Option trades for L/S positions; corp credit/derivatives; DeMark studies; I trade in t-frames of a few wks to a few mths.
Where I don’t want to be
Joined November 2008
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"This feels like the beginning of the pandemic (the early days, when we were told to drink bleach), except we are deliberately walking into the Wuhan lab and injecting ourselves with the virus." @vitaliyk 4/5/2025
Some visual context re: credit spreads. IG and HY on 1yr daily chart and on 25 yrs monthly. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
As I catch up to what’s happening: HY spreads remain at wides of recent range. More weakness there will almost certainly press stks lower. IG is also slowly bleeding wider. Level (82bps) is still benign but w/ credit front and center, direction/speed likely has more impact than where it’s at. Issuance is going to end the month on the weaker end of the avg of the last 13 Octobers. Tmrw FOMC may not be “live” but w/ everyone on pins and needles, it could still = sharp moves. Net net, credit still points to 📉stks b4📈, but nothing to suggest the end of the world is nigh. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
FZucchi 🇮🇹🍝🗽😢 retweeted
can’t even be bothered to find out what the $12.99 is from apple anymore
whatever bro just take it I got a lot going on
FZucchi 🇮🇹🍝🗽😢 retweeted
"Demand for tail risk protection, as measured by SPX downside convexity (10D vs. 25D ratio), remained in the 99th percentile high, though off the extremes from a week ago."
-Mandy Xu, Cboe
FZucchi 🇮🇹🍝🗽😢 retweeted
"So far, the small-caps, mid-caps, transports, semiconductors, as well as many sectors have tested their 200 DMAs. We suspect SPX is next which would bring it towards 7300 at a minimum."
Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG via @neilsethinew
FZucchi 🇮🇹🍝🗽😢 retweeted
The market's correction has hidden in plain sight and revealed in poor breadth.
🇺🇸 S&P 500
The S&P 500 52-week market breadth is improving. For bulls, that's encouraging: rallies tend to look healthier when more stocks take part
👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500
h/t @GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #sp500 #stocks #equity
FZucchi 🇮🇹🍝🗽😢 retweeted
China’s largest tech firms are reportedly signing long-term DRAM supply agreements extending out to 2035. Clearly, they don’t anticipate the memory shortage being resolved anytime soon.
FZucchi 🇮🇹🍝🗽😢 retweeted
This Australian's reply to Trump's rant about “NATO not being there for America” is perfect.
"Mate. You run a country with 600,000 homeless people sleeping on the street tonight. A country where 40% of adults can't cover a $400 emergency without borrowing money. A country where insulin costs more than a car payment and people are rationing it to survive. A country where medical debt is the number 1 cause of bankruptcy. A country where women are dying in hospital car parks because doctors are too scared of abortion laws to treat a miscarriage.
You lock up more of your own citizens than any nation on earth. More than China. More than Russia. More than North Korea. The land of the free has 2 million people in cages, and a quarter of them haven't even been convicted of anything. They're just too poor to make bail.
Your life expectancy is going backwards. You're the only developed nation where that's happening. Your infant mortality rate is worse than Cuba's. Your kids do active shooter drills between maths and English while you sell the gunmaker's stock to your mates.
Your minimum wage hasn't moved in 15 years. You've got teachers working 2 jobs and veterans sleeping under bridges and you just spent a trillion dollars flattening a country that didn't attack you.
And you’ve got a convicted felon, adjudicating raping, paedophile protecting, porn star shagging insurrectionist running the biggest dumpster fire war campaign since the Taliban in Afghanistan thanked you very much for losing again.
And you're calling Greenland poorly run?
Greenland has universal healthcare. Free education. One of the lowest incarceration rates in the world. Nobody goes bankrupt there because they got sick. Nobody dies in a waiting room because their insurance said no.
'NATO wasn't there when we needed them." When exactly was that, champ? September 11? Because NATO invoked Article 5 for the first and only time in history FOR YOU. Soldiers from dozens of countries deployed, fought, bled, and died in Afghanistan FOR YOU. Australia wasn't even in NATO and we still showed up. For 20 years.
