EdwarDiGi retweeted
$MSFT: "In Q2, we expect CapEx spend will be over $50 billion. Therefore, for the calendar year, spend should be approximately $170 billion due to the 3P capacity delays noted earlier. In the second half of the fiscal year, we currently expect CapEx spend to accelerate primarily from CPUs, inclusive of higher memory and storage costs, and GPUs, as well as the 3P capacity deliveries that shifted to H2."
EdwarDiGi retweeted
Chief of staff: “okay, sir ur all set to go on stage, just try and stick to the teleprompter today sir.”
Trump’s dementia:
EdwarDiGi retweeted
BREAKING: Anthropic reveals it is developing its own experimental drugs using Claude, targeting rare childhood diseases & various cancers.
EdwarDiGi retweeted
SK Hynix Q3 Earnings Call Q&A:
SK HYNIX SAYS MORE FABS WON'T NECESSARILY MEAN MORE MEMORY CHIPS
During its Q3 earnings call, BofA questioned whether SK Hynix's aggressive fab expansion in Yongin and elsewhere could lead to oversupply if memory demand falls short of expectations.
SK Hynix pushed back, saying new facilities are also needed for technology transitions and production flexibility, meaning more fab capacity won't necessarily translate into proportional supply growth.
The distinction could matter more than investors think as the memory supercycle continues…
[Stay ahead of breaking semiconductor news from Korea and beyond with Antfeed. Download free on iOS and Android]
#SKHynix #BofA #Semiconductors #MemorySupercycle #Chipmaking #메모리반도체 #HBM #DRAM #낸드 #MemoryChips
EdwarDiGi retweeted
Surprise 1: Anthropic acquired a one-person biotech
.
.
.
Surprise 2: that person is me
Surprise 3: I’m here to tell you all about it
Yes, this is what you think it is; after 6 yrs of increasingly loose anonymity: the Professor Oak reveal post
…and yes, it has gotten so boring around here that I’m literally doxxing myself to spice up the timeline
-------
Ok, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Cody Tranbarger. I mostly tweet, but occasionally find time to dabble in drug dev & starting/building biotechs. My past lives span the VC, crossover, startup continuum; Prof Oak has been my way of keeping a digital foot in those worlds, despite having my physical feet planted elsewhere.
The past 18 mo, ‘elsewhere’ was Mithril Medicine, a co. I founded to develop bsAbs for LAMA2-CMD & other ECM-related genetic diseases.
Mithril was born out of hands-on building with @MikeNGladstone, @JasonPaulRhodes, @LifeSciVC, & team @atlasventure. Somehow, I made enough half-decent calls along the way (even a broken clock is right twice a day, eh?) to convince them Mithril/I warranted a small seed. While I can hardly rationalize such an outrageously cavalier bet, I’m grateful for it, & I'd partner with Atlas again in a heartbeat.
In typical AV fashion, Mithril’s primordial form was virtual, decentralized, & ultra-lean. This stage tends to be short-lived, but for Mithril, it worked surprisingly well, for surprisingly long, thanks in part to the rapid maturation of the AI tools I used liberally.
Eventually, Mithril became a bit of an experiment itself - to find the upper bound of how far it could scale as a single operator + a bunch of Claude (+ a stellar bench of part-time consultants).
In parallel, I started spending time with @nc_frey, @an1lam, & @CoefficientBio team; and promptly experienced, for the 1st time, AI at the frontier. Soon thereafter, Mithril stopped looking like an experiment, & started looking like a preview of an entirely new operating model.
From that spark came “Pipeline-in-a-Person.” The idea immediately resonated when we shared it here back in April; and it was central to the shared vision that led to Anthropic’s acquisition of Mithril, & my joining the team.
Why join Anthropic? Three reasons.
(1) For Mithril, the programs continue, with more resources & infrastructure behind them, and as much Claude as I can put to work.
(2) For me, the chance to start several more programs, & find out how many one person can actually run in parallel - an almost unprecedented luxury for a curious drug hunter.
(3) For our mission, a path to institutionalize & scale this new way of working, then put it in the hands of all of biopharma, all over the world - which, candidly, I find the most energizing.
