Two notes I read every single morning , usually I keep this side of my personality on Substack , but I thought it might be useful Steve jobs and Man in the Arena

I still manually listen to all earnings calls in my coverage and put out my notes here for you all to see , Can easily do AI notes, but they don't capture the qualitative information and even the actual sense of management commentary , I listen to AI notes for non coverage , or just quick reads Its hard work , but rewarding

Lots of sectoral notes also coming your way as more peers results get declared , so we get to see the industry specific trends , both in optimistic and sectors where peak pessimism is playing out , lot more coverage earrings coming next week as well

EU+1 is the real theme , there are a lot of plants being shut down across sectors in chemicals , forgings and more , look at Indian companies that can take that market and not only do business in EU , but use EU as a global platform to expand , just EU is not enough Now EU books are building out a huge defence capex , approved vendors will rush for bids

You cannot buy a stock thinking it will be a multi-bagger , you are merely rewarded for a process that sets the highest probability for strong outcomes , many times you won’t know which stock can surprise you the most , but process that is strong enables this optionality to reveal multibaggers The return is the reward of the process that enables asymmetric returns Process > one stock

Ramkrishna Forgings Capex tracker , mapping the capex and earnings push source : internal research disc: biased from lower levels , no reco, dyod

Filter the good company in a bad cycle , track the capex , watch for early signs of industry structure , see how business is positioned to capture the cycle , wait for capex inflection point ( plant crossing 30% ) , map out incremental PAT , and play the theme Industry structure is what defines the PAT growth , a good company in a bad industry will remain a good business but a bad stock , my opinion

Books must read, re sharing my list , as many of you have sent me emails on this: All of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Investing from Darwin Pulak prasad , Richer Wiser happier and Books on Probabilities and financial history of central banks and Capital returns to understand capital cycles , thinking fast and slow RBI governers - Gokul rathi , The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest Book by Edward Chancellor Zurich Axioms, The Halo Effect and Against the gods Zurich Axioms : a book that changes my perception on risk every time I read it , risk as a word is very misunderstood Podcast: founders podcast , Nicolai Tangen Norges bank podcast Theres a saying as well that one must study a war general and their tactics to learn as well , even recently watching the Movie Odyssey reminded me of so many lessons that I could apply to the world of investing Alot about investing is learnt from the non finance books , character , courage and persistence ! So much learning available if we are willing to do it , that is why I also incorporate a lot of the learnings I have on my substack audio notes along with the businesses I cover , so do check it out if you are interested ! substack.com/@valueequityin

Sunflag Iron and Steel , Capabilty Stack and nature of clients that they have gotten some vendor approvals from and are in early stages facilities like Electro Slag Refining (ESR); Vacuum Induction Melting (VIM) and Vacuum Arc Remelting (VAR), which cater to Nuclear, Aerospace and Defence sectors. During the year 2025-26, the following grades were developed 1.Bearing grades for ball application; 2. Ingot route large RCS blocks grade 17CrNiMo6 for forging; 3. High temperature application Valve steel 21-4N; 4.Large size tool steels and Die Steels; 5. Superalloys Inconel 625; 6. AMS 6509 Aerospace application has strengthened its technical capabilities and earned vendor approvals from leading organizations including VSSC, LPSC, HAL, BrahMos, DRDO, DRDL, NPCIL, Solar Industries, Paras Defence, HYT Innovatives, Adani Defence, and global OEMs. Just contextualise the annual report of last year vs this year , you will see the big diffrence , This+ Lloyds metals stake -Holdco discount +7/10 promoter , there is a lot to unpack here I have also laid out my detailed opinions on substack , you can listen to my audio note covering the business there ! link: substack.com/home/post/p-217… disc: no reco , biased , do your own due diligence and research , take opinion with salt

My advantage is not IQ it is trigger pulling; I have a narrow form of intelligence that allows me to love and play this game - Stanley Druckenmiller Many times I say as well that when valuations are at a discount courage is at a premium , it is very easy to back CDMO , Aerospace today , because themes are consensus and now valuations are so expensive , but when 2 years back many where in Capex phase , courage was missing in those same who are calling it structural today ! Smartest will not win in this game , but disciplined backed courage wins Courage beats intellect in reward , learnt that very quick

