@EPBResearch

Founder, EPB Research. Business cycle research that helps investors separate economic noise from changes that materially alter recession and market risk.

epbresearch.com/research/?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=bio
Joined February 2015
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5.5KMedia

Why the 10-Year Yield Rose After a "Weak" Jobs Report

The September employment report looked weak at first glance.

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The Economy Can’t Sustain Positive Real Interest Rates Like It Used To

New to EPB Research? Every Sunday, I publish a free research note on where the business cycle stands, what is changing, and whether recession risk is rising or falling.

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Housing Has Been Weak for Years. Why Hasn’t It Caused a Recession?

AI-driven business investment and a large homebuilder profit-margin cushion help explain why the housing downturn has stayed contained.

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Corporate Profits Doubled. Why Didn’t Household Income Fall?

After-tax corporate profits averaged 5.1% of GDP from 1985 through 1995.

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The AI Boom Isn't an Investment Boom

The stock market keeps setting records, but most Americans don't feel any richer. One number explains the gap, and the AI boom is making it worse.

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Corporate profit margins are 19.5%, nearly double the postwar average. This post shows where profits come from.

Where Do Record Corporate Profits Actually Come From?

Before diving into the post, I wanted to let you know that EPB Research has a free Sunday newsletter.

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Every Economic Number Is Either Early or Late. Most of the Famous Ones Are Late.

Before diving into the post, I wanted to let you know that EPB Research has a free Sunday newsletter.

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Build Less, Pay More: What Happened to American Housing

Before diving into the post, I wanted to let you know that EPB Research has a free Sunday newsletter.

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The Stock Market Is Not a Leading Indicator. This Is.

Before diving into the article, I wanted to let you know that EPB Research has a free Sunday newsletter.

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How to Read the GDP Report in 4 Steps

Before diving into the post, I wanted to let you know that EPB Research has a free Sunday newsletter.

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Record Profits, Falling Paychecks

Corporate profit margins just hit 20.6%, the highest level on record.

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The Iran War Just Derailed the Housing Recovery

Housing was stabilizing for the first time in three years. Then the war reignited inflation and pushed mortgage rates higher, threatening the brewing recovery in the economy's most important sector.

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