They can use their savvy with phased arrays to deliver Bluebirds with fixed broadband, using e.g. the secondary "tail" array @CatSE___ApeX___ has spoken about for years.
2. Because of their business model they already have a path to customers (billions of them) and through the MNOs they have hardware distribution channels also. In keeping with this same business model they can bolster their relationship with MNOs even further.
3. ASTS are positioned as the sovereign solution opposite Starlink, which has been an increasingly important distinction recently.
This has not been factored in by any analysts IIRC.
If they are going after this TAM then the analysts will need to have more specifics re: network capacity etc before they can rerate.
But we don't have to wait for analysts.
My own estimates are in the tens of billions of immediate rerate.
Meaning I think, if this is indeed happening, $ASTS is hilariously underpriced today.
@thekookreport
@spacanpanman
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There are very few things on this Earth that I look forward to more than the $ASTS shortsellers getting greedy and losing hopefully all of their money betting against a true pioneering, paradigm-changing American company.
Truly.
Hey $T, $VZ, $TMUS. Hope you guys aren't asleep at the wheel.
Time for Stankey to go, @ATT. That earnings call smelled like dinosaur.
I am beginning to think @elonmusk was right. That you guys don't even see the chess board.
@Verizon @TMobile
$SPCX: The FCC just approved SpaceX buying 15 MHz of spectrum from Tristar.
The three licenses cover the 1695 to 1710 MHz band in eight states, about 4% of Americans. The FCC also waived tower buildout rules so SpaceX can use them from space.
More spectrum for Starlink Mobile.
$ASTS will emerge from production hell at roughly the same time Blue Origin New Glenn will come online.
At the same time, Starship, when it comes online, will need to generate cash. I believe that means launching more than Starlink sats. My bet is $ASTS will launch on Starship someday, too.
And if all of you Elon fanboys really believe him, in that Starship eventually launches multiple times per day... then you also believe $ASTS will have enough launch to get their full constellation to orbit.
So by believing Elon you 1) think SpaceX will launch competitors and 2) think Starship will work. You believe $ASTS will have launch, then.
Sweet, so what is your bear thesis for AST again?
Occasional bit flips aren't a problem on the ground either.
The problem in space is hardware faults. These aren't recoverable. Once that gate or part fails it's dead forever. And these are much more frequent at higher temps.
There is really only one metric in space that matters: total AI compute per kilogram. As in, we factor in all lifecycle compute delivered by each kg of launch.
This metric has to be better than terrestrial in order for space-based data centers to ever make sense.
It is currently nowhere remotely close. Elon's timeline for it is... aspirational. If he is telling people 3 years then it's probably more like 10+.
Elon Musk says AI chips designed for space should "run hot" because raising operating temperatures by 20% in Kelvin could cut radiator mass in half significantly reducing the weight $SPCX needs to launch into orbit.
He also argues that trillion-parameter AI models can tolerate occasional radiation-induced bit flips potentially making orbital data centers easier to build without requiring same level of protection as traditional spacecraft electronics.
This is 100% Grade A bullshit from one of the biggest bullshitters in the world, @elonmusk.
The telco veterans do see a solution. They recently formed a JV for it in the USA and the EU is in process of organizing. And Japan has RAST. To name but a few. Elon purposefully ignores all of these because it invalidates the bullshit he's saying.
The telcos aren't sitting around ignoring Elon or the growing global MSS+SCS markets. But they also know the truth. Which is that Elon's timelines and commitments are usually off by years. They have taken his words and timelines in stride because Starlink Mobile is going to take several years longer than he says. You cannot just build a global MNO based 85% on WiFi like Shotwell claims in her public statements yesterday. Not unless you want a lot of angry customers after they realize your service sucks.
$ASTS is one of the chess pieces and it's going to be a key piece. It will take longer for people to realize this. But the time is coming.
Socrates 🏛 🅰️ retweeted
$ASTS: 🚨ROTH CAPITAL REITERATES $108 PRICE TARGET AND BUY RATING
ASTS: Partner Approach Is Less Spectrum Intensive & Attractive to Sovereign Models
ASTS has come under significant pressure (down 69% since late May; Nasdaq (COMP) down 3%) around the perceived Starlink competitive threat. More recently, this has been exacerbated by SpaceX (SPCX-NC) spectrum-hording events ($8B Grain acquisition). We believe this misses the point, as SPCX requires significant spectrum for direct competition with Tier 1 MNOs, while ASTS embraces a neutral partnership role. Additionally, we believe that neutral status for sovereign constellations continues to favor ASTS as SPCX Ukrainian disruption drives additional business to ASTS. With commercialization still targeting "early 2027," our rating on ASTS remains Buy, with expected near-term volatility.
