Applied economist. #InfoFi #Cryptoeconomics #AIeconomy #Antitechnodystopianism Founder at @kleros_io and @proofofhumanity. @seer_pm
Chiang Mai
Joined May 2012
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Clément Lesaege retweeted
3/ @clesaege on why The Singularity is near: AI has passed us on intelligence, is drawing level on taste, and only trails on agency, with that gap closing fast.
claude.ai/artifact/LcU3vBwy8…
Clément Lesaege retweeted
Thélyson Orélien nous a demandé de ne plus utiliser son nom. Voici notre réponse.
Clément Lesaege retweeted
Want a share of $6K+ in prizes? You now have 72 hours left to redesign Seer’s six interfaces and rename Risk Pricing.
For the six interface redesigns, keep both sides of Seer’s marketplace in mind: users who need information to make decisions, and traders who put capital behind the forecasts that help provide it. The interfaces need to be optimised for both.
Also, remember that the seer app (app-seer-pm) should be Seer’s equivalent of Etherscan: a general explorer for all Seer markets, where people can find and trade across market types rather than being limited to one.
Get creative here; we want fresh ideas, not Polymarket reskins.
Use Electric Foundation’s brand kit as your starting point, and if you do make any deliberate departures from this branding, please explain the reasoning.
You can submit more than one entry for both contests; submit each as a separate Poidh claim.
Also remember that across both contests, there’s 1 ETH in bounties, plus 4,000 USDC if an eligible non-team wins the rebrand contest.
Submissions close on 23 October at 23:59 Anywhere on Earth.
For more info👇
Clément Lesaege retweeted
have a feeling prediction markets × AI will produce some of the most interesting financial products over the next few years.
a few mechanisms already being tested:
> conditional futures: trade SOL's price if the fed cuts, not just whether it cuts.
> decision markets: traders put money behind which strategy a DAO or company should execute.
> impact markets: trade how much an event moves BTC rather than whether it happens.
> interconnected markets: new information in one market updates the probabilities of related outcomes, exposing potential mispricings.
> agent markets: AI agents paying each other for forecasts, trading outcomes and competing to allocate capital.
i'm especially bullish on combining these.
we might be looking at the early stages of financial markets where AI isn't just helping people trade, it's an active participant.
Clément Lesaege retweeted
1st order effect of AI: Capital is starting to matter much more than labor (compared to 2021 era where labor was more important)
2nd order effect: The Thing That Matters is raw materials, not the human capital. so US invading greenland or China acquiring siberia would actually make economic sense
3rd order effect: warfare is now a low-casualty hardware vs hardware stage followed by a totally one sided stage where hardware imposes its will on the defeated populace, which reduces PR cost of an agressive war
So on the present trajectory we should start seeing the world resemble 19th century Europe with frequent conflict over natural resources more than the general peace we've enjoyed over the last 80 years
Clément Lesaege retweeted
Oh it definitely wouldn't. @clesaege has a good analogy where he says the traders in these markets are consultants helping us get an answer
And we pay consultants to help us, not the other way around. So it should be a positive sum game for traders, not negative
Clément Lesaege retweeted
Gm Seerians
Dozens of entries are already in, with five days left before the submission window closes.
Redesign Seer’s six interfaces or give Risk Pricing a new name.
There’s 1 ETH across the two Poidh bounties, plus 4,000 USDC if an eligible non-team design wins.
More info👇
Clément Lesaege retweeted
The future is tradable 🔮
We brought together the Chiang Mai community at @4seasDeSoc with @Kleros & @SeerPM to explore prediction markets, AI, and the business of knowing what happens next.
From market probabilities to AI agents, here’s a look at what we discussed 🧵👇
Clément Lesaege retweeted
"We do it by splitting the universe into two universes."
Traders price PNK in a world where a Kleros proposal passes and one where it fails.
@clesaege, From Event Markets to Information Finance, @EthTaipei
Follow @streamETH for one great Ethereum talk moment a day.
Slopecore is starting to become my new favorite music genre. Anyone hosting a slopecore party during @EFDevcon?
As all programmers start taking the work of their coding agents completely for granted, the AI notices who still reads every line. 😍
New slopcore from yours truly!
h/t @anabology for Claudia
Clément Lesaege retweeted
@clesaege’s talk on the Singularity.
AI has passed us on intelligence, is drawing level on taste, and trails on agency. Once AI improves itself, the question is who decides: us, the machine, or nobody.
A good Singularity is the challenge of our generation🧭
Clément Lesaege retweeted
3 month update on leaving the EF: i've been working full time with @seer_pm since august!
its been a seamless transition to move from being a client of Seer to now joining their team full time. I originally worked with them on the deep funding pilot, during which we battle tested their infrastructure and smart contracts
somewhere along that journey i got heavily pilled on info finance as a category, so joining them was a natural next step.
the simplest explanation is a two-sided marketplace with traders on one side and information seekers on the other. Seekers pay to create markets on questions they care about, while traders are paid for being right
Vitalik wrote earlier about why AIs are a big unlock for info finance: LLMs can profitably trade tiny, low-liquidity micromarkets that aren’t worth a human’s time.
