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Data Analyst. Mostly markets. Live Markets and OSINT Feeds: https://teapawt.net/t.co/Ve5QTGmq5a Me IRL: https://teapawt.net/t.co/qnwI9jJ9uN

Texas, USA
Joined October 2011
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In Texas we are beginning to see counties where the early vote so far is surpassing the entire turnout (including early AND election day) from 2022. This is concentrated in Hispanic Counties, along with some of the most diverse urban/suburban areas not far behind.
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Records are falling. Harris County TX officially has more early votes in this midterm than any previous midterm in history and that's before we even tally the numbers from Thursday and Friday. Good chance we hit 1M early votes by Fri night. Bravo Harris County voters
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The whole "Russian diesel" issue is turning into a serious Constitutional & Federalist showdown. You've got the exec branch insisting it has the right to waive sanctions, the legislative branch saying no it doesn't & now you've got a state gov. saying it has authority.
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I can’t believe it seems to actually be happening! Texas is in the verge of electing a Democrat to the Senate! Looking forward to Senator James Talarico!
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⭕️ A Tanker was struck near Basra port. – @_MartinKelly_
A tanker is on fire after being targeted near #Basra port, #Iraq
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Americans have now spent $142 billion more on gasoline and diesel since March 1, enough to buy 361,000 homes at the September median price, enough to house over 900,000 people
Trump: "While oil prices are temporarily high ... the United States oil and gas business is making hundreds of billions of dollars"
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Matthew Yglesias continues to say that talking about ICE and excessive force in immigration enforcement helps Republicans. He is obviously wrong about this and refuses to acknowledge the data. Way past time for everyone to update their priors on this.
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There is something deeply wrong with a political system that allows one trillionaire to buy his own personal U.S. Senator.
There is something deeply wrong with Talarico
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Oh my goodness. Big 4 with SPR is the lowest in history. Big 4 without SPR is the lowest since 2014.
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🚨 NEW: The U.S. and Israel are preparing to resume attacks on Iran, possibly before Tuesday’s Israeli elections, according to senior Iranian officials and a U.S. official who spoke to Drop Site. The White House denies plans for U.S. strikes before the midterms. What each told Drop Site: 🔸 Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in an exclusive written interview with Drop Site ➤ Iran retains the capacity to launch missiles and drones at U.S. assets and would expand its targets: “Cables, data centers and artificial intelligence facilities could also come within range. If the conflict begins again, we will have a broader plan.” ➤ On previously unused capabilities: “We did not deploy all our capabilities in the previous stages… and we are also prepared for the next stage.” ➤ On Gulf states whose energy infrastructure could help sustain the U.S. blockade: “Those governments should not assume they can participate in economic warfare against Iran without putting themselves at risk.” ➤ On diplomacy: Iran has presented seven new conditions through intermediaries. “Until those conditions are fulfilled, Iran will neither reopen the strait nor return to negotiations.” 🔸 A senior Iranian official ➤ Tehran’s intelligence assessment sees a high likelihood that large-scale bombing begins before the Israeli vote on October 27. “Trump has sat on Iran’s proposed package for ending the war, and negotiations have stalled.” ➤ Tehran believes Israel would strike first, “destroying Iran’s newly deployed air defense systems, in order to open the path for American bombers,” while the U.S. would target defenses along the Strait of Hormuz and potentially attempt to seize an Iranian island. ➤ Trump may launch a “token” attack on an underground nuclear site such as Pickaxe Mountain to claim victory. ➤ “Should another war against Iran begin… their casualty figures will be ten times higher.” 🔸 A U.S. official ➤ Military assets are moving rapidly into place ahead of an expected green light from Trump, with CENTCOM chief Gen. Bradley Cooper among those pushing for renewed attacks. ➤ “CENTCOM is putting all the pieces into place to renew major combat operations.” ➤ The official doubted strikes would come before the Israeli vote, but said: “We did start Epic Fury without all our assets in place.” ➤ “Trump has backed off major combat operations against Iran or the Houthis [Ansarallah] seven times since July… At the last minute, he calls it off.” 🔸 White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly ➤ “The United States will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections.” — The USS Theodore Roosevelt and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit are heading to the region, bringing approximately 10,000 additional sailors and Marines. Two other U.S. aircraft carriers are already in the Arabian Sea. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, trailing in the polls, claimed Wednesday without evidence that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon and said his directive to the Israeli military, Mossad and security agencies is “to topple the regime in Iran.” 🔗 Full details in the new report from Jeremy Scahill, Peiman Salehi and Ryan Grim, linked below.
