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Despite Alaska voting for Trump by 13.1 points in 2024, Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan 49.4%–48.2% in the RCP polling average. Her crossover appeal is significant: she leads unaffiliated voters by 22 points in one survey and moderates 51%–33% in another. The race remains tight.
Despite polling suggesting a blue wave, especially in the GA Senate race, Rick Jackson’s strong campaign, consistent outfunding of Keisha Lance Bottoms, cross-over support, and ability to maintain a distance from Trump indicate a very close race for the governorship.
Iowa’s Senate race is among the tightest toss-ups. Ashley Hinson has moved toward the center, condemning Vivek Ramaswamy’s ad despite Trump’s defense and distancing herself on economic issues. Josh Turek faces considerable headwinds in this ruby red, republican state.
Kansas remains a toss-up, but its Republican lean poses challenges for Adam Hamilton against Roger Marshall. Strong early voting and urban/suburban gains may not offset rural GOP margins and Republican-leaning Election Day turnout. Polling remains close.
Despite enthusiasm for Jolly, Florida's demographics and Cuban-American electorate may limit its shift relative to the nation. Republicans maintain polling leads in both statewide races, although Jolly appears more competitive than Angie Nixon in the Senate race.
In 12 days, the 2026 Midterm Elections will take place. Our final ratings suggest a Democratic wave, but several races remain competitive, and the outcome will be closely contested nationwide.
After recent controversy revolving Vivek Ramaswamy's (R) ad involving Amy Acton's (D) estranged mother, we are now categorizing Ohio's governor race has lean blue, following bipartisan backlash.
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The CNN–Jubilee town hall reinforces Talarico’s emerging front-runner status, with a new polls showing him leading 50–47%. His ability to reconcile econ populism with social moderation reflects his appeal to Texas’s electorate, particularly independents and moderate Republicans.
Hamilton is gaining traction over Marshall 50%–48% in a September poll, and has raised $4.17 million, and secured endorsements from two former Republican governors, Mike Hayden and Bill Graves
Sen. John Cornyn tells @ramsberry1 he won't vote for fellow Texas Republican Bo French following racist posts.
"He's an embarrassment to the Republican Party, and he's going to drag the whole ticket down because of his racist comments."
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Polling Not Getting Better for Republicans
“There’s been little improvement in the Republicans’ polling position as the end of summer looms, with Democrats hitting a new high for the cycle in generic ballot polling averages.”
“Eight House rating changes in favor of Democrats push them a little closer to 218 in our ratings and the Republicans a little further away.”
Link to article: centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
Latino voters may be shifting back toward Democrats, but not to their pre-2020 levels, suggesting some of the losses under Biden and Harris have stuck.
Klobuchar won Minnesota by 15.7 points in 2024, compared with Harris’s 4.2-point win, an 11.5-point overperformance. That makes a ~15-point win in the governor’s race in a democratic wave pretty plausible.
