DrocDolf retweeted
Let’s tear down the fantasy vs. reality for $MRNA
The Bull Math (The Trap):
• 120k US melanoma cases × $100k/tx = $12B TAM
• 20% net margin = $2.4B profit • 50/50 split with $MRK = $1.2B to Moderna
• 400M shares = +$3.00 EPS• “Easy multi-bagger ,right?!”
The Clinical & Commercial Reality:
Grossly exaggerated TAM:
Intismeran is ONLY for resected high-risk Stage IIB–IV melanoma. That’s ~22k US patients/year, NOT 120k. 80% of melanoma is early Stage 0/I cured with a scalpel in 15 minutes.
Real-world peak penetration: At 40% adoption of the eligible pool, that’s ~9k patients = $900M gross revenue, not $12B.
The net earnings haircut: At a generous 20% margin (bespoke mRNA sequencing & cold-chain logistics aren’t cheap):
• Total program profit: $180M
• $MRNA’s 50% cut: $90M
• Actual EPS contribution: +$0.23 (on ~400M shares)
You won't see meaningful commercial revenue until 2029 at the earliest. Even with late-stage data, regulatory filings, PDUFA reviews, reimbursement coding, and commercial ramp-up take years.
You are waiting until nearly the end of the decade, absorbing clinical & regulatory execution risk, all to net under a quarter per share in melanoma.
DrocDolf retweeted
$MRNA with the single most hilarious possible outcome in this study. EFS HR 0.58. Down the the hundredth, EXACTLY what *NEO*-adjuvant treatment with pembro yielded against adjuvant pembro (the nerfed comparator $MRNA studied against) in SWOG S1801.
What does this mean in English? $MRNA’s drug is showing the exact same benefit versus adjuvant pembrolizumab as NEOadjuvant pembrolizumab did.
Even more simply? If you just give patients a few doses of the pembrolizumab BEFORE you cut their cancer out, you do what $MRNA does for you, except with just the free tumor that’s already inside your body. No need to pay for this $400K drug.
And this makes rational sense, right? The whole point of $MRNA’s vaccine is to produce stuff that looks like the tumor.
You know what looks A LOT like the tumor does? THE FREAKING TUMOR!!!!!!
Absolutely poetic that $MRNA produced the EXACT HR benefit as neoadjuvant pembro did. Truly, the most hilarious possible outcome.
Now can we move on from this bullshit? $MRK and $MRNA should feel free to study their vaccine against the REAL standard of care now - NEOadjuvant immunotherapy.
From my perspective, this has been total fugaze, and an amateurish pump and dump worthy of much lesser enterprises.
DrocDolf retweeted
He has a youtube channel that pumps these stocks over and over - with CEO's of all these sh*tco's like $IONQ shilling their stock to Retail.
And he charges $7.49 a month for it!!!
DrocDolf retweeted
UPDATE: One of the worst public stock recommendation lists you'll find.
On November 6th, @QuantumBullHQ published this list of "long" ideas.
Performance since then:
$LAES: -70%
$RGTI: -70%
$OONEF: -60%
$BTQ: -70%
$ARQQ: -75%
$QUBT: -50%
$QBTS: -65%
$CCCX (now $INFQ): -50%
$IONQ: -50%
$QNCCF: -70%
This is why fundamentals matter. Hype can drive stocks higher for a while, but eventually valuations reconnect with reality.
Anyone who blindly followed this list could be sitting on devastating losses.
Be careful who you follow - I called him out and he blocked me!
DrocDolf retweeted
THE MOST IMPORTANT VIDEO TO WATCH IF YOU ARE INVESTED IN QUANTUM COMPUTING COMPANIES.
$IONQ $RGTI $QBTS $QUBT $LAES $ARQQ $QNT $INFQ $BTQ
The world's leading quantum computing researcher Scott Aaronson calls out the scams and snake oil-men in the public quantum computing stock market.
- "The most important thing that I can say in this whole interview, if I am taking to Retail investors is that unfortunately there are companies that I see that are really trying to solve the hardware problems, they might succeed, they might fail but they are really focused on solving the real problems and talking about it more or less honestly"
- "and then there are companies that have focused on like marketing themselves to Retail investors and doing IPO's" i.e. the 4 public quantum computing companies IONQ, Rigetti, D-Wave and QUBT.
- "and I see these 2 sets of companies being mostly disjoint from each other"
- "So the companies that have focused on doing IPO's are actually not the ones that are in the lead on in the hardware, what they are in the lead on is selling a narrative to people......
- "convincing people this is already useful for solving problems in optimization and machine learning and finance, which sounds great to people, but all depends on you agreeing to not ask the question Q. well could a classical computer have done that just as well, could a classical computer actually have done that much faster and easier "
- "When people are talking about that the big use of a quantum computer is to solve optimization or machine learning problems or to turbo charge AI, or it can already do this, it's already delivering value to customers...."
- "these are the tells you are dealing with a SNAKEOIL SALESMAN"
Remember the only 4 quantum pure play companies that have IPO'd are $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT $QBTS
He also says earlier in the interview “I would say
$IONQhas not demonstrated anything in trapped ion hardware close to what Quantinuum has demonstrated in the last year”
YOU ARE BEING LIED TO!
DrocDolf retweeted
The failure of quantum computing is finally sinking in
youtube.com/watch?v=DX_oIQ-t…
DrocDolf retweeted
circling back to this. back in April IonQ claimed their 36 qubit QC was 10,000x faster than “the best” superconducting QC, and that their results were “independently verified”
time has revealed that “3rd party validation” to be a crock of shit
DrocDolf retweeted
AI did not suddenly discover a cancer vaccine. That is engagement bait.
