Here to share my own research & analysis, and to promote @FNArena. Expect to be challenged in your convictions, assuming you're sufficiently open-minded ;)

Sydney, Australia
Joined April 2011
Petra Capital on Artrya $AYA: "Artrya (AYA) has just filed its 4C and quarterly activities report for 1QFY27. The key highlight was the signing of Huntsville after quarter end, AYA’s largest customer to date and the first SAPPHIRE partner to convert to a commercial contract, an important validation of the company’s commercial strategy. "Revenues in the quarter are still modest, but encouragingly with the roll out of the reimbursement pre-authorisation workflow at Tanner in mid- Sep’26, volumes of scans have picked up materially in October. "The FDA submission for Salix Coronary Flow (SCF) has been deferred to strengthen the supporting clinical evidence by adding a reader study, however management believes this should improve the quality of the eventual filing and improve the probability of a successful FDA outcome. "The company has a strong balance sheet to support its commercial execution. We continue to see a long and attractive growth runway for AYA. "We believe near-term share price performance for AYA will be driven by additional commercial contract wins, SCP volume growth and progress toward the SCF FDA submission. "AYA remains a high conviction BUY. We currently have a $6.00/sh TP on AYA." #stockinfocus #ASX #Investing
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RBC Capital on BlueScope Steel $BSL: "Bluescope (BSL) upgraded its 1H27 EBIT guidance by ~20% citing (i) "favourable" US market conditions and (ii) "stronger than expected" Australian performance. "Earlier this month we upgraded our BSL 1H27 EBIT estimate to reflect the stronger US markets (refer 'The rising tide...just keeps on rising'), however were pleasantly surprised by the resilience of AU demand and realised margins. "We expect the strong underlying market momentum to continue through year-end, and for BSL to generate >$1bn of FCF (pre-div) this year. "We reiterate our Outperform rating ahead of the AGM (16-Nov) and 1H27 result (Feb-27)." #ASX #stockinfocus #investing
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
True..
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
"The global AI infrastructure boom is colliding with real-world constraints, forcing #NextDC to issue a shock profit warning last week." @FNArena A bit of door stop of an article, but before the pile on, I worked on this on the weekend to get it out asap! NextDC's Collision With The Real World fnarena.com/2026/10/26/nextd…
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CLSA on $ZIP Co: "Operationally, Zip’s 1Q27 was positive. US TTV growth remains ahead of CLSA forecasts, bad debts (% of TTV) are within seasonal norms, and all guidance items were reiterated. "Overshadowing this however was a US fraud event. While the A$10.1m impact represents 3% of FY27 cash Ebitda guidance, the price response suggests a loss of confidence that will likely take multiple quarters of solid delivery to restore. "Still, we do not see anything terminal or structural and highlight the significant value at less than 10x PE. "Our PT drops from A$4.49 to A$3.66 but we stay at O-PF." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing
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CLSA on Whitehaven Coal $WHC: "Whitehaven (WHC) delivered very strong production performance in 1Q27, with management flagging the benefit of supportive weather conditions, however, the standout performance was from Narrabri UG, up 60% versus VA consensus. "We expect this performance to normalise through FY27, with the longwall move planned for 3Q27. Coal prices will likely be a positive tailwind till end-3Q27, however ramping LNG supply in 2027 and 2028 is expected to drive downside risk to coal price expectations from 2H27. "We prefer Santos (STO) and Woodside Energy (WDS) for leverage to the current energy market tightness and maintain a relative Underperform rating on WHC with an unchanged A$6.30 target price." $STO $WDS #ASX #investing #stocksinfocus
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CLSA on Newmont Corp $NEM: "We continue to expect a recovery in gold prices in 2027, a positive tailwind for the sector. "Newmont (NEM) has US$2.8bn in remaining in buyback funding, which positions the stock with defensive leverage to a gold price recovery. "In NEM’s 3Q26 results, production was in line with a 3% beat of adj. Ebitda as by-products outperformed VA consensus. Investor positioning ahead of Barrick’s potential North American portfolio IPO is a risk to the view; the deal appears set for 1Q27. "We reduce our target price from A$216 to A$213 and maintain our O-PF rating. EVN is our preferred ASX gold pick, followed by NEM then NST." $EVN solana:G7iK3prSzAA4vzcJWvsLUEsdCqzR7PnMzJV61vSdFSNW #ASX #stocksinfocus #gold #Investing
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
Bitcoin (-7.3%) and Gold (-7.5%) are the two worst performing major assets so far in 2026. This is something we haven't seen before in any calendar year.
