
Ameya Deosthali differentiated insights for value investing Business Enquiries : [email protected]
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Joined August 2024
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My take on position sizing , very less spoken about when it comes to process building
Understanding this opens up lot more non linearity of gains
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Two notes I read every single morning , usually I keep this side of my personality on Substack , but I thought it might be useful
Steve jobs and Man in the Arena
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I still manually listen to all earnings calls in my coverage and put out my notes here for you all to see , Can easily do AI notes, but they don't capture the qualitative information and even the actual sense of management commentary , I listen to AI notes for non coverage , or just quick reads
Its hard work , but rewarding
Don’t fall for commentary based reactive research , lot of people on X actually just are doing commentary on the market without any individual ideation or research depth
Avoid this long term as it keeps you engaged for sure but never creates value
I still manually listen to all earnings calls in my coverage and put out my notes here for you all to see , Can easily do AI notes, but they don't capture the qualitative information and even the actual sense of management commentary , I listen to AI notes for non coverage , or just quick reads
Its hard work , but rewarding
Two notes I read every single morning , usually I keep this side of my personality on Substack , but I thought it might be useful
Steve jobs and Man in the Arena
A great company was once a good company that found a way to pivot into better value chains and increased product/process efficiencies and participate in higher value products using their expertise and evolve when required against odds
That's why I always look for companies that are transitioning the nature of the business using cash flows from original business to participate into more value add and higher value chain , this is what causes major trajectory shift in earnings , and hence makes the most money for us , this rate of change !
ValueEquity retweeted
Lots of sectoral notes also coming your way as more peers results get declared , so we get to see the industry specific trends , both in optimistic and sectors where peak pessimism is playing out , lot more coverage earrings coming next week as well
Dynamatic Tech, what a journey it has been , especially from the time they started , as I titled my note on the company as well " Daring to dream against all odds, the risks worth taking" , congrats on what you have built and forged over the years @UTobyM , would love to meet you someday and learn !
And folks if you want to read my note I wrote in Feb on the journey of Dynamatic from 1990's and what they are building , check the link below :
valueequityin.substack.com/p…
Forty years completed at @DynamaticTech.
Times were very different when I started working. Capital was scarce in pre-liberalisation India, markets were under-developed, and OEMs held monopolistic buying power over small suppliers.
Day-to-day survival for a small tractor-parts maker was tough. That’s why we ventured deep into India’s rural hinterland—to build our own independent aftermarket for hydraulic pumps, directly at the grassroots.
OneSource Pharma , good set of numbers , Usually I like listening to this call not only for the company but Neeraj and team give very good market dynamics on GLP, biologics and more , so will be posting my key notes as well here by EOD
No reco
ValueEquity retweeted
EU+1 is the real theme , there are a lot of plants being shut down across sectors in chemicals , forgings and more , look at Indian companies that can take that market and not only do business in EU , but use EU as a global platform to expand , just EU is not enough
Now EU books are building out a huge defence capex , approved vendors will rush for bids
EU+1 is the real theme , there are a lot of plants being shut down across sectors in chemicals , forgings and more , look at Indian companies that can take that market and not only do business in EU , but use EU as a global platform to expand , just EU is not enough
Now EU books are building out a huge defence capex , approved vendors will rush for bids
Lots of sectoral notes also coming your way as more peers results get declared , so we get to see the industry specific trends , both in optimistic and sectors where peak pessimism is playing out , lot more coverage earrings coming next week as well
ValueEquity retweeted
You cannot buy a stock thinking it will be a multi-bagger , you are merely rewarded for a process that sets the highest probability for strong outcomes , many times you won’t know which stock can surprise you the most , but process that is strong enables this optionality to reveal multibaggers
The return is the reward of the process that enables asymmetric returns
Process > one stock
ValueEquity retweeted
Ramkrishna Forgings Capex tracker , mapping the capex and earnings push
source : internal research
disc: biased from lower levels , no reco, dyod
Paytm very good numbers in Q1 , so far very good numbers from our coverage
Notes Tommorow
Disc : no reco , own from more than 2 years from much lower levels , biased
ValueEquity retweeted
Filter the good company in a bad cycle , track the capex , watch for early signs of industry structure , see how business is positioned to capture the cycle , wait for capex inflection point ( plant crossing 30% ) , map out incremental PAT , and play the theme
Industry structure is what defines the PAT growth , a good company in a bad industry will remain a good business but a bad stock , my opinion
ValueEquity retweeted
Books must read, re sharing my list , as many of you have sent me emails on this:
All of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Investing from Darwin Pulak prasad , Richer Wiser happier and Books on Probabilities and financial history of central banks and Capital returns to understand capital cycles , thinking fast and slow
RBI governers - Gokul rathi , The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest Book by Edward Chancellor Zurich Axioms, The Halo Effect and Against the gods Zurich Axioms : a book that changes my perception on risk every time I read it , risk as a word is very misunderstood
Podcast: founders podcast , Nicolai Tangen Norges bank podcast
Theres a saying as well that one must study a war general and their tactics to learn as well , even recently watching the Movie Odyssey reminded me of so many lessons that I could apply to the world of investing Alot about investing is learnt from the non finance books , character , courage and persistence !
So much learning available if we are willing to do it , that is why I also incorporate a lot of the learnings I have on my substack audio notes along with the businesses I cover , so do check it out if you are interested !
substack.com/@valueequityin
You cannot buy a stock thinking it will be a multi-bagger , you are merely rewarded for a process that sets the highest probability for strong outcomes , many times you won’t know which stock can surprise you the most , but process that is strong enables this optionality to reveal multibaggers
The return is the reward of the process that enables asymmetric returns
Process > one stock
Filter the good company in a bad cycle , track the capex , watch for early signs of industry structure , see how business is positioned to capture the cycle , wait for capex inflection point ( plant crossing 30% ) , map out incremental PAT , and play the theme
Industry structure is what defines the PAT growth , a good company in a bad industry will remain a good business but a bad stock , my opinion















