On a crusade to bring the truth to retail stock market investors, completely independent! Not financial advice. email: [email protected]

NYC
Joined December 2024
Guess where we go next - breakout confirmed +122% so far today. Dye and Durham. $DND.TO / $DYNDF 5x to 7x incoming, more upside potential than $SPXC, $TSLA $PLTR $PYPL $NVDA $T.NE $ENB
BREAKING: Dye and Durham $DND.TO / $DYNDF annual earnings results released at 11.43pm (17mins before the deadline lol). The market priced in bankruptcy. Instead we got - an on-time filing, - a clean EY audit, - no material going-concern uncertainty, - Q4 adjusted EBITDA +15%, - operating cash flow +15%, and - $19.9M in annualized savings. Q4 revenue was $104.2M, up 4% excluding Credas. Adjusted EBITDA reached $55.1M, up 15% YoY and 18% excluding Credas. That is an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 53%, compared with about 45% last year. Q4 operating cash flow was $65.6M, up 15%. For FY26, DND generated $410.7M of revenue, $198.8M of adjusted EBITDA and $153.4M of operating cash flow. The net loss improved 56%, from $88.0M to $38.5M. Banking Technology revenue increased to $108.3M, up approximately 4.6%. The company says it has already achieved $19.9M of annualized cost savings, well ahead of the original $11M FY26 target, with further initiatives still planned. DND also made $172.7M of gross repayments across the 2029 notes, Term Loan B and revolver. At June 30, first-lien leverage was 5.17x, below the 5.8x covenant threshold. EY delivered an unmodified audit opinion, while management concluded there were no material uncertainties that may cast significant doubt on DND’s ability to continue as a going concern. Most importantly, the sale process for both the whole company and CFS remains ongoing. Yes, the debt is heavy. But this was not a bankruptcy print. The core business is producing real cash, margins have recovered sharply, costs are coming out faster than planned and the strategic review remains alive. NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY!
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$DND.TO $DYNDF You know what’s coming!
The more I dig into Dye and Durham's $DND.TO’s new executive team, the more interesting it gets.! Tell me I'm wrong - but a sale is coming! Look at the timing and backgrounds: Jason Read - Chief Strategy & Technology Officer - Joined DND in 2026. - Previously: - EY Private Equity Technology Consulting then Houlihan Lokey Transaction Advisory then Portage Point value creation/performance improvement. Steve Waszak - Interim CFO - Appointed May 25, 2026. - Extensive M&A experience and previously operated through an actual Private equity acquisition as CFO. Todd Schulte - COO -Joined DND in 2026. - Previously COO at Togetherwork, CentralSquare & Superion - deep PE-backed software, M&A integration and operational transformation experience. His background includes consolidating 40+ products onto a single platform. Angela Zhang - DND Director Previously Advent International then GI Partners then Rellevay, investing heavily in technology, software, fintech and payments. Then look at what was already happening: June 2025: DND brought in George Tsivin, Avjit Kamboj and Nikesh Patel specifically to drive transformation, value creation, product rationalization and profitability. June 2026: Tsivin is gone and the Transformation Committee takes over. 2026: A new executive layer emerges around PE and M&A. And earlier this year in March, the company reportedly received whole-company bids from both sponsors and strategics. And here's the REALLY interesting part: Houlihan Lokey - where DND’s new Strategy & Technology chief previously worked - is now advising DND’s lenders! And their new Board Member worked at Advent International, who itself bid $825M for Dye & Durham in 2025! The concentration of PE/M&A/distressed-value-creation expertise around DND right now is getting very hard to ignore! What exactly are they positioning this business for?
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$DND.TO $DYNDF Buy as much as you can under $3.