And you pulled out at 2am without telling anyone and left them to deal with the mess.
So maybe before you start calling other countries poorly run, have a look at your own backyard, you spray-tanned aluminium siding salesman. The only thing poorly run in this picture is your f----- mouth."
Credit to: Jim Keller
FZucchi 🇮🇹🍝🗽😢 retweeted
Scott, Obama made a joke about Trump’s decorating taste. You responded with an imaginary restaurant bill, his speaking fees, and a ten-year-old election grievance.
That’s quite a lot of emotional damage from one Cheesecake Factory joke.
And the irony of defending Donald Trump, a man who practically worships gold-plated luxury, by accusing someone else of being disconnected from ordinary Americans is spectacular.
Obama’s point was about a president obsessing over lavish renovations while Americans struggle with the cost of living. You managed to write an entire rebuttal without addressing that criticism.
Scott, when somebody makes a joke about the White House looking like a dictator’s wedding venue, and your best defense is that the comedian makes too much money, perhaps the joke landed.
You haven’t rebutted Obama. You’ve demonstrated why the Cheesecake Factory should charge extra for all that salt.
An Egyptian national is being held w/out bail in Italy (his wife also arrested), both charged w/ inciting his followers on his islamist leaning website to throw gas on the fire of the recent violence in Milan. He has close ties to Hezbollah. Lots of MEastern /N.Africans are emigrating to escape terrible conditions. But the islamist terrorists in their midst are not just isolated “bad apples” - they are well organized/funded terrorists playing a very “long game” to overthrow western societies, playing on the naive views of young “useful idiots”.
As I catch up to what’s happening: HY spreads remain at wides of recent range. More weakness there will almost certainly press stks lower. IG is also slowly bleeding wider. Level (82bps) is still benign but w/ credit front and center, direction/speed likely has more impact than where it’s at. Issuance is going to end the month on the weaker end of the avg of the last 13 Octobers. Tmrw FOMC may not be “live” but w/ everyone on pins and needles, it could still = sharp moves. Net net, credit still points to 📉stks b4📈, but nothing to suggest the end of the world is nigh. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
FZucchi 🇮🇹🍝🗽😢 retweeted
Another story impossible to imagine in any other administration: the president's son goes hunting with a Russian criminal who is part of Putin's security entourage
The trip highlights the remarkable relationship between a son of the US president and a tycoon with a criminal record who has close ties to Vladimir Putin’s personal security service. Intelligence experts say such connections are ripe for manipulation. ft.trib.al/p0LBRYI
FZucchi 🇮🇹🍝🗽😢 retweeted
Please take a minute and share as able 🙏
much love @scott_brand10 👊💪
gofundme.com/f/help-scotts-f…
FZucchi 🇮🇹🍝🗽😢 retweeted
Bond market watching @SecScottBessent launch his buyback programme
Since I’m on the other side of the pond, just saw these add’l data released by $CELC at ESMO. I chatted w/ the BBerg AI bot for a while to see how new/relevant these data are and the bot seems duly impressed. Of course I just jinxed the stk for Mon. Thoughts @adamfeuerstein ?
In the ‘60s my grandfather would come home from the office for lunch and would have his pants ironed lest anyone would spot a wrinkle when he got back to the office. I'm on the plane to Italy and I look like 3 different set of pajamas attacked me, and each got a piece of me.
FZucchi 🇮🇹🍝🗽😢 retweeted
The housing market is doing something most people have never experienced.
Sales have collapsed.
Prices remain near record highs.
Buyers can't afford to buy.
Sellers don't want to sell.
And somehow people are still calling this a housing shortage.
This isn't a healthy market.
It's a frozen one.
And if the Wash DC "teflon" market is any indication, we ain't seen nothing yet
Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data.
Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen.
Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However:
- credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years.
- more people are paying rent via credit card.
- average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago
- class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month.
- starting to see these renters move down a tier
Class B:
- simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous.
- fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50%
- considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets.
Class C:
- looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up
- more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades
- tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it
- wage growth has not kept up
Lenders:
- some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff.
- a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses.
- number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall.
- data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over.
I asked “how do you think this ends?”
“Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”