Dr. Duru (@DrDuru) header
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Data 🧮 Decisions 🤔 Performance 📈 | Analytics leader | Blogger for fans of financial markets | Decision quality educator | #BlackInData

Joined May 2009
Photo by Dr. Duru (@DrDuru)Photo by Dr. Duru (@DrDuru)Photo by Dr. Duru (@DrDuru)Photo by Dr. Duru (@DrDuru)Photo by Dr. Duru (@DrDuru)
And then there's THIS. If we are still on track to repeat history, then the coming relief bounce should be both epic and short-lived.
Speaking of the dot com bust… We all know the caveat that price analogs are silly and for entertainment purposes only. Yet, the analog between the AI melt-up since April 2025 and the dot com bubble from October 1998 until March 2000 keeps rhyming with uncanny precision. It’s bound to break at some point, but for now both the time dimension and the price magnitude have been identical, just in time for the negative headlines to start around neocloud credit spreads and capex plans.
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Could be one of the best buying opportunities in years The VIX just jumped as much as 70% in a single day and a move that large has only happened 8 times since 1991 What happened to the S&P after the prior 8, on average: • 1 month later: +3.0% (7 of 8 times positive) • 3 months later: +7.1% (6 of 8 times positive) • 6 months later: +10.4% (8 of 8 times positive) • 1 year later: +14.7% (7 of 8 times positive) A move this extreme has only happened 8 times before today since 1991. Bookmark this post
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Dr. Duru retweeted
Asian Financial Crisis Russian Debt Default Dot-Com Bust 2008 Financial Crisis Covid Crash Those are the only other periods since 1994 when semiconductors fell at least 17.5% in five days.
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After co-inventing ChatGPT, I kept asking myself: why have superhuman chat models not led to AGI? I’ve spent the last 2 years in stealth building a new way to train models (RLCD), and a new type of frontier AI model that we are releasing today: Jev • 20-200x faster • 40-400x cheaper (w/ output tokens free) • Frontier composable intelligence optimized for decisions AFAICT the shortest path to AI-based economic revolution
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OpenAI still taking share while Anthropic likely reaccelerating. And open source is growing even faster.
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Dr. Duru retweeted
Forget FAANG Forget MANGO The whole world is run by ONLYFANS now.
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Woah…
Crazy how this Situational Awareness blowup is right inline with the Long Term Capital Management blowup on the Netscape/ChatGPT timeline. Gray shading is When Genius Failed... Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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Dr. Duru retweeted
Crazy how this Situational Awareness blowup is right inline with the Long Term Capital Management blowup on the Netscape/ChatGPT timeline. Gray shading is When Genius Failed... Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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SpaceX just bought a $60 billion company without spending a dollar. The deal for Cursor, the AI coding tool, is all stock. No cash. SpaceX prints new shares, hands them over, done. Now connect it to what happened last week. SpaceX went public by floating just 4% of itself. 556 million shares against 13 billion. The tiniest free float a mega-cap has ever listed with. Index funds were forced to buy it. Retail piled in. Tiny supply, enormous demand, and the stock rocketed past $200. Here's the part that should make you sit up. The price SpaceX pays for Cursor is set by its own share price in the seven days before closing. The higher the stock, the fewer shares it has to print to cover $60 billion. So the engineered scarcity that pumped the stock now makes the acquisition cheaper. The squeeze pays for the shopping spree. A company losing $4 billion a quarter is now buying AI startups with paper it manufactured out of a 4% float. This isn't aerospace. It isn't even AI. It's the finest financial engineering of the century, and it's only getting started.
SpaceX $SPCX traded 256 million shares yesterday. The entire public float is 556 million. So in one day, almost half of every tradable share changed hands. Bought and sold, over and over, in a few hours. Here's why that number is absurd. SpaceX sold 555.6 million shares at $135 to raise $75 billion. That float is barely 4% of the company. Musk and insiders hold the other 96%, locked up and unable to sell. Tiny supply. Enormous demand. Index funds that have to own it, retail that wants to, traders chasing the move. The result is a $2 trillion company that trades like a penny stock. Up to $211 pre-market, swinging double-digit percentages between coffees. This is what happens when you list 4% of the seventh-largest company in America and let the world fight over the scraps. The price isn't telling you what SpaceX is worth. It's telling you how few shares there are to buy.
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Dr. Duru retweeted
One of the new, buzzy jobs in Silicon Valley is the AI Forward Deployed Engineer (FDE), an engineer who is embedded within a client organization to help customize solutions, such as building and tuning agentic workflows that suit the client’s particular needs. I’ve heard from people who are wondering anew about the FDE career path since OpenAI and Anthropic started building new teams to place FDEs within client organizations. The rise of FDEs for AI workloads is one way AI is creating new jobs (and why the jobpolcalypse narrative of upcoming job market collapse is false -- there will be many AI and non-AI jobs). However, I believe there will be far more AI Engineer jobs than FDEs, as I explain below. The FDE role was pioneered about two decades ago by Palantir, which sent engineers to government locations to work on secure, air-gapped networks. In addition to having good technical skills, FDEs need communication skills and sometimes business skills. For example, they may need to speak with clients to understand their needs, formulate a strategy to prioritize projects, explain complex technology, and respectfully push back if a client asks for something unrealistic. They’re enjoying a resurgence because of the amount of work involved in taking an off-the-shelf LLM and building it into a custom agentic workflow that fits particular business needs. However, I believe the number of AI Engineer jobs will be far larger. A company might accept a few FDEs to be embedded within its organization. But most companies will want far more of their own employees working on their projects. While my organizations do hire FDEs, we hire far more AI Engineers! Also, a common client concern is that it is hard to find vendor-neutral FDEs — they are, after all, there to deeply integrate a particular vendor’s product into a company. In this moment when it’s hard to predict which AI service will be the best one in a year’s time, optionality (the ability to pick whatever vendor turns out to fit best in the future) is very valuable. In contrast, letting FDEs tightly bind a company’s processes significantly reduces optionality. Right now, I see surging demand for AI Engineers who can build software applications using AI software components (like LLM prompting, agentic frameworks, evals, etc.) and effectively use AI coding agents (like Claude Code, Codex, Antigravity CLI, and OpenCode). As the AI Engineer role matures, I expect it to fragment into more specialized roles, like the generic Software Engineer role from decades ago fragmented into frontend, backend, mobile, data engineering, devops, and so on. What will be the future, specialized AI engineering roles? I don’t know. Perhaps there will be AI FDEs, LLMOps Engineers, Evals Engineers, AI Data Engineers, Harness Engineers, and other roles we don’t have names for yet. But for now, I see a lot of AI engineers who are generalists create a lot of value. Skilled AI Engineers are in very high demand! As our field continues to mature over the coming decade, I look forward to new specializations within AI Engineering that create even more job opportunities. [Original text: The Batch newsletter]
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An excellent compendium on the angst over AI. And some reality checks. And even constructive advice on what to do next. "Is AI Going To Destroy Our Lives Or Not? " talkmarkets.com/article/is-a…
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