$DND.TO / $DYNDF 7X TO 9X FROM HERE. THIS IS THE STOCK I HAVE SPENT THE MOST TIME AND RESEARCH ON IN MY INVESTING CAREER. I HAVE SPOKEN TO EVERYONE AND READ EVERYTHING OUT THERE IN THE PUBLIC AND NOT OUT THERE! More than $SPCX, $META, $NOW, $SRPT, $PATH, $TLT etc etc. I recently got access to the April court documents, and it added even more conviction to my thesis. The sales process started in December. By March, DND had reportedly received whole-company bids around C$5.75–$7/share and C$600–765M bids for CFS. But I recently got access to the April court documents, and the history is fascinating. According to the documents / my reading: → CIMs went out for BOTH the whole company and CFS → There was significant buyer interest → Cormark testified the process had materially advanced by late March → Plantro was still trying to buy the whole company → Plantro believed CFS alone could fetch at least $700M → Plantro believed a CFS sale could leave a RemainCo worth C$4.38–$8/share → Plantro offered a $50M bridge to address DND's liquidity concerns And here's the part I find most interesting: The court documents show the fight over Plantro's attempted latest bid ($4.75 cash + $5.50 CFS equity = $10.25 implied value per DND share) wasn't supported by the **Engine-aligned directors were still controlling the board.** Tyler even supported the bid! Those directors are now GONE. George (former CEO installed by previous Engine board) is gone. The Transformation Committee concluded the work. Angela Zhang (Private Equity specialist) is Chair of the Board. Todd Schulte is running the company. Lenders have organized and hired Houlihan Lokey to negotiate. Meanwhile, shareholders approved a **3-year rights plan specifically to protect the sales process.** The strategic process didn't magically become worthless. And the stock is now $0.75. Everyone connected to the process can't buy any shares due to MNPI restrictions. My bet? **DND ultimately lands around C$5–$7/share.** That's roughly **7–9x today's price.** The next FY2026 results come in the next couple of weeks. This is either the dumbest trade I've made, which surprisingly is the deepest research I have ever went on a stock .. or the market is massively mis-pricing the outcome and this will be my most profitable trade of my career!
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$SRPT … This is going back to $50 very soon. My third largest single stock.
Replying to @YaKhmarMajnoon
Here are some of Roche’s slides. Looks the obvious would be Japan but seems alot of Intrnl. 1st, their TAM is 10’s of thousands, no hostile @FDA, probably had luxury of less press & loss of trust by community. $SRPT
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$TLT - flight to safety incoming. Remember military might is why you buy American bonds … not French, not German, not Switzerland… American! Greatest military force ever seen.
JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇮🇱 Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says Iran has restarted its nuclear program and plans to eliminate Israel in the near future.
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Common Sense Investor (CSI) retweeted
Replying to @DyeDurham
@DyeDurham $DND.TO Applying an EV/EBITDA multiple of 14x on an EBITDA of $198 million CAD, combined with a $700 million CAD debt repayment, drives the company's Enterprise Value (EV) to $2.772 billion CAD. from 1.57 to 33 CAD
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Common Sense Investor (CSI) retweeted
Ask yourself: Is this a once-in-a-lifetime trade? If you think you'll see another opportunity just like it in two weeks, why are you betting once-in-a-lifetime money on it? We all want to win so badly that sometimes we force trades that aren't there. That's how you get burned. Be patient, wait for the right opportunity. But when a genuine once-in-a-lifetime trade comes along? That's when you back yourself! Go big or go home!
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Common Sense Investor (CSI) retweeted
If you have no conviction in life, you're a boat without a rudder. You just drift wherever the current takes you. At some point, you need to know where you're going and have the balls to stick to your own course.
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Common Sense Investor (CSI) retweeted
Will Howard Marks be proven right ?
WHY YOU’RE GOING TO LOSE MONEY ON STOCKS THIS DECADE! Legendary investor Howard Marks puts it bluntly: “When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE.” Today the market sits at a 25x P/E. Add inflation… and your “returns” are negative. So what’s Marks doing? Buying bonds! During the 2000–2002 crash: - Long-term Treasuries: +40–45% - NASDAQ: –78% History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it rhymes. We might only be in the first inning of the next pullback. I’m already reallocating heavily into long-term bond ETFs like $TLT and $ZFL.TO, and I think they’ll outperform for years.
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Short interest up 84% and the shorts can only push $DND.TO down 4%? 😂 Good luck getting out when buyout news hits. With a potential transaction announcement looming, who wants to be short heading into the close? Let the covers begin - will be a big rally into the close as always.
