Josh Shapiro will probably win PA-10 comfortably this fall, but let's not forget he won it comfortably in 2022 too, by 11.8 points, and on the same ballot Scott Perry still won by 7.7.
That's a 61,329 raw vote, 19.5 point Perry over-performance.
馃毃Democrats have gained an excellent pickup target! This was a district that swung to the left in 2024 at the presidential level, and Trump barely won it in the first place. People like Janelle Stelson, Josh Shapiro, and John Fetterman have already shown Democrats can win here.

ALT Three side-by-side maps of Pennsylvania鈥檚 88th State House District comparing election results. The left map shows 2020 presidential results: Joe Biden (D) with 18,082 votes (48.5%) and Donald Trump (R-Inc) with 18,655 votes (50.0%). The middle map shows 2024 presidential results: Kamala Harris (D) with 18,766 votes (48.8%) and Donald Trump (R) with 19,109 votes (49.7%). The right map shows 2024 U.S. House results: Janelle Stelson (D) with 19,494 votes (51.2%) and Scott Perry (R-Inc) with 18,560 votes (48.8%). All maps display the same district boundaries with precinct-level red and blue shading indicating partisan margins, labeled towns including Hampden, Mechanicsburg, Shiremanstown, Lower Allen, New Cumberland, and Harrisburg.
Sy Snyder@PoliticsPAJan 13馃嚭馃嚫
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INBOX: @RepDelozier (R-88) announces she will not seek reelection for her Cumberland County seat.
Scott Perry never struggled on this measure before, so it appears Janelle Stelson actually is a particularly strong candidate.
Replying to @DemHackMaps
Might just be because Scott Perry is a weak incumbent more than anything else
In 2024, according to Split Ticket, Stelson was one of the strongest Democratic candidates in the nation. If the environment in 2026 is anything close to what I expect, Perry is cooked.
Not to mention it seems like Stelson did best in York, where Perry is from.
This pattern didn't really hold up as well in 2024.



















