Crypto: a growing but under-contested prediction market category atm in the U.S. @Kalshi with 99% of a category worth 17% of total U.S. contract volume in last 30 days, per @EilersKrejcik tracking. Short-resolution @Bitcoin markets alone driving 88% of Kalshi crypto contract volume. @Polymarket U.S. latest to launch crypto contracts; no short-resolution markets yet.

Three quick thoughts on Missouri's #sportsbetting ballot measure, which is set to usher in retail and online wagering by Dec. 1, 2025: 1. ATTRACTIVE TAM. We project a Year 5 OSB market of $548mm in GGR, implying GGR-per-adult of ~$121, which we regard as conservative. We see TAM as large enough, and fees / taxes as reasonable enough, to attract large and mid-sized operators, as well as smaller operators. Toward that end, there will be 21 online licenses. 2. ATTRACTIVE FEES AND TAXES. License fees are low ($500k initial fee, 5-year term). Moreover, using some reasonable assumptions regarding tax-deductible items (e.g., promotional credits, uncollectible receivables, federal excise taxes), we get to an effective OSB GGR tax rate of ~5.8% across Years 1-5. That's well—more like far—below the national average (~21%). 3. WINNERS. $FLUT and $DKNG are likely, in our view, to get the state's two untethered online licenses. Assuming that's the case, the very low effective GGR tax, together with the absence of market access cost (i.e., no NGR sharing with casino or sports team partners), could make Missouri one of the highest-margin OSB-only markets for both operators.