$DND.TO short interest exploded into the rally. From Sept. 30 to Oct. 15: Short position: 2.03M to 3.75M shares Net increase: +1.72M shares Increase: +84%!! While the share price went from $1.00 to $2.13 Read that again: The stock more than doubled while shorts added 1.7M shares!! So the rally was not just short covering. Buyers absorbed a massive wave of new short selling and still pushed DND higher. There are now roughly 3.75M shares short, equal to about 5.6% of all shares outstanding - and likely a much larger percentage of the true trading float (Edgepoint, Plantro, One Move own 43% of the float and are all restricted from trading). Not every short is necessarily an outright bearish bet; some may be hedges. But if DND announces a credible CFS sale, whole-company deal or major deleveraging transaction, millions of shares could suddenly need to be bought back into a very tight market!!! This setup could get very violent - short squeeze is definitely in play! Long $DND.TO / $DYNDF.
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If you have no conviction in life, you're a boat without a rudder. You just drift wherever the current takes you. At some point, you need to know where you're going and have the balls to stick to your own course.
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Ask yourself: Is this a once-in-a-lifetime trade? If you think you'll see another opportunity just like it in two weeks, why are you betting once-in-a-lifetime money on it? We all want to win so badly that sometimes we force trades that aren't there. That's how you get burned. Be patient, wait for the right opportunity. But when a genuine once-in-a-lifetime trade comes along? That's when you back yourself! Go big or go home!
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Ask yourself: Is this a once-in-a-lifetime trade? If you think you'll see another opportunity just like it in two weeks, why are you betting once-in-a-lifetime money on it? We all want to win so badly that sometimes we force trades that aren't there. That's how you get burned. Be patient, wait for the right opportunity. But when a genuine once-in-a-lifetime trade comes along? That's when you back yourself! Go big or go home!
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Trade Alert: Just added to my $DND.TO position - trimmed $TLT again. $10k added at $1.61. My position is now at $740k! Largest single stock position. Target price: $5.50 to $10 over the next 2 to 3 weeks.
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Little pullback was a gift - beautiful time to continue accumulating $DND.TO Conviction only grows day by day .. why delay a sale process if there was no sale.
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Common Sense Investor (CSI) retweeted
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Shorts have piled on to $DND.TO (largely algo driven). If Dye and Durham gets any bounce it will rocket!
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Common Sense Investor (CSI) retweeted
MY COMMON SENSE INVESTING PORTFOLIO IS ABSOLUTELY RIPPING TODAY. My 3 biggest positions are on fire: $DND.TO +7% 📈 - 5X potential $FISV +5% 📈 -2.5X potential $TLT +2% 📈 AND THE SHORTS ARE PRINTING TOO. $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS ALL DOWN 5–6%. Long value. Short hype. This is what happens when you buy undervalued assets and bet against overpriced speculation. COMMON SENSE WINS - we are just getting started. Subscribe for full portfolio, live trade alerts and direct dm's.
Common Sense Investing +170% the last 3 years. $SPY: +70%. Nearly 40% annualized while most people just bought the index and hoped for the best. I was shorting bubbles and buying value. Common sense > passive indexing.
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Common Sense Investor (CSI) retweeted
$DND.TO short interest exploded into the rally. From Sept. 30 to Oct. 15: Short position: 2.03M to 3.75M shares Net increase: +1.72M shares Increase: +84%!! While the share price went from $1.00 to $2.13 Read that again: The stock more than doubled while shorts added 1.7M shares!! So the rally was not just short covering. Buyers absorbed a massive wave of new short selling and still pushed DND higher. There are now roughly 3.75M shares short, equal to about 5.6% of all shares outstanding - and likely a much larger percentage of the true trading float (Edgepoint, Plantro, One Move own 43% of the float and are all restricted from trading). Not every short is necessarily an outright bearish bet; some may be hedges. But if DND announces a credible CFS sale, whole-company deal or major deleveraging transaction, millions of shares could suddenly need to be bought back into a very tight market!!! This setup could get very violent - short squeeze is definitely in play! Long $DND.TO / $DYNDF.
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Will Howard Marks be proven right ?
WHY YOU’RE GOING TO LOSE MONEY ON STOCKS THIS DECADE! Legendary investor Howard Marks puts it bluntly: “When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE.” Today the market sits at a 25x P/E. Add inflation… and your “returns” are negative. So what’s Marks doing? Buying bonds! During the 2000–2002 crash: - Long-term Treasuries: +40–45% - NASDAQ: –78% History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it rhymes. We might only be in the first inning of the next pullback. I’m already reallocating heavily into long-term bond ETFs like $TLT and $ZFL.TO, and I think they’ll outperform for years.
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