Edge Point

Rutter's 47' goal sent Brighton from 26% to 54% on Kalshi. That's +28 points. A typical go-ahead goal moves about +23. And the market hasn't stopped. Brighton are up to 61% to win at City.

What moved the market? Blazers 23% → 99% in under an hour. Dame did most of it. 1:24 AM ET: Lillard 3. Blazers 41% → 55%. 1:43 AM: Lillard 4-point play. 45% → 61%. 1:51 AM: Lillard step-back 3. 85% → 97%. Blazers won 136-129 on @Kalshi. Which shot sealed it?

Down 1-0 late, Inter were 2% on Kalshi to beat Fiorentina. Thuram equalized in the 91st minute. Zielinski won it in the 98th. Final: Inter 2, Fiorentina 1.

Musetti wins Lyon. A day after his comeback against Cobolli, he went into the final against Taylor Fritz at 35% on Kalshi. He won it in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4.

Aston Villa were 20% on Kalshi to beat Man City at kickoff. Nicolas Jackson scored both goals, and his winner came eight minutes after Erling Haaland had pulled City level. Villa won 2-1.

One order put $1.14M on the Brewers to win Game 1 yesterday afternoon on Kalshi. Milwaukee had been stuck in the same spot for two days. The price ticked up right after and hasn't come back down since.

Cobolli is into the Lyon semis. Nakashima took the first set, and Kalshi had Cobolli as low as 18%. He won the next two, 6-4, 6-4.

Someone just put $540K on the under in Patriots at Bears on @Kalshi. One order, less than an hour before kickoff.

Someone put $252K on the Bears to win by 3 or more tonight on @Kalshi. All in one order this afternoon, and the price hasn't moved.

Pacers 123, Pelicans 120. Down eight in the fourth quarter, Indiana dropped to 24% on @Kalshi. Siakam finished with 30, and Haliburton's three-point play with 1:23 left put them ahead for good.