Josh Shapiro will probably win PA-10 comfortably this fall, but let's not forget he won it comfortably in 2022 too, by 11.8 points, and on the same ballot Scott Perry still won by 7.7.
That's a 61,329 raw vote, 19.5 point Perry over-performance.
According to publicly available reports, Musk & Trump are dumping millions of dollars of outside money into this district. They simply wouldn't do that if they had no chance of winning. I hate to admit it, but I think Cook Political actually has this race correctly rated tossup.
You should donate to Janelle Stelson so her campaign doesn't get drowned out. National environment isn't everything.
secure.actblue.com/donate/st…
Partisan Mapper retweeted
I made this simple map to show the population shifts from 2020 to 2025 in #Pennsylvania. I grouped counties together based on whether they were gaining or losing population.
Basically, eastern PA (besides Philly) has been growing steadily. South Central PA especially stands out.
Partisan Mapper retweeted
👀 AUDIO: At a recent tele-town hall, GOP Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania doesn’t forcefully condemn constituent who said Hitler ‘should have finished the job’ of killing all Jews during WWII.
Perry (toward the end): “I just don’t think any of that is helpful at all. You know, we respect everybody’s religion…” ⬇️
The Pennsylvania Republican previously faced backlash over an posting an antisemitic meme, his defense of the “Great Replacement” theory, and for vote against a bipartisan House resolution condemning the QAnon movement.
Partisan Mapper retweeted
Janelle Stelson raised $2.1 in the first quarter of 2026 in her race against Scott Perry. For context, Stacy Garrity raided a little over $1 million for her #pagov campaign.
🚨Democrats have gained an excellent pickup target! This was a district that swung to the left in 2024 at the presidential level, and Trump barely won it in the first place. People like Janelle Stelson, Josh Shapiro, and John Fetterman have already shown Democrats can win here.

ALT Three side-by-side maps of Pennsylvania’s 88th State House District comparing election results. The left map shows 2020 presidential results: Joe Biden (D) with 18,082 votes (48.5%) and Donald Trump (R-Inc) with 18,655 votes (50.0%). The middle map shows 2024 presidential results: Kamala Harris (D) with 18,766 votes (48.8%) and Donald Trump (R) with 19,109 votes (49.7%). The right map shows 2024 U.S. House results: Janelle Stelson (D) with 19,494 votes (51.2%) and Scott Perry (R-Inc) with 18,560 votes (48.8%). All maps display the same district boundaries with precinct-level red and blue shading indicating partisan margins, labeled towns including Hampden, Mechanicsburg, Shiremanstown, Lower Allen, New Cumberland, and Harrisburg.
INBOX: @RepDelozier (R-88) announces she will not seek reelection for her Cumberland County seat.
Partisan Mapper retweeted
I made some maps of the 2025 election results in @ChrisForPA’s district (PA-17), and Dems truly swept across the board:
🧵(1/6)
Partisan Mapper retweeted
Last night, Democrats in Pennsylvania flipped:
Bucks County District Attorney (for the first time ever!)
Bucks County Sheriff
Erie County Executive
4 Luzerne County Council seats (to regain control of the Council)
Mayor of Beaver Borough
Judicial seats across the Commonwealth
…. and more.
That’s on TOP of retaining the Supreme Court justices.
It was a good night, folks. Let’s have another one on November 3, 2026.
Partisan Mapper retweeted
ANOTHER PENNSYLVANIA FLIP: Democrats will control Luzerne County Council, a Trump stronghold
Partisan Mapper retweeted
Behold - the 2020-2024 United States Presidential Election Results, Swings, + Trends in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania + DLC.
Allegheny County largely avoided the ugly rightward shift that many other large counties in the state and country fell victim to. 🧵
Partisan Mapper retweeted
“Rep. Rob Bresnahan, a multimillionaire who recently sold control of his family’s company and now represents one of Pennsylvania’s poorest congressional districts, appears to have taken steps to hide one whirling aspect of his wealth: his new personal helicopter.” #PA08
Scott Perry never struggled on this measure before, so it appears Janelle Stelson actually is a particularly strong candidate.
Replying to @DemHackMaps
Might just be because Scott Perry is a weak incumbent more than anything else
In 2024, according to Split Ticket, Stelson was one of the strongest Democratic candidates in the nation. If the environment in 2026 is anything close to what I expect, Perry is cooked.
Not to mention it seems like Stelson did best in York, where Perry is from.
Partisan Mapper retweeted
I do want people to grapple with this: if "whites are very racist" was the driver behind Kamala Harris running behind Biden, as I've seen bandied about in liberal (and donor!) circles, then the white rurals in PA should not have been the places she did best in, relative to 2020.



































