Aktien, Indizes, Rohstoffe, Devisen - Tägliche Chartanalysen, Fundamental- und Konjunkturanalysen
FFM
Joined January 2012
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Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
These next six months are historically the best of the year, but they are even better in a midterm year.
In fact, 19 for 19 times we've seen November - April higher when starting in a midterm year.
Will this time be different?
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
The market is so negative on AI capex spend that hyperscalers with an average 21% revenue growth are trading at a 20.7x P/E multiple.
Meanwhile, you have companies like Costco and Walmart trading at 40x P/E while growing revenue at a fraction of the rate
If the capex proves to have any reasonable ROI, people are going to deeply regret being this bearish on some of the best companies in the world
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
BREAKING: The S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index outperformed the S&P 500 by +5.7 percentage points in October, its largest monthly outperformance since April 2009.
This also marked its 2nd-largest monthly outperformance since the 1990s.
The Equal-Weight Index surged +4.8% in October, while the S&P 500 fell -0.9%.
Year-to-date, the Equal-Weight Index has gained +13.9%, exceeding the S&P 500's +10.7% return as technology stocks lag the broader market.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ex-AI Index has jumped +14.2% year-to-date, reaching a new all-time high on Friday.
Market leadership is rapidly shifting.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
The MAG7 free cash flow is estimated to explode into 2030 per Bloomberg:
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
Fun fact: In 19 midterm election years since 1950, the S&P 500 posted a negative October just 5 times. November closed was positive in all 5.
$SPX is currently down in Q4, but the quarter has finished positive in 16 of 19 midterm years.
ALT Bluekurtic Market Insights table showing S&P 500 fourth-quarter performance during midterm election years since 1950, alongside presidential and congressional party control. October was negative in just 5 of 19 historical midterm years, with November positive in all 5. Q4 finished positive in 16 of 19 years (84.2%), with a median gain of 7.9%.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
We are leaving the historically worst six months and the next six months are the historically best for the S&P 500.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
AI is burning Big Tech's free cash flow:
The combined CapEx of Amazon, $AMZN, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, and Microsoft, $MSFT, rose +$36.9 billion in Q3 2026, to a record $201.9 billion.
This figure has more than doubled over the last 12 months and is up +356% since Q1 2024.
Big Tech has now spent $1.6 trillion on CapEx over the last 3 years.
Meanwhile, the combined free cash flow of these companies fell -$33.1 billion last quarter, to -$26.4 billion, its lowest on record.
Free cash flow among these firms has dropped -$88.2 billion over the last year.
Only Microsoft reported positive free cash flow in Q3.
Looking ahead, these 4 companies plan to spend another $232 billion on CapEx in Q4, potentially lifting their combined CapEx to a record $740 billion in 2026.
Big Tech is undertaking one of the largest infrastructure buildouts in history.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
THIS HAS MARKED EVERY MAJOR BUYING & SELLING OPPORTUNITY SINCE 1990
Keep this. It’s how you create generational wealth.
Dot-Com Crash.
2008 Financial Crisis.
2020 COVID Crash.
2022 Bear Market.
2025 Tariff Selloff.
The $VIX is Wall Street’s fear gauge.
If you trade $SPY or $QQQ, understand this:
VIX <20 -> TRIM / REDUCE RISK
VIX 20–30 -> HOLD / BE SELECTIVE
VIX 30–40 -> START BUYING
VIX >40 -> BUY THE PANIC
RIGHT NOW: VIX 19.42
We’re sitting just below 20.
Protect profits, don’t chase extended stocks, and watch for volatility to expand.
Once Fear happens it creates opportunity.
That’s when we start buying.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
U.S. midterms carry a notable historical signal: since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 6 months post-election 100% of the time (19/19), averaging a +16.9% median gain.
Max 6-month drop? Just -1.8% median, with zero bear markets (-20%+). Party control didn't matter. @bluekurtic
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
The unwind in Hedge Fund equity exposures this year has been the biggest since at least 2017.
Active de-grossing (reduction in long + short positions) by global hedge funds has now hit over 8% of total gross exposure since June, according to the Morgan Stanley Prime Brokerage Content team.
This has taken gross leverage for US long/short funds down to the 10th percentile versus the last year.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
Since 2000, there have been 911 days that saw more than 400 advancers for the S&P 500.
Yesterday was the first day ever that was negative.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
History was made: 406 S&P 500 members rose on Thursday even as the index fell 0.3%. In Bloomberg’s advance-decline data going back to 1996, the index has closed higher on all 987 previous sessions with at least 400 gainers, with a median gain of 1.3%.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
Why you should own $AMZN in a nutshell:
Only 45.8% of AWS backlog comes from OpenAI and Anthropic.
$MSFT exposure is about the same, but it has higher concentration risk due to OpenAI.
$GOOG has lower overall exposure to OpenAI+Anthropic, but its search business is at risk.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
Since 1987, the Nasdaq 100 has opened at least 2.5% lower while still above its 200-day moving average on 14 occasions.
small sample
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
Hedge funds just made their biggest risk cut on record:
a 7.8% de-grossing from the peak, the largest in Morgan Stanley prime brokerage data going back to 2016.
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
18.5x S&P 500 P/E ratio... lowest since April 2025.. right after 'Liberation Day' @yardeni
Franz-Georg Wenner retweeted
$GOOGL is now cheaper than it was during the financial crisis when it was trading at $7 a share 😲