Still tracking to "early 2027":
Despite recent reports and some launch slippage, ASTS continues to broadly track to an "early 2027" constellation commercialization. Bluebirds 14-16 have arrived at Cape Canaveral for launch, while bluebirds 17-50 are in some form of production. Meanwhile, the launch schedule remains more fluid and has generally lagged expectations. At present, ASTS is heavily dependent on SpaceX's Falcon-9 through year end, before Blue Origin's New Glenn 3 is expected to return to the launch pad. ASTS also remains engaged and in qualification with multiple other launch vehicles. Longer term, we believe that launch vehicle diversity is key to sustaining constellation expansion beyond the base 45 satellites required for commercialization. Overall, the ASTS constellation is "when, not if," and we highlight recent performance tests to validate constellation viability.
Spectrum is nice, partnerships are better:
Post SpaceX/Starlink's disclosure to acquire 14MHz of low-band spectrum from Grain Management for $8B (~$1.75 per MHz/pop), the market and investor concerns have heightened around the importance and requirement for spectrum. This provides SPCX with ~80MHz of aggregate spectrum (14MHz, low-band, 65 MHz mid-band). Lost in the discussion are the different models and go-to-market approaches; ASTS in partnership with 60+ MNOs (Mobile Network Operators) with 3B+ subs; and Starlink with a full-frontal competitive assault on traditional MNOs. Importantly, the average Tier 1 US carrier has over 300MHz of spectrum for terrestrial mobile services in comparison to 80MHz for Starlink. Additionally, each US MNO has 70k+ cell sites vs Starlink's constellation that will have 15k satellites servicing the globe (<1000 over the US at any point in time. Note: The US is ~6% of global landmass). The bottom line is that Starlink has significantly less capacity (<5% in our estimation) due to frequency reuse to support a large subscriber base for primary services, vs complementary satellite coverage to plug in terrestrial coverage gaps as targeted by ASTS.
Sovereign constellations and other issues:
ASTS continues to established itself as a unique and reliable neutral third-party partner for terrestrial MNOs and governmental organizations. While ASTS's 60+ MNOs with 3B+ subs validates this approach, we continue to see increasing opportunities as a prominent provider of dedicated sovereign constellations. Similar to the Japanese J-LEO constellation (The Rakutan-AST SpaceMobile JV subsidized by the Japanese Ministry of Communications to the tune of 150 billion yen (approximately $926 million)), we believe a LEO arms race for sovereign capacity in G-20 and other countries, particularly in the Mideast, could emerge in 2027+. Given recent events around Starlink/Starshield degrading Ukrainian communications infrastructure during Russian drone attacks, we believe that ASTS's position as a neutral third-party leader continues to be solidified. We believe SPCX actions continue to drive business (sovereign constellations, MNOs, government entities) to ASTS and other non-SpaceX vendors such as Gogo (GOGO-Buy). We maintain our Buy rating and believe investor sentiment will shift with continued manufacturing milestones, launches, and ultimate commercialization in 2027.
Hey, everyone. "David" is coming to take down "Goliath." You might ask yourself... how?
Well, by becoming the very thing they claim to be fighting.
@elonmusk said he wouldn't take $SPCX public. But he did, why? For capital. Why? To become goliath.
K then. $ASTS is the way.
$ASTS: “we will compete to be the preferred connectivity experience to our customers no matter where they are located" - SpaceX filings
If you’re an incumbent mobile network operator in any of these countries, Starlink Mobile is looking to eat your lunch.
Socrates 🏛 🅰️ retweeted
AST SpaceMobile Advances Space-Based Cellular Broadband in Europe in Collaboration with European Mobile Network Operator Partners
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
Stop using fucking TA on one stock when the whole fucking stock market is blowing up. Thanks. $ASTS
If you’re pissed off at $ASTS share price now, next time take bearish signs seriously, not as FUD spreading (post below👇 from June).
Now: bounce from $35 expected.
Bounce means there will be green days in this bear market. It also means there will be people calling bottom and telling you to buy the dip. Don’t be wrong listening to them 2nd time in a row.
Here’s the more likely scenario, backed by A DOWN TREND already in place.