Moderna and Merck reported positive Phase 3 results for Intismeran plus Keytruda in 1,137 melanoma patients after surgery. This is a real and important scientific result.
But the vaccine entered human trials in 2017, and Moderna was already using internal bioinformatics algorithms to select each patient’s tumor targets.
AI helps analyze mutations and choose up to 34 neoantigens for the personalized treatment. It did not independently invent the vaccine or cure cancer.
The full Phase 3 numbers have not been released. Overall survival is still unknown. The treatment is not approved, not a universal cancer vaccine and was tested with Keytruda, not alone.
BioNTech, Roche, NEC, Transgene and Evaxion have used similar computational or machine learning approaches for years.
This is a breakthrough in genomics, immunology, mRNA, manufacturing and clinical science. Rebranding all of that as “AI discovered a cancer vaccine today” is pure AI hype.
With cancer vaccines now being discovered with AI ($MRNA), it seems that the US government might actually grow its way out of its budget deficit.
It feels like we're in the early innings of the healthcare system becoming unburdened by many terminal illnesses.
DrocDolf retweeted
NEW EARNINGS GAME: $QBTS Edition
Let's make listening to Alan Baratz become interesting.
Since on every earnings call, Alan Baratz parrots the same talking points repeatedly, I thought it would be fun to make it into a leaderboard game.
Here are my suggestions, but I'm open to your feedback and suggestions!
2 points for every mention of "commercial ready quantum provider" (where are the commercial deals?)
1 point when Alan Baratz talks about how "dual-platform" is a strength (except both platforms are useless)
5 points for every "we demonstrated quantum supremacy" (referring to some study that was debunked a year ago)
3 points for discussion about their dead quantum AI strategy
5 points - talk about projects that were won 9-24 months ago
3 points - mention about useless blockchain projects (it's 2022 again apparently)
Highest score wins bragging rights. What else should we add to the list? 👇
DrocDolf retweeted
These research houses (IDC, Gartner) are an incredible business. They sell their services to tech companies, to put them on some quadrant as a "leader". Then they turn around and sell advice to IT departments, who hire them for "unbiased research".
DrocDolf retweeted
🚨HUGE: SPAIN BLOCKS PALANTIR FROM STATE-BACKED CONTRACTS
Spain has reportedly begun telling state-backed companies to avoid new contracts with $PLTR over national security concerns, El Confidencial reports.
It is not an official ban, but Spain’s state-owned industrial holding (SEPI) firms were reportedly told to AVOID Palantir contracts over risks to national sovereignty and strategic data.
DrocDolf retweeted
$QBTS NSF deal:
This isn't a new government endorsement of D-Wave, it's a pre-existing Yale relationship that came bundled with the QCI acquisition, and D-Wave's annealing business has nothing to do with it.
DrocDolf retweeted
As a D-Wave insider, I wish I could reveal what people say internally about these projects, without MNPI.
But I will pose this question - even if spin glass can be predicted effectively by quantum annealing, who cares?
DrocDolf retweeted
On the arXiv tonight, we present a probabilistic computer with 1,000,000 p-bits in hardware.
Ten years ago, we started from one.
I started working on this a decade ago, when p-bits were a fringe idea that drew more skepticism than interest.
Watching it go from a sketch on paper to a million-p-bit machine running in a rack is, honestly, quite staggering and emotional.
The p-bit firmly sits between the classical bit and the qubit. It grew out of Behtash Behin-Aein's work around 2015 and was formally defined and introduced by Kerem Çamsarı et al. in Phys. Rev. X in 2017.
In 2019 it became a physical device: an 8-p-bit machine built from stochastic magnetic tunnel junctions factored integers in Nature, on the strength of the Ohno/Fukami labs at Tohoku. By 2022, digital emulators reached tens of thousands of p-bits, led by Navid Anjum Aadit.
Tonight Navid Anjum Aadit reports a million, running at over a TRILLION flips per second.
Getting to that scale needed an industry-grade platform. The machine runs on eighteen networked FPGAs on Siemens' Veloce proFPGA system, and working with Clayton Thomas, Jason Twigg, and Andrew Seawright at Siemens is what turned a million-p-bit design into a machine we could actually run.
What I find most interesting is not the size, but where it points. The reason this scales is that a stochastic computer split across many chips does not have to stay in synchrony: stale information from a neighbor does not break the computation. In such distributed systems, there is a clear path to billions of p-bits, especially if they are built directly from asynchronous CMOS + MRAM where a magnetic tunnel junction is itself a natural p-bit.
That path runs through devices and materials, not software alone. Results like this come from years of patient work on nanodevices, the kind of deep, unglamorous research that is easy to underfund and hard to replace. If we want computers that work with physics instead of against it, that is where the investment has to go.
This was two years of work by a group I am proud of: Navid Anjum Aadit leading the hardware, with Xiuqi Zhang, Shuvro Chowdhury, Kevin Callahan-Coray, Kyle Lee, and Saleh Bunaiyan at UCSB; Sanjay Seshan and Tathagata Srimani at CMU; and our collaborators at Siemens.
Paper link in comments.
DrocDolf retweeted
For five straight years, the executives and board members running IonQ, Rigetti, and $QBTS have sold $931 million more in stock than they've bought.
This money came directly from investors like you!