🚨 For the first time in history, Chinese automakers have outsold their Japanese rivals in Europe over an entire quarter ! 🇨🇳 In September, Chinese brands accounted for 12.7% of European car sales, compared with 11.9% for Japanese automakers, with registrations nearly doubling year-over-year. BYD, Chery, and their competitors are now gaining market share at an extraordinary pace and their success is no longer driven solely by electric vehicles. 📊 In October 2024, the European Union introduced additional tariffs of up to 35.3% on Chinese-made battery-electric vehicles, on top of the standard 10% import duty, but hybrids were not covered. Chinese automakers quickly accelerated their expansion into this segment which is attractive to European consumers who remain hesitant about going fully electric. As a result, their share of European hybrid sales has surged to ~32% while hybrid technology has historically been one of the Japanese auto industry's greatest competitive advantages. 🇪🇺 China is no longer competing with Western automakers solely on price, it is now challenging them directly in their own strategic segments. With highly integrated supply chains, significant expertise in battery manufacturing and the ability to develop new models at remarkable speed, Chinese brands enjoy substantial competitive advantages. Meanwhile, European manufacturers must finance their technological transition while facing increasing pressure on volumes and margins. ⚠️ Brussels is now trying to restrict Chinese hybrid imports but tariffs cannot restore an industry's competitiveness. BYD is already developing manufacturing operations in Hungary, Chery is preparing production in Spain, and Leapmotor is leveraging Stellantis' European factories. If Europe taxes cars manufactured in China, Chinese automakers can increasingly manufacture those same vehicles directly in Europe. ➡️ Europe can keep raising trade barriers but protecting a market has never been enough to make an industry competitive. *Bloomberg link: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🇩🇪 Germany has lost nearly 500,000 industrial jobs since 2019 according to an Ifo ​study. Yet the country continues to create jobs and that is where the real problem with the German economy lies. 📊 Including certain estimates for temporary workers, the losses could reach 628,000 jobs but all these losses are concentrated in the sectors that have historically driven Germany's industrial strength. We are talking about 123,500 jobs lost in the automotive industry and its suppliers, 115,600 in fabricated metal products, and 64,500 in machinery manufacturing. Together, these three sectors account for 60% of all industrial job losses. ⚠️ Over the same period, the country added approximately 1.7 million jobs overall, largely driven by the services sector, which gained more than 2.2 million jobs. However, a significant share of this job creation has been concentrated in public administration, healthcare, education, and social services. These activities are essential but they do not offer the same potential for productivity gains, innovation, and exports as Germany's traditional industrial sectors. ➡️ To understand this transformation, we need to look at the foundations of Germany's economic model. For decades, its success relied on high-end manufacturing, highly specialized exporting companies, a skilled workforce, relatively competitive energy costs, and strong international demand. Today, these advantages are being challenged as energy costs remain elevated, demographic aging is increasing labor market pressures, and international competition is intensifying. I am afraid of the emergence of a vicious cycle as weakening competitiveness could discourage investment, slow innovation, and further undermine the country's productive capacity. Moreover, this transformation is taking place at a time when demographic aging is increasing the financial burden of pensions, healthcare, and long-term care. Germany appears to be gradually losing some of the economic advantages that made it so successful, and without a recovery in competitiveness, what currently looks like an industrial crisis could turn into a lasting crisis of Germany's entire growth model. *Ifo link (German): ifo.de/DocDL/ifoDD_2605_04-1…

🇫🇷 #France | Results of the weekend: ⬇️ Mélenchon and others ⬆️⬆️ Le Pen Next French Presidential Election - Polymarket polymarket.com/event/next-fr…