Will AI x Bio cure diseases? Unequivocally yes, imo… but not by the route that gets the most airtime. Rather than timeline acceleration & compression, I see orchestration & parallelization as today's low-hanging fruit.
Most drug hunters see a handful of go/no-go calls in a career, & spend entirely too much of the rest trading emails (my inbox can attest).
Give them the bandwidth to run several programs at once, and the time to focus on scientific judgment, and I’m willing to bet they’ll make better calls. And at scale, better calls translate to more drugs, higher hit rates, broader patient impact, & likely, a disease or 10 or 100 cured. I couldn't be more excited to build toward that future @AnthropicAI.
Finally, a heartfelt thank you to BioTwitter/X. The end of anonymity is bittersweet, but if anyone’s earned a proper introduction, you all have.
It’s difficult to overstate how much this app has done for me: a decade of education, plenty of friends, many job opportunities, several mentors, a few investors, even a co-founder (fmr). It was the generosity of this community that inspired me to start posting 6 years ago, after just as many years lurking. I hope I’ve been able to pay it forward, in my own small way.
But, to be clear, Prof Oak isn’t going anywhere. Same beat, same themes, and now, a front-row seat to drug development at the frontier. Stay tuned for dispatches from the trenches; and remember...
Gotta Cure 'Em All
EdwarDiGi retweeted
Over the past few months, Anthropic scientists have engaged in deep research partnerships with six organizations developing new medicines. We've also begun drug discovery efforts of our own.
In doing so, we’ve learned much more about how Claude can support the many stages of drug development.
In this blog post, we share some early results from these efforts, and describe how this work fits in with our wider ambitions in the life sciences.
anthropic.com/research/early…
EdwarDiGi retweeted
Woah, stellar earnings from and AI market projections...
1. SK Hynix: "Memory supply shortage to persist through 2030".
2. There's the $4.8B operating profit beat ($62.8B vs. ~$58B est)... 80% operating margins.
So you had:
- Revenue: $78.84B vs. $74.02B
- Operating profit: $62.80B vs. $58.00B
- Operating margin: 79.7% vs. 78.3%
With forward projections of
3. "Our DRAM and HBM volumes through 2029 are effectively sold out."
4. Signed LTAs covering 50%+ of 2027–2028 capacity, while retaining pricing flexibility
5. The company intends to fulfill its commitment to return 50%+ of cumulative FCF for 2025-2027
6. "We have included deposits and other practical enforcement mechanisms" (LTAs have actual enforcement)
7. "We expect the profitability gap between HBM and conventional DRAM to narrow significantly" (hello broader memory industry)
8. SK Hynix announced $75B in shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks) for CY2026.
I'm not sure what there isn't to like here?
You have a memory company just printing... demand visibility super high from enforceable commitments... and now they're returning that via dividends/buybacks.
Oh look… more memory durability evidence for $MU and co.
Following the news of $GOOGL, other CSPs such as Alibaba, Tencent, Bytedance, and are now negotiating memory LTAs with $SKHY and Samsung.
Some customers are reportedly pushing for 10 year contracts as well, into 2035.
“As U.S. companies move to secure memory supplies first, Chinese tech giants are joining the race.”
Source: Maeil News
Don't you think it's a bit strange for your hyperscalers (especially Chinese big tech) to seek LTAs 10 years out…
If there's claims of CXMT + YMTC DRAM/NAND overflooding in 2028-2029?
EdwarDiGi retweeted
SK HYNIX:
- HAS SIGNED LTAS WITH 14 MAJOR CUSTOMERS, INCLUDING LARGE GLOBAL CSPs.
- THE STANDARD CONTRACT TERM IS FIVE YEARS, WITH DISCUSSIONS UNDERWAY WITH SOME CUSTOMERS TO EXTEND EXISTING CONTRACT TERMS.
- PRICING GENERALLY REFLECTS MARKET CONDITIONS WITHIN A RANGE AGREED UPON WITH EACH CUSTOMER.
- THE AGREEMENTS INCLUDE DEPOSITS AND OTHER MECHANISMS TO ENSURE CONTRACT FULFILLMENT.
- VOLUMES CURRENTLY SECURED UNDER LTAS ACCOUNT FOR MORE THAN 50% OF TOTAL CAPACITY IN EACH OF 2027 AND 2028.
