Project Manager @maristpoll. Election Analysis Fellow @VoteHub. Occasional writing on Substack. Marist '30
San Diego, CA
Joined June 2023
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In Kansas' Senate race, the candidate quality gap favors:
94%Adam Hamilton
6%Roger Marshall
179 votes • 12 hours Ellis Bates retweeted
How did Lula come from behind to crush Bolsonaro?
In short, turnout.
Bolsonaro's vote share barely moved. Lula banked millions of votes from those who didn't vote in 1st round and won eliminated candidates' votes.
A remarkable mobilisation. 2nd round turnout usually below 1st.
A key factor in Lula’s Round 2 victory: states where he had the highest Round 1 vote shares generally shifted most toward him, and vice versa.
Rio de Janeiro was the biggest outlier: he won 39% in Round 1 but gained 7.4 points, the largest swing of any state.
Ellis Bates retweeted
Thank you to everyone who followed along tonight at ElectionEnjoyer.com.
This Brazilian election has been one of the craziest I’ve ever followed. Be sure to tune in to VoteHub’s live coverage of the midterm elections next week!
Brazil’s presidential runoff is razor-thin. With over 50% of valid votes counted, Lula narrowly leads Bolsonaro and has improved on his Round 1 margins in every state.
.@ElxMapping’s estimate gives Lula a 94% chance of winning.
In Florida's Senate race, the candidate quality gap favors:
61%Ashley Moody
39%Angie Nixon
764 votes • Final results Ellis Bates retweeted
NEW: Inside VoteHub’s 2026 Donor Map
@ryanjmccomb examines the small-dollar gap, the geography of Republican and Democratic giving, and how campaign money flows across state lines.
votehub.com/2026/10/24/insid…
Ellis Bates retweeted
Really proud of what the whole team and I have built here. We get to do some incredible things at VoteHub!
Here’s a walkthrough of the new donor map and a bit of analysis on where campaign money is coming from this cycle.
Ellis Bates retweeted
With Texas Senate turnout set to approach presidential levels, it's worth examining 2024 nonvoters.
Hispanic voters are streaming into the electorate at remarkable rates, alongside Asian voters. Both groups are expected to favor Talarico and Hinojosa.
Ellis Bates retweeted
This isn't entirely surprising! VoteHub fellow @ElliscbIV wrote an excellent article examining how Black turnout could surge (and did surge in primaries) following the Callais decision.
votehub.com/2026/07/28/a-pos…
Black voters make up 32% of Louisiana’s population and are matching that share in early voting so far, just 4 points below their 36% share of the primary electorate.
As Black voters respond to Callais, differential turnout poses a growing risk for Republicans in the Deep South.
Ellis Bates retweeted
It’s true a large number of “Democrats” are going to vote for Mike Rogers. But you can also expect there to be “Republicans” voting for Abdul El-Sayed. Both candidates are reaching across the aisle in the final days of their campaigns.
This ad perfectly encapsulates the risky bet Democrats made in nominating El-Sayed:
Gaining access to a unique type of messaging that Stevens could never deliver.
A head-turning new "Michigan First" ad from @AbdulElSayed - he names some issue he agrees with MAGA voters on, then plays a supercut of Fox News hosts/Tucker praising him or bashing Mike Rogers. semafor.com/article/10/23/20…
Ellis Bates retweeted
Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the problem in Texas isn't Paxton; it's the GOP collapse due to Trump's decision to govern like George W. Bush. See the Governor's race.
