Refinery output steadily back to normal levels.

Sortie inacceptable, inexcusable. Une honte, tout simplement, car impossible qu'il s'agisse d'une simple maladresse.

Critical information on Rassvet proceeding according to plan for the first 2 launches. If the 3rd one also proves successful, Russian forces could benefit from some coverage in 2027 relevant to operations. To be monitored closely.

The volume of strikes is staggering. The payload impact ratio remains around 15:1, an important factor explaining the €70bn funding gap for Ukraine in 2027. Projected tax revenues are bound to be much lower than budgeted amounts. #UkraineRussiaWar

(1/3) [INTEL BRIEF] Developing Russian gains in October across three primary directions: Orikhiv, Rai Oleksandrivka, and Dobropillia. A total of 114 km² controlled and 39 km² grey zone so far this month (excluding Vivaldi reveals) have been added on DeepState. In Orikhiv, Russian DRG reached Omelnyk, a key village on the fortress’s main supply line. Latest gains are around Hirke after an earlier armored assault this month. Verkhnia Tersa and Huliailpilske have not been under Ukrainian control since summer and should be marked in the greyzone. (Could be under russian control though.) Hirke lies near the main defensive line (already breached further north). Satellite images from 9 October show combat and fires across the ditch and dragon teeth in this direction and Russian artillery strikes, indicating the assault possibly advanced further than reported and that renewed attempts will target this point. This armored assault likely intended at securing the breach point. (geolocated footage in reply) Toward Sloviansk, mapped gains are older and under Russian control since summer, but only recently acknowledged. The area between Mykolaivka and Rai Oleksandrivka remains a grey zone with ongoing skirmishes for routes and villages along the Donetsk River, as well as the remainder of the ridge overlooking the strategic cities. It is now confirmed that #Vivaldi did not significantly slow the Russian tempo in primary directions. Though slower than last year, operations are proceeding; in fact, Dobropillia taken in a pincer shows renewed intensity. Ukrainian Vivaldi losses were apparently high as demonstrated by a 25% increase in MIA records this summer (details upcoming in an article). The situation must be monitored closely in the coming months to assess if this will be detrimental to the defense of the key Donbas bastions and the road to Zaporijia. #UkraineRussiaWar #Strategy

First, I wrote "appear to be", which expresses uncertainty in English, the equivalent of the French conditionnel. It is therefore an inference, not a categorical assertion, and is not subject to the same burden of proof. Grammar matters. Second, you have no proof that those forest patches east of the railway were ever captured in the first place. Where is your evidence? Because DeepState certainly marked them as captured on September 3rd. Now, let me explain how this works. In the forests west of Dvorichna (Area 1), there was an initial approach before June 8 (blue circle), during which roughly a dozen FAB and 203 mm artillery strikes hit the area. Ukrainian forces advanced closer to the village throughout June, and by July 1, multiple FAB craters and evidence of combat were visible in satellite imagery (red circles). As per the forested area south of Zapadne (area 3), the main fighting occurred around august 10th, when massive ordinance was dropped on it and the connecting treeline. This is how we can infer that Russian forces lost control of those sectors at some point in June and august. But for the forest patches across the railway (Area 2), it is different. On September 17, the impact of strikes on the Khartia squad that entered the area is visible (at the very edge), but nothing else. On October 12, the situation is identical: absolutely no evidence of airstrikes or combat is visible in satellite imagery. This does not follow any pattern observed in other sectors of the front. There are a couple of videos showing South American soldiers entering the area, probably in July (but released in September), and early August, where signs of fighting are visible on images at the very edge. On Telegram channels associated with Russia's 27th Motor Rifle Brigade, there are also videos showing these soldiers being targeted, followed by Russian infantry clearing the woods. Since then, nothing… As of October 12, no further evidence of significant fighting ongoing is visible in satellite imagery across this entire area. No bombardment ever took place, no sign of fighting since early august. So much for the claim that "operations are continuing", because, as a matter of fact, the available evidence points towards no significant activity having taken place there since those initial engagements. Hence my point that what remains are skirmish clashes between light infantry units, in the greyzone. Therefore, yes, in all likelihood, the forest patches (area 2) were never firmly captured. The squads that entered were immediately engaged by drones and subsequently cleared out by small Russian infantry elements operating from the opposite edge of the woods which reoccupied the area. (All this being documented in geolocated footage) It is always interesting to see how propagandists, entrenched in their own narratives, demand proof from others while having absolutely none to substantiate their own claims. Proof is not always a straightforward concept in military analysis. Patterns are identified, hypotheses are formulated, and plausible conclusions are inferred from a variety of sources that are analysed and cross-referenced. The relevant question is not does absolute proof exists, but which scenario is best supported by the observable facts.

Lots of Russian geolocations in western Kupiansk recently. The city has been contested for almost a year but never retaken by the AFU.

Since 2023, Ukrainians have been much better at making trailers than Russians. (Whose communication has been poorly conducted) However, the included footage provides no concrete proof the operation was real, especially since the AFU has made no gains on the Kupiansk front in recent months and nothing has been reported.

This is interesting because the ratio has decreased, in line with slower Russian progress in recent months. However, the lack of Russian bodies to hand over is another data point pointing toward limited Russian losses during Operation Vivaldi. #UkraineRussiaWar