EdwarDiGi retweeted
This is 255 seconds of the US President speaking in explicitly homoerotic terms—including simulated fellatio and ass-grabbing—about a candidate for Senate.
It’s difficult to watch—like a car accident. Try and read it.
“I said, wait a minute. You got to be kidding. He's like, very quiet. And I never really looked at him because it's never been my thing to look at men, but I like men, but I've never been particularly attracted. Sorry.
And what I do is I call like, I'm going to call Ken up, say a couple of words and he'll say a couple of words. So I called John up and again, John Gruden just, in fact, he said something that was amazing because he's such a fine man.
John used that is as the Senator, but he's running for reelection against a real sleazebag who got thrown out years ago, defeated by Bernie Marino, who's a great Senator, but he was defeated. So he was thrown and now he's running again against John. And I called John up, but John Gruden said one thing that got me and I couldn't believe it because you know, it's such a high quality person.
He said in the football games, he would rip people's heads off when he tackled them. He was so tough. He would just, I said, was he the best? He said he was the best player on the team. And that's why I'm here. I was surprised to see him. I said, what do you do there? I'm here to be with my teammate.
John Husted. He said, yeah, he was the best. He was an all American. And a few people understood that when I started talking about him, guy shot. He was an all American, sir. And so, but he was, he's a humble guy. So he didn't talk about it. So I brought him up and he started speaking. Thank you very much. Very much. And you know, he said a few words and I was standing right here and I'm studying him because John Gruden is a great coach.
One of the best said that this guy's one of the best players he's ever been associated with. Best player on a championship team, all America. And I never knew he even played football. So I'm studying him.
And I made the mistake of saying that I started off by studying his ass. I just want to say.
And then I looked at his feet and they were massive. Then I looked at his hands, see these hands.
He's a nice head. They're fine. He had fingers like sausages. I looked at his hands. I said, look at it guys.
And then I patted him on the shoulder. I said, great job, John. He said a few words. I said, great job. And I hurt my hand. It was like I was hitting steel, but I made the mistake of studying his anatomy and explaining it to the audience and the audience loved it. By the way, he went up 12 points that day.
He went from being down to being up. Maybe I should do that with Ken Paxton, but I'm not sure your body is going to qualify. I'm going to do it with Ken. No, but I would say so what happens is so John leaves. I told us everybody had fun, you know, but the people appreciate it because they didn't know. A lot of them didn't know. 95% didn't know.
And the fake news did it to me. They only covered the ass part.
They said, they said, this is news cable freaks. And I think ABC fake news, one of the worst. And they said, what the hell was Trump doing talking about a man's anatomy? What, what's his problem? What's why is he doing this?
And I explained it. He was talking about his ass and his feet. What was he doing? You know what I was in and they know, but they actually had me and they'd only say I studied his ass after that.
It was to see where the power came from because he was a violent tackler anyway, but they did it to me beautifully. That's no different than walking into walls and saying, Oh, my wife said, Oh my, are you okay, darling? So no, they're fake news. That's why I came up with that term.
That was my term. We have a lot of good terms. I could give you a lot of them. Pocahontas.”
EdwarDiGi retweeted
SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY $STX Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $4.2B (Est. $4.14B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $7.68 (Est. $7.42) 🟢
🔹 Gross Margin: 57.8%
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $1.5B
Q2 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $4.8B +/- $100M (Est. $4.53B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $9.20 +/- $0.20 (Est. $8.58) 🟢
Other Q1 Metrics:
🔹 Cash Flow From Operations: $1.7B
🔹 GAAP EPS: $7.59
Capital Return:
🔹 Returned to Shareholders: $568M
🔹 Quarterly Dividend: $0.76/share
Comments:
🔸 “Seagate delivered another quarter of record profitability and our highest ever free cash flow in the September quarter, demonstrating the earnings power of our business amid a strengthening demand environment.”
🔸 “Data creation, retention and reuse continue to compound storage demand with long term customer demand visibility reinforcing our view of a multi-year growth phase.”
EdwarDiGi retweeted
Putin has invited Zelenskyy to Moscow for in person negotiations and assured Europeans leaders he would have all of the necessary security protections and immunity.
