1st worked on Wall St summer '65. Recovering securities lawyer. Trading for a living 45 yrs. Not investment advice, don't be silly. 🇮🇱 linshek lei et hitchat

Joined October 2010
"You are never as smart as u think you are when you are making money or as dumb as u think when losing"
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The next Iran war could send oil to $150 The world survived the first energy shock by burning through inventories while China slashed imports. That cushion is largely gone. El-Erian warns that another disruption to Hormuz and the Red Sea could push oil toward $150, just as borrowing costs remain painfully high. And the scary part? Nobody knows what breaks first. In 2022, Britain's pension system nearly collapsed. Almost nobody saw it coming. This time, an energy crisis could become a financial crisis before anyone realizes where the weak spot is. @elerianm
🇺🇸 AI could usher in an era of unprecedented prosperity But what if the world isn’t prepared for the risks?? Economist Mohamed El-Erian joined to discuss the biggest threats facing the global economy, from the AI boom and mounting debt to the possibility of $150 oil! El-Erian describes AI as a “rational bubble”: investors may lose enormous sums on projects that fail, but the potential payoff is so huge that the frenzy makes sense. Meanwhile, if conflict disrupts both Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, oil could surge to $150 a barrel, delivering another shock to an already fragile global economy. With borrowing costs elevated, governments piling up debt, and AI companies taking on massive financing needs, could these risks compound into something far worse? And which economies are best positioned to weather the oncoming storm? @elerianm
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
"This guy is obsessed with someone else's ass. I feel seen."
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Brazilian stocks are not celebrating Lula's victory: $EWZ MSCI Brazil ETF is trading 31.80 in the pre-mkt, which would be a decline of nearly 25%.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
$SMH 🧐
"When 3 different methods point at the same number, it’s a level worth watching. It’s also where a lot of stop-loss orders tend to congregate, so a clean break would probably be swift." - @simon_ree on $QQQ 🚨🧐🤔 taooftrading.substack.com/p/…
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
KREMLIN SAYS AGREEMENT TO RESUME 3-WAY TALKS WITH UKRAINE AND US DOES NOT PLACE ANY RESTRICTIONS ON MOSCOW OR KYIV WHEN IT COMES TO CONTINUING MILITARY ACTION
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It seems likely that tech positioning reflects concerns about the prospect of decling growth rates in tech.
📌 Equity Tech positioning remains well below what expected earnings growth would suggest. That gap leaves room for a catch-up trade 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ @DeutscheBank $spx #spx #stocks #equity #earnings
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The problem with this "old school" analysis is clear: The use of hedging with index futures, ETFs and options makes the true level of short exposure unclear.
🇺🇸 Stocks Since 2022, traders have steadily built bearish bets on US stocks. If momentum flips, those positions could quickly become fuel for a rally 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ h/t @DeutscheBank $spx #spx $qqq $rut #equity #stocks
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
📌 MCG Tech Positioning in mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech has cooled from its highs, returning to neutral territory at the 33rd percentile 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ @DeutscheBank $spx #spx #tech #sp500 $qqq #stocks #equity
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$GS: "That's my story and I'm sticking to it."
🇺🇸 S&P 500 Goldman Sachs is holding to its S&P 500 targets: 8,000 by year-end and 8,700 over the next 12 months. Earnings growth, not multiple expansion, is expected to power the rally 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 @GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #sp500 #stocks #equity
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Macro factors have generally trumped seasonality this year. xitter.cf/KASDad/status/21140868…
🇺🇸 S&P 500 October's final week has often been kind to US stocks. Late-month lows are nothing new, and deeply bearish sentiment could set the stage for another buying opportunity 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 h/t @RyanDetrick $spx #spx
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
OCTOBER HOLD PRICED IN. WALL STREET EYES DECEMBER HIKE. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to hold rates this week before raising them 25 basis points in December. Kalshi traders price a 93% chance of an October hold, versus just 6% for a hike. The debate has shifted from October to December.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
In terms of hyperscaler performance, have we moved past how much capex are they spending to how much free cash flow are they generating? Despite a robust outlook with Mag-7 earnings expected to climb about 34% this year, above the 29% pace of the S&P 500, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data, and 27% in 2027, a consensus that has moved up aggressively in recent weeks (two months ago, analysts were anticipating an increase of less than 19%), the Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Index is up just 6.5% this year, well below the 11% rise in the S&P 500 Index and the 15% rise in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index. “If we get another scenario where we have to lower FCF expectations, that will elevate concerns about the durability of AI spending and the reliance on incremental capital, and that will flow down to the neoclouds and other parts of the market as well,” said Kevin Shea, senior equity analyst at BNY Wealth. “However, if we can get positive revisions to FCF, the market will breathe a sigh of relief that we’ve reached the bottom for negative revisions and that we’re through the most difficult part of the spending cycle.”
🇺🇸 AI Spending Fears Threaten to Swamp Big Tech’s Strong Earnings - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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$SMH Mr. Chips went south for the winter in early October. And then the Mag 7 $MAGS followed shortly thereafter. Look no further.
"The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) has been making higher lows since late September, while the S&P 500 Top 20 ETF (TOPT) has been rolling over. And SPY? Well, it's stuck in the middle, chopping sideways and frustrating just about everyone." @HostileCharts
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That's a shame
A chip fabrication facility at Russia's Proton military electronics plant in Orel was heavily damaged over the weekend. Footage shows several Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles hitting the factory.
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Carney gets to quietly tweak Trump who supported Bolsonaro.
Congratulations, President @LulaOficial, on your re-election in Brazil. The relationship between Canada and Brazil has flourished under our partnership. Let’s seize this opportunity to make it even stronger, together — to create major new trade opportunities, protect the environment, and build greater prosperity for both our peoples.
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Just a reflection that ETF sponsors/issuers throw 💩against the wall and see what sticks. That is especially the case when it comes to leveraged ETFs in 'hot' sectors.
"Two leveraged exchange-traded funds tied to SK Hynix Inc. will be liquidated just months after their debut in the US, as investor appetite for the artificial intelligence trade moderates." - Bloomberg
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A lower forward P/E suggests "cheaper." Is that simply the mkt's discounting mechanism reflecting higher real rates and/or the prospect of declining growth over the horizon?
"Stocks have gotten significantly cheaper this year." @yardeni
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We so almost no speculation about a pre-midterm election surprise between the U.S. and Iran. End tweet.
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In the face of continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, crude pulls back.
Houthis say they attacked Saudi oil pumping stations, Riyadh airport as fighting intensifies Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Monday they had ‌attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pumping stations and Riyadh airport, as rising hostilities choke oil supplies and threaten to erupt into a larger conflict. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said earlier it had destroyed two ballistic missile launchers in the capital Sanaa, including one used to fire a ​missile towards Riyadh that the coalition said it had intercepted. There was no immediate Saudi confirmation of the Houthi attacks. (Reuters)
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
gm. 38% of S&P 500 weight reports this week. via Scott Rubner, Citadel
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