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
Too many people on X are still posting about buying when there is blood on the streets for it to actually be time to buy.
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
The world’s most accomplished tech founders and business leaders are betting hundreds of billions on AI with extraordinary conviction. Meanwhile much of the investing world thinks they’re making a massive mistake. The irony is hard to ignore. An investment industry where very few have historically managed to beat a passive index is now questioning the judgment of the people building the technology and running the businesses that will put it to work. Maybe the investors are right. Maybe the builders are. But I can’t remember a time when the stakes were this high and the two sides saw the future so differently.
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
so we are in a huge ai bubble that everyone knows about, that everyone keeps warning everyone else about, which makes investors increasingly scared that we're in a bubble, which means everyone is being cautious about investing in the bubble, because everyone knows it's a bubble, which somehow makes it the biggest bubble in history, despite everyone being fully aware that it's a bubble and constantly reminding everyone else that we're in a bubble.
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From today's Broker Call Report @FNArena : "Citi's quick response to today's announcement starts with the view that Beach Energy's -$115m farm-in to Elixir’s Energy's ((EXR)) Taroom acreage is providing a compelling medium-to-longer-term growth opportunity. "Commentary suggests the deal is done at a reasonable entry price with implied acreage valuations broadly in line with comparable equity valuations in the area. "However, Citi also continues to see multiple headwinds and expects these to weigh down on the share price nearer-term. "In addition, Citi remains reluctant to ascribe material value ahead of further appraisal success and greater clarity around commercialisation. "The latter is particularly important, commentary suggests, given remaining uncertainty surrounding the Domestic Gas Reservation Scheme. "Target of 80c remains unchanged. Sell." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
"Ampol's September quarter result fell short of market expectations, but has the subsequent share price pullback opened up an opportunity for investors?" @FNArena Ampol: More Than A Refining Disappointment fnarena.com/2026/10/22/ampol…
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CLSA on Amcor $AMC: "AMC’s Berry merger and ongoing portfolio rationalisation remain central to its updated shareholder value creation framework that targets returns of 13-18% pa post the merger (previously 10-15%). "Selling remaining non-core businesses will in part help deleverage and reintroduce a buyback in order to meet new the return targets. "However, a return to stabilised volume growth is paramount, in our view, supporting almost all potential catalysts. "We transfer coverage of Amcor from Daniel Kang to Justin Barratt. In doing so we make EPS changes of c.0-3% over FY27-29CL. Our PT moves to A$66.10 (was A$68.60.) Maintain Hold." #stockinfocus #XJO #investing
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Moelis on AIC Mines $A1M: "Copper and gold production at the Eloise mine came in lower than our estimates, attributable to processing lower grade ore stemming from delayed access to higher grade material in the Eloise Deeps and Lens 6 deposits. "Mill tonnes were consistent QoQ despite the plant commencing an early shut for cutover work to connect new equipment. "Site cost escalation has seemed to manifest in this quarterly print when comparing the prior corresponding period, with mining, processing, site admin and transport up 17%/8%/41% (unit costs), respectively. US$10m was drawn on the US$50m Prepayment Facility (now US$40m drawn), and cash ended at A$37.2m." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing #gold #copper
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Moelis on Vault Minerals $VAU: "Ordinarily we would anticipate a soft market reaction to today's Q result given the weaker outcomes compared against our estimates for production, costs and cash position. "However, the pending acquisition by GMD means that VAU share price is more likely to be influenced by GMD's price movements given the fixed ratio of the bid (in GMD stock)." #stockinfocus #ASX #gold #investing
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
😆😆😆😆
Did some rigorous analysis of the AFR's coverage this month.
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Citi on Nick Scali $NCK: "Neutral-rated Nick Scali’s trading update this evening revealed materially weaker than consensus expectations (we previously flagged downside risk) and represents a sharp deterioration versus the trading update for the first 5 weeks of 1H27. "The main surprise is that ANZ written orders have gone from flat in the first 5 weeks of FY27 (reported in August) to - 15% in 1Q27, resulting in 1H27 group NPAT guidance of $28 million - $32 million which is -20% below VA Consensus at the midpoint. "The positive UK momentum continues, but is not large enough to offset ANZ weakness. "With Citi forecasting another RBA rate hike in November with risk to the upside, we think it is premature for investors to assume this is the end of the downgrade cycle. "We consider Nick Scali’s update to be a better reflection of underlying housing retail conditions compared to Beacon Lighting’s update yesterday." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
$NCK with a 7.10pm trading update ☠️ Profit down 30% 👀 (Not held)
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