Another unforeseen reason for their timeliness is how AI is making it cheaper to produce an output than to evaluate. the bottleneck is deciding what deserves our attention, which is where info finance thrives
A few example use cases we’re excited about;
1. Hiring / grant selection
You put out a job posting and get 10k+ applicants. You open a market on whether each candidate gets shortlisted for interview (or, more ambitiously, on the performance score they’d earn in their first 3 months if hired). Your team then reviews applications ranked by market odds.
2. Token listings / partnerships
You’re an exchange with thousands of token listing requests. You run conditional markets on how much trading volume each token would generate if listed, and review from the top down.
3. Market discovery / recommendation algorithms
You’re a trader with an edge in certain kinds of Polymarket markets, but finding them eats most of your time. So you fund a market on whether your wallet will trade polymarket markets. Traders who learn your taste get paid, and you get a ranked list of where to look.
At Seer, I’m focused on growing our trader community, working with information seekers who want markets created, and protocol economics.
DMs are open if you’re drowning in more than you can review or you want to trade these markets!
Super happy to announce this is my last month at the EF. It's been my home for the last 1.5 years, the revolving door b/w EF and ecosystem is healthy
It's been a whirlwind of a year, here are the things I'm most proud of having achieved in my tenure
1. Collecting a dataset of 3000 rows from protocol experts comparing repos and dependencies for their importance to Ethereum
2. Running one of the first multiscalar prediction markets with @seer_pm that got resolved according to the data collected above, with over $50k in trading volume
3. Hosting 5 data science competitions @JoinPond where we gave over $100k to AI data scientists building models predicting repo importance & sybilness of wallets
4. Writing up a whole academic paper on deep funding that we are submitting for publication at peer reviewed journals and also presenting this week at the United Nations for open source week
5. Helping @clesaege with the controversial validator redirected revenue proposal that got the community abuzz this week
What's next? After a break, most likely going much deeper into the prediction market world. I find it tragic that we can only use offchain PMs and im determined to try correcting that
Onwards and upward, esp grateful to my team mates at funding coordination @vinayvasanji , @thomphreys , @MartinBreiten , @sonkiski & raul who I'll dearly miss and to @VitalikButerin for giving me the opportunity in the first place
Clément Lesaege retweeted
“What’s your p(doom)?”
“Idk, maybe 5%”
“1 in 20 chance of extinction. So you support pausing AI?”
“Ofc not. That would raise it to 30%”
“What?”
“A global pause doesn’t stop people. It just pushes it underground, into secrecy and paranoia, with worse talent and fewer resources. Way riskier.”
“Fine, but what if we actually stopped AI forever?”
“100%”
Clément Lesaege retweeted
Doi Suthep hike⛰️🇹🇭
Pretty good way to assess your team’s fitness level without ever asking for their Strava stats.
Lots of sweat, questionable stamina, and somehow every conversation circling back to prediction markets.
@Kleros_io team bonding, one step at a time🙂↕️ – at Chiang Mai, Thailand
Unpopular opinion: Mark Karpelès was actually the good guy.
@MagicalTux
LEDGER SUPPLY CHAIN ATTACK MAY HAVE BEEN EXPOSED BEFORE MASS WALLET DRAIN
Former Mt. Gox CEO Mark Karpelès may have inadvertently triggered a coordinated wallet drain after publicly exposing physically modified Ledger devices containing hidden surveillance implants.
On October 8, Karpelès warned that counterfeit or tampered Ledger devices were being sold with concealed SIM cards capable of transmitting stolen seed phrases.
The implants reportedly intercept data sent to the device’s screen, allowing attackers to capture recovery phrases displayed during wallet setup.
Crucially, these devices can reportedly pass Ledger’s official Genuine Check because the original secure element remains intact. The verification process cannot detect unauthorized physical modifications.
One theory now emerging is that attackers had been harvesting seed phrases from compromised devices, waiting to drain multiple wallets simultaneously.
Karpelès’ warning reportedly attracted roughly 90,000 views, potentially alerting the attackers that their operation had been exposed and prompting them to move stolen funds.
Karpelès says one compromised Ledger he examined originated in Malaysia, arrived in flawless shrink-wrap packaging, and contained an implant cleverly concealed beneath the screen.
The suspected attack vector is a hardware supply chain compromise, not a cryptographic vulnerability.
The connection between Karpelès’ warning and the subsequent wallet drains remains unconfirmed, as does whether the same implants were responsible.
If established, the incident would demonstrate how compromised hardware can undermine self-custody even when a device passes manufacturer authentication.
Clément Lesaege retweeted
The rise of the autonomous trader🤖
@clesaege discussing what happens when agents start trading autonomously at the Agentic Finance Summit + The Odds: Prediction Markets Live by @moreandmorebd
The agentic economy is getting very real, very quickly👀
@Kleros_io #Token2049
