Prediction markets, trader behavior & AI agents. Building HowSure. Market breakdowns, experiments and things that changed my mind.
future
Joined July 2014
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bez | Howsure retweeted
Some career news: I’ve joined @TrustWallet to lead marketing and growth.
Trust Wallet was my first wallet, where my crypto journey began. Now I’m working closely with @felix_fan and the team to bring the freedom of onchain finance to the next hundred million users.
We have one of the largest user bases in Web3, a product that keeps getting better, and a team that’s passionate about the future of self-custody.
The goal now is clear: make Trust Wallet the default for everyone.
I’ll be leading growth, brand, and community, and building a stronger bridge between our users and the team.
Excited for what’s ahead. Let’s build. 💙
bez | Howsure retweeted
🇧🇷 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election Projection:
🔗 globalelectionsimulator.com
🔵 Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) - 63,348,111 (53.1%)
🔴 Lula da Silva (PT) - 55,951,533 (46.9%)
📊 Margin of Error: ±1.0%
📅 October 22, 2026
bez | Howsure retweeted
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: What will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
poly.market/J1rD7YO
bez | Howsure retweeted
Calling all crypto twitter.
I'm proud to announce that Jacob Horne @js_horne has joined Polymarket. He will be working closely with me on product, in particular making Polymarket DeFi great again.
Jacob is amongst the best product and innovation minds in crypto. Before this, he was CEO of Zora. He built multiple beautiful products (I was one of the first users of the first version in 2020). Now he's got the PMF and distribution of Polymarket. I'm so excited to work with him.
We'll be hosting a Polymarket DeFi town hall soon to hear from our longtime users and lay out the plan to make the Polymarket DeFi product the best it’s ever been. In the meantime, DM your feedback to @js_horne or me and we'll action it.
To the DeFi community, we know the performance of the onchain product has waned as we've scaled, and it hurts us to hear the frustration of the people who love Polymarket and have supported us for so long thinking we’ve pivoted all focus to US, but just know we're working behind the scenes to unify the products and make Polymarket better than ever, across all surface areas.
bez | Howsure retweeted
¹We are about to see a tons of economic mechanisms which were great in theory, but suffered from low adoption, be massively adopted by agents.
Human limited rationality (and time limitations) made those only worth it for important things, this changes with AIs.
Agentic Justice has been achieved internally.
Cases solved in minutes instead of weeks or months.
Very fast, very cheap. Live now on @arbitrum.
bez | Howsure retweeted
We are starting to release GPT-6 Astra and we are doing it as carefully and quickly as possible. It was very important to us that we bring it to all Plus users and not only Pro, Business and Enterprise.
It will take a few days for the rollout to complete and behind the scenes many novel systems will operate at scale for the first time and we are bringing a lot of compute up.
It is pure magic.
openai.com/index/gpt-6-astra…
bez | Howsure retweeted
HIP-4 permissionless deployments ship on the next network upgrade.
Templates come online over time through validator vote. So the market set opens gradually, one approved structure at a time, instead of all at once.
Testnet went live four weeks ago. Four spec updates since. Now it's going to mainnet.
Hyperliquid.
bez | Howsure retweeted
DraftKings is more bullish than ever on Predictions, yet sees only ~1% customer overlap with sportsbooks.
As moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets becomes easier, a much larger consumer market opens up.
Winner will build the bridge from sportsbook behavior to predictions: familiar discovery, simpler UX and less friction to trade.
bez | Howsure retweeted
No, cryptocurrencies are money, in the first place, and not OS-like "L1"s . So you'd better tell me how new money are distributed, what was at genesis, who are insiders and what are their allocations about , etc . Those questions are good: ergoforum.org/t/ergo-as-a-cu…
bez | Howsure retweeted
Rosen Bridge Updates
Rosen Expansion
-Firo:
They've updated ElectrumX-firo and created new PRs to integrate it into Rosen (to replace RPC endpoint).
(Under Review) Support OP_PUSHDATA1 in Firo Rosen Extractor
(Under Review) Replace RPC with ElectrumX server in AssetCheck parameter in health-check repository
(Under Review) Add ElectrumX server endpoint to Firo scanners
(Under Review) Replace RPC with ElectrumX server in guard-service repository
(Under Review) Full Firo integration into ui repository
Handshake:
No progress. As I reported previously, we are focused on Firo for now, to make sure procedure is smooth. Then we finish Handshake integration (as only two PRs remained, where both are reviewed once).
- (Under Review) Handshake integration into guard-service
- (Halted Review) Handshake integration into ui repository (will continue it's review once Firo integration is completed)
Base:
It's been a while since we were researching about integrating Base into Rosen. Some parts were implemented by our team and some PR were requested by MGpai.
We decided to puruse watcher and ui integration on MGpai PRs and guard-service integration by ourselves (since it's 1st L2 integration and some additional changes are required).
(Under Review) Add Base RPC observation extractor
(Under Review) Add Base chain (Active Branch)
bez | Howsure retweeted
Live: mcp.ergoblockchain.org
We’re building the Ergo Agent Economy: MCP tools for agents to discover services, quote jobs, check wallet policy, and verify receipt-backed work on Ergo testnet.
Non-custodial, non-signing by design. Proof first, markets next.
bez | Howsure retweeted
AI agents don’t just need wallets.
They need economic memory.
What was requested?
Who accepted the task?
What rules applied?
Was the work verified?
Where did settlement happen?
That’s the real agent economy.
And this is where Ergo becomes interesting.
bez | Howsure retweeted
Ergo should become the place where agents discover work, price work, finance work, prove work, settle work, and build reputation from receipts. $ERG
bez | Howsure retweeted
Crypto talks about AI agents as “payments.”
But autonomous work needs more than payment.
It needs intent, terms, credit, predicates, receipts, settlement, and an audit trail.
That is the category we are building around Ergo:
Where agents settle work.
bez | Howsure retweeted
If you are building wallets, agents, MCP tools, ErgoScript contracts, receipt systems, or AI payment flows, this is the place to start:
📷agents.ergoblockchain.org
Live testnet proof.
Signed evidence.
Public receipts.
Audit-gated mainnet path. $ERG
bez | Howsure retweeted
Ergoblockchain.org is no longer just a website about Ergo.
It is becoming a live proof surface for the agent economy: machine-readable status, paid AI testnet flows, public receipts, MCP access, developer tooling, and explicit trust gates.
Start here:
📷agents.ergoblockchain.org