Lets see if we got the bottom , I think this will either age to be fine wine , or a meme , nothing in between

Aerospace , if you want to understand the Indian market these are things you should read/watch ( reposting this ) 1) Aequs DRHP ( for the data only on latest trends ) 2) Dynamatic Annual reports ( last 3 years )+ AGM of last year Video is there on you tube 3) HAL Annual reports last 3 years and Bharat Shakti Youtube channel for on ground management Interviews of smaller co's 4) Ideaforge and Zen for smaller co's , read their investor presentations and product catalogues for capabilty mapping 5) Azad/PTC for their Deep industry capabilities in niche turbines and Titanium forging 6) Unimech to understand the MRO market plus tooling's hour business 7)Defence Ministry annual report 8) OEM Investor presentations ( Airbus and Boeing ) 9) Certification depth ( NADCAP/AS9100) Valuing such lumpy business is a different thing , but these will give you good groundwork eading this much will give you good broader context on the industry , use this as a context builder so you can understand the developments in this space with more depth, as many of these companies are already up this is not advice at all , but a starting point to learn about the industry

Laurus Labs and Aarvik Therapeutics , lets see what is the interesting work that goes on at Aarvik , Aarvik has very interesting and science backed proprietary MUTTA™ platform and next-generation Antibody-Drug Conjugate (ADC) technology , that separates their technology in ADC from the original GEN1 and Gen2 ADC's , they also have an Aqualink platform Aarvik along with Arrivent Biopharma will present AV-P138-ADC , a novel ADC , for treatment of Ovarian and Endometrial cancers ARR002 , a novel site specific conjugated mechanism , ( this was discovered by Aarvik in partnership with Arrivent , who subsequently globally licensed the molecule for global development Laurus has invested in them in the seed 2 stage , for laurus this is a deep capability investment that enables them to gain and learn these high science ADC technology that can given them a significant edge in their own product development and learnings as well Now why this is important , and I write about this even after being a shareholder for 4 years , is how actively management keep investing and broadening the capability depth , when laurus was a pure ARV play very few could have visualised them going into such high precision ADC tech and focusing on large modalities with capacity first approach This might be bit technical , but just something I found very interesting reading about Aarvik

There is no better time to be an original thinker than today , while most people are outsourcing thinking and reading to prompts , there is an edge being created in the fundamental qualitiatives that is going to be larger in nature Almost 8/10 conversations with folks from the industry are telling me " We have our own internal model " that AI has fueled that is giving us a lot of time , but many are just outsourcing thinking without context Taking a data aggregator subscription wont solve your problems , thinking will, use the AI to sharpen the thinking not to replace it! AI is so strong when we use it in the right way to add to our originallity and strengthen on existing originality but unfortunately many are approaching it as a one stop outsourcing package, be authentic !

Tonbo Imaging , global peer mapping with product range

Every company that claims they are a Niche specialty CDMO company is not one , there are very few that can do complex synthesis , flow chemistry stages , take the full life cycle of the molecule , most are just non-CDMO's using this buzzword for better looking investor presentations Seeing this used in companies that have negligible R&D , they are nothing but a contract manufacturer Capability depth + Capacity width is what matters

Coforge , the man in the arena , great Q2 numbers, we have been discussing this for a bit now..

In these times in this aggressive selling in the broader markets , market does not see good or bad companies , all will fall But we can , and if you can’t buy the top three things you should not do : 1) don’t sell good business you own 2) don’t sell good businesses you own 3)don’t sell good businesses you own

Ramkrishna forgings , Sunflag Iron and steel , Parag Milk , Aarti Pharmalabs and many more , do listen in on my substack audio notes where we have covered these businesses over the last few months , broaden the coverage , there is no better time to be going through my substack notes than now ! link :valueequityin.substack.com/

As the size of your coverage universe and portfolio increases , make it a conscious decision to never lower the quality of incremental investments , your system and edge has to remain market cap agnostic to remain scalable , execute with the same focus on quality , valuations and optionality The quality of portfolio should not suffer because of any thing , as that is what will keep you in this game longer , remember in investing is a losers game , you have to loose less to win more Also remember , weaker market structures help a lot for coverage expansion , increase the breadth @ishmohit1