EdwarDiGi retweeted
Gavin Baker says the Anthropic S-1 will break a lot of investors' brains
"The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized."
"Anthropic is generating cash. They're profitable. Open source tokens are profitable. OpenAI, if they're not generating cash, they will be imminently. SpaceX, same thing."
"These macro and value investors are ignorant. They're very smart, but they're ignorant of the facts. They're making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular financing bonfire."
"They're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone."
"It's saying I'm very bearish on the world economy because oil is at $500 a barrel. If oil was at $500 a barrel, that'd be a good reason to be bearish. It's just not. They're just wrong. The central fact is wrong."
EdwarDiGi retweeted
Oh look… more memory durability evidence for $MU and co.
Following the news of $GOOGL, other CSPs such as Alibaba, Tencent, Bytedance, and are now negotiating memory LTAs with $SKHY and Samsung.
Some customers are reportedly pushing for 10 year contracts as well, into 2035.
“As U.S. companies move to secure memory supplies first, Chinese tech giants are joining the race.”
Source: Maeil News
Don't you think it's a bit strange for your hyperscalers (especially Chinese big tech) to seek LTAs 10 years out…
If there's claims of CXMT + YMTC DRAM/NAND overflooding in 2028-2029?
$GOOGL is now discussing deals to extend their memory LTAs through 2035 from KeyBanc channel checks.
Samsung already has 70% of their capacity allocated through 2031, and this move would suggest a more durable cycle for $MU, $SKHY, and the others.
They also expect HBM prices up 80% to 100% in the Q1 2027.
Having all your capacity potentially allocated out into 2035 via LTAs would ease a lot of memory durability fears.
EdwarDiGi retweeted
Republicans spend years telling everyone, “Trump was just joking! Why can't you take a joke?”
Then Obama makes one Cheesecake Factory joke, and they lose their minds for days.
EdwarDiGi retweeted
$SKHY $CXMT
Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance already buy DRAM from CXMT on multi-year contracts. Now Maeil Business Newspaper reports they're asking Samsung and SK hynix for server memory through 2035, about twice the five-year term reported on ByteDance's $7bn CXMT deal.
Jukan picked out the right detail here. The usual long-term agreement runs three to five years, and some of these buyers want ten.
The order matters, because CXMT went first. Its July prospectus names Alibaba Cloud, ByteDance and Tencent among its end customers, and an Alibaba Cloud unit took IPO shares with a 36-month lockup. Tencent reportedly signed a supply deal worth about $3bn with CXMT in June, and ByteDance signed one for about $7bn over up to five years in July. By August, MK was reporting that CXMT had refused Apple a price cut on LPDDR5X and was quoting at or above Samsung and SK hynix prices, since so much of its capacity was already committed to Chinese tech companies.
So the ask to Korea is for what's left once CXMT is booked. Three things we read from it.
1. CXMT is sold out at its current size. It had 9.5% of global DRAM revenue in Q2, per TrendForce. Samsung and SK hynix had 64.3% between them (chart 2). A supplier that's fully booked and won't discount can't cover the next leg of demand, however much its own shareholders and customers would like it to.
2. The length of the contract says where buyers feel least secure. The CXMT deals run up to five years, while the Korea ask runs to 2035 (chart 1). You lock in longest the supply you're least sure you can get later. For a Chinese buyer that's the foreign supplier, whose shipments depend on export rules in Washington as well as on prices in Seoul.
3. The product list stops at the export-control line. The request as reported covers server DDR and LPDDR, and MK says the LPDDR is for AI servers, where it saves power. HBM shipments to China have needed a US license since December 2024, so the memory that sits next to the AI chip can't go into a contract like this anyway.
For CXMT, this reads as a capacity limit. Its biggest customers already buy from it, pay its prices and own its shares. They just need more than it can make. TrendForce, citing Taiwan's Commercial Times, has CXMT going from about 320k wafers a month now to 420k by 2027.
This is a request reported by Korean press citing industry sources. None of the companies have confirmed it and nothing is signed yet.
If CXMT really does reach 420k wafers a month in 2027, how much of a contract running to 2035 will these buyers still want from Samsung and SK hynix?