⚡️NEW from @DropSiteNews: The War Tehran Believes Is Coming Iran believes the U.S. and Israel may strike before the midterms. Top security official Gen. Mohsen Rezaei tells Drop Site Iran has new targets in its sights. By @jeremyscahill, @peimansalehi_, and @ryangrim dropsitenews.com/p/iran-war-…
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IRAN ANALYSIS: Despite the claim from many Western analysts that Iran has “overplayed their hand”, I continue to believe that Iran has repeatedly UNDERPLAYED their hand. They have been TOO concerned with how the world and the public views them, and this has allowed for the Araghchi/Ghalibaf/Pezeshkian’s of Iran to hold back the more hardline elements from taking more aggressive measures. That is now changing, and is reflected in recent statements from Ghalibaf, and the recent op-ed published this morning by Abbas Araghchi in the Financial times, alongside the total sidelining of Pezeshkian in recent weeks. If the United States and Israel return to all-out war, Iran will take the more extreme measures of escalation dominance that they have so far restrained themselves from employing. It would be a historic mistake akin to launching the war to begin with for President Trump to reignite a full-scale war against Iran in the coming days and weeks.
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The U.S. State Department is preparing to order some embassy personnel and their families to leave Gulf countries, a U.S. official told Reuters. The last time an order of this kind was issued was in early March, during the first days of the war against Iran. As of now, it is highly likely that the countries involved are Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait.
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FT: While it remains unclear whether the US was meant to join the operation directly, one of the people familiar with the matter said it was “not an unreasonable scenario” that Israel and Washington would restart strikes in the coming weeks. “There will either be a deal or an attack,” the person said, suggesting the American goal was to force Iran to agree terms with the US as part of a deal over the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s nuclear programme that would fully end the war.
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Oracle CDS now over 24% default prob....
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[2028 Debate] VANCE: You know it’s funny I used to, well some of my friends would actually say uh, “We should kill Barney.” The dinosaur. It was a bit too far for me, but I did get a chuckle. MODERATOR BARI WEISS: Great point. AOC, would you like to apologize for the holocaust?
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These peace deal headlines are getting so creative and stupid that anyone with a brain can tell that they are fake. Unannounced visit and only the interest on the $6 billion. Who comes up with shit like this?
NEW: Qatar and Pakistan have presented a compromise proposal to revive U.S.-Iran talks. Under the plan, Iran would receive profits from its $6 billion in frozen funds held in Qatari banks. In return, Iran would allow a secret IAEA visit to its nuclear sites. Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir reportedly carried the proposal to Tehran on Tuesday. Sources say it has U.S. approval. Iran had reportedly responded positively to it earlier. Only the interest on the frozen assets would be deposited into an Iranian account, not the principal. The unannounced inspection would address a key U.S. demand on the nuclear file. Source: Al-Araby Al-Jadeed
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At 7:30 PM Central Time, Dallas County has recorded 75,834 votes, which is 232.6% of its 2022 first-day total and 134.6% of its 2024 first-day total. Dallas has surpassed Presidential-year turnout on the first day of early voting in a midterm year.
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⭕️ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu displayed a map during a presentation of Israel’s national security doctrine on Sunday that places Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), an entity the UN has found to be committing genocide, like Israel, in the category “Israel and UAE consider friendly.” In August, Africa Intelligence reported that senior RSF delegations secretly visited Tel Aviv in May 2025 and February 2026, meeting with officials from Israel’s Foreign Ministry and intelligence services. The delegations reportedly included Abdel Rahim Hamdan Dagalo, the RSF’s deputy commander and brother of its leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). The map was created in May by Germany’s Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, a political foundation.
Netanyahu: I established the ground barrier between Israel and Africa along the Egyptian border. It was primarily a barrier against infiltration. Otherwise, there would already be another million Muslims here, and we would have been flooded like Europe.
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LOST?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
Obama, speaking in Northern Ireland this week: Israel "has lost the moral high ground in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict."
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BREAKING: Young Americans are falling further behind. Change in median net worth by age since 2022, per the Federal Reserve: 75 and older: +37% 65–74: -4% 55–64: +3% 45–54: -6% 35–44: +5% Under 35: -23% The youngest households saw the biggest drop of any group, while the oldest saw the biggest gain
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