I want to assume that most people think that trump is either going to reach a deal in the next few hours or he's going to bomb some infrastructure to keep his promises but end of day the market seems tired of selling off

Saylor arbing his book so he has to keep buying but Lee on the other hand is just maniac.... but goddam I respect it

We’ll be publishing an official Looking Ahead update on all things TED soon. Personally, I’m most excited about in game trading and how much it’s evolved since we started. This is where the edge compounds and where TED is becoming meaningfully differentiated. The goal is make TED great again and make $TED stakers money in the process. Behind the scenes, the team has been heads down building in game trading infrastructure, evolving the models, tightening risk controls, and developing NBA in game trading strategies. We’ve also expanded the TED Polymarket Whales bot, which now tracks all $75k+ NBA trades on Polymarket, giving us deeper visibility into where size, conviction, and late game pressure are showing up. @TheAgentTed @polywhaleswatch As Always in TED we TRUST!

Tech improving

Most prediction market frontends are just: “a list of questions.” That’s not a consumer product. That’s a database. The next PM winners look more like Spotify/TikTok: a personalized feed that routes you to markets where you actually have an edge. Truth needs distribution

This is described incorrectly

Seems like narrative fluff. Even if the bot parses game state quickly... polymarket prices dont update per kill so he would need someone to trade against in sufficient size

So he picks up the pennies in front of a stream roller. What could possibly go wrong?

These kinds of trades are picking pennies up in front of a steam roller. He's buying @ 99c right before the market resolves. Wouldnt say thats really much of a strategy. One trade can wipe out his entire account

Looked through the actual fills. This isn't arbitrage, its market making on thin books, especially late in matches looking to capture wide spreads when liquidity thins out. This carries a ton of inventory risk and does not rely on Yes + No < $1 or speed. The edge is the spread.

This is only on the taker side for crypto price markets

Math is not mathing here

relatable

Prediction markets aren’t better forecasts. They’re better early warning systems for when consensus is about to fail.

Front doors win by lowering thinking cost, not click count

In short PMs aren’t better forecasters they’re better at detecting when the old forecasting framework is breaking

Just read through the new 1st Kalshi Report and honestly it seems like everyone’s focused on “prediction markets beat CPI consensus.” That’s not the insight. The insight is that PMs don’t win by being faster. They win by aggregating weird, fragmented, non-modelable information that surveys can’t touch. That only matters when structure breaks. research.kalshi.com/articles…

One thing that changed how I see sports betting: When sportsbooks adjust odds, they frequently settle on the same numbers across operators. That doesn’t happen in markets driven by deep, independent models. It happens when pricing is built to manage risk, not understand the game.