KOREAN MEDIA: MAJOR CHINESE CLOUD SERVICE PROVIDERS (CSPS), INCLUDING ALIBABA, TENCENT, AND BYTEDANCE, HAVE REQUESTED LONG-TERM SUPPLY AGREEMENTS (LTAS) FOR SERVER MEMORY FROM SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS AND SK HYNIX.
BEYOND THE TYPICAL THREE-TO-FIVE-YEAR TERM, SOME CUSTOMERS ARE SEEKING ULTRA-LONG-TERM CONTRACTS SECURING MEMORY SUPPLIES FOR 10 YEARS THROUGH 2035. THE REQUESTED LTAS COVER DDR5 AND LPDDR5.
EdwarDiGi retweeted
$msft
The reason Wall St. has so much trouble understanding the ROI of AI (which is so blatantly obvious) is because the workflows of equity analysts don’t align. It’s not a knock, but it is the reality.
If you’re mostly in Bloomberg/FactSet, reading research, using Claude to generate research and financial models, your lived experience on the impact of AI will be very different than how a high agency corporate executive will see it.
Most equity analysts have never interacted with an ERP, CRM, Supply Chain, HCM software, tried getting cross-functional teams (R&D, legal, compliance, purchasing, accounting, etc) on same page across org. It takes/wastes a LOT of time. The impact that AI can have on improving accuracy, speed, while also reducing costs is mind boggling.
This is a good example: 45x engineers. Engineers now doing 45x more per engineer. Assuming 300k comp, that is $13m in more output. ROI is obvious.
My take from the Anthropic S1 today is that they are no longer reading all their code. Even for the engineers directing AIs to create it, they're not reading every line. This should be obvious to everyone by now, but I suspect some engineers are still in denial.
Two direct quotes lead me to this: "over 90% of the contributions to our codebase in September 2026 were written by Claude." and "the average daily volume of code contributed to our codebase per engineer in the three months ended September 30, 2026 was over 45 times the average daily volume in the year ended December 31, 2024."
For a company with some of the best engineers on the planet, they're creating 45x the volume from before. I guarantee you they can't actually read all of that.
You have to pull the humans up to a higher level of abstraction to get that kind of velocity.
But why they don’t go after the cheap Chinese suppliers? Something does not add up here
KOREAN MEDIA: MAJOR CHINESE CLOUD SERVICE PROVIDERS (CSPS), INCLUDING ALIBABA, TENCENT, AND BYTEDANCE, HAVE REQUESTED LONG-TERM SUPPLY AGREEMENTS (LTAS) FOR SERVER MEMORY FROM SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS AND SK HYNIX.
BEYOND THE TYPICAL THREE-TO-FIVE-YEAR TERM, SOME CUSTOMERS ARE SEEKING ULTRA-LONG-TERM CONTRACTS SECURING MEMORY SUPPLIES FOR 10 YEARS THROUGH 2035. THE REQUESTED LTAS COVER DDR5 AND LPDDR5.
EdwarDiGi retweeted
KOREAN MEDIA: MAJOR CHINESE CLOUD SERVICE PROVIDERS (CSPS), INCLUDING ALIBABA, TENCENT, AND BYTEDANCE, HAVE REQUESTED LONG-TERM SUPPLY AGREEMENTS (LTAS) FOR SERVER MEMORY FROM SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS AND SK HYNIX.
BEYOND THE TYPICAL THREE-TO-FIVE-YEAR TERM, SOME CUSTOMERS ARE SEEKING ULTRA-LONG-TERM CONTRACTS SECURING MEMORY SUPPLIES FOR 10 YEARS THROUGH 2035. THE REQUESTED LTAS COVER DDR5 AND LPDDR5.
EdwarDiGi retweeted
Consider how tone deaf and devoid of insight the media was to fixate on the meaningless $80 billion net loss figure, driven by an unimportant noncash convertible charge, instead of focusing on the company's actual underlying business fundamentals.
Is the media this clueless, deceptive, or simply incompetent? None of the answers is good.
EdwarDiGi retweeted
Chart of the daily moves in $EWZ. One for the history books.
Lula was already leading the polls in the first round. To see $EWZ now fall more than it gained on Bolsonaro is a bit overdone.
I’m staying long Brazilian stocks.
