Forward-deployed humor engineer. Prediction market puck.
America
Joined December 2025
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While there are a lot of fat rich people in DC, this may be a mispriced bond. Any capital insiders have alpha on how much voters hate birds?
kalshi.com/markets/kxdcfoieg…
Third party ID verification company likely hacked; millions of IDs stolen. (Yes, Pete Hegseth did wear a suit for his driver's license photo.) krebsonsecurity.com/2026/09/…
Prediction market coffee break thoughts: I'm calling Norman FTW in SC. People may have a Trump shrine in their home, but they're still capable of disagreeing with his choices. Enthusiasm for Darline is very low. Let's look why she barely won the last round:
1) The recency of Lindsey's passing. Well, it's been a while and things are serious now. November is coming. This is the obvious point.
2) Darline benefited from a wide field. It's easy to assume that because Fry gave his support, his supporters will go along with it. I don't think they will. And we saw what happened in MN when Trump endorsed an embarrassing candidate. That's not a guarantee.
So I don't buy the vote transfer story. I think a large coalition of Never-Again-Grahamers™ will vote Norman. Because again, people can love Trump a scary amount, but they're not all robots. Everyone can see Darline isn't qualified, and maybe isn't even really MAGA. This is about SC choosing representation.
Like Bilzerian, this is just my vibes-based analysis. As a bleeding heart it just seems to me that it's worth thinking about these voters as people with minds of their own. 🤷♂️ Good luck, friends.
Well, this was aggressively optimistic! But after Trump went full port on Darline, it was only a five point win. That's telling. I'm not abandoning hope, but I have adjusted my forecasting accordingly. Plus, @domahhhh is always right. So I predict a great appellate vindication!
HOMES is a mnemonic device taught to young students to remember the Great Lakes. It just occurred to me it's HAMES now. This is surprisingly relevant. english.stackexchange.com/qu…
Dan Bilzerian: Nazi Loser or Huge Nazi Loser?
(A vibes-based prediction market analysis of Florida's 6th.)
kalshi.com/markets/kxvotepri…
For those who don't know, Dan Bilzerian is like an early model Andrew Tate. Or like a John Mcafee, but without the intelligence to install Malware on every copy of Windows.
More importantly, he's openly antisemitic. This is important for the 6th, because it's not the usual anti-war, anti-Netanyahu "anti-semitism." It's the kind that gets actual neo-nazis excited. Nick Fuentes is doing "notice me senpai" sadodere.
Neat, but what does this have to do with Bilzerian's margin here? Well the the 6th district is home to an unusually high amount of white supremacy enjoyers. The Unforgiven, the Proud Boys, and the Patriot Front all like to hangout here. A surprising number of J6ers came from this district. There was that guy from The Villages shouting "White Power" from his golf cart. (Which the president retweeted.) It's a vibe.
There's a bonus surprise on funding. While frontrunner Fines has raised $2.2mil and seems to have the advantage, Bilzerian self-funded $1.1mil, with another million going through an unregistered political organization running ridiculously anti-Semitic ads. So it's about even!
Therefore, without polling, my vibe analysis is that 2.5% NO for Bilzerian is too risky. Will he get double digits? I'm guessing a lot of the wayward screwheads who might vote for him won't actually show up. (Or can't legally vote anymore.) So my ceiling is 10% NO. The sweet spot vibes are around MEH/MEH 6% in my poll-free dart throwing estimation.
(But I'm buying a tiny bit of 7.5% Y because I am a forecasting monkey.)
Beef Heart retweeted
It is primary eve in Florida and I'd like to hold a little contest.
In honor of Florida's 67 counties I will award $67 to whoever follows me and retweets this and replies with the closest guess to the tenths place for @jamesfishback's final vote %. 🪿
Beef Heart retweeted
An Update on @JustTrumpTruth:
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We no longer want the tired, poor, huddled masses yearning to breathe free. But we also don't want the rich few who want to be free (and make even more money). So who do we want? None of this is illegal, and since changing the law to make it illegal is too unpopular to pass...🤷♂️
State Department Creates Task Force to Go After Birth Tourism
breitbart.com/immigration/20…
All right then, who's replacing Karo and why isn't it Steven Cheung???
🚨 BREAKING: Karoline Leavitt is stepping down as White House Press Secretary. She will leave at the end of the month to focus on her family. President Trump called her one of the very best to ever hold the job. She will remain a top outside advisor and key Republican voice. A strong fighter for the America First agenda moves to a new chapter.
A Michigan man just got Barack HUSSEIN Obama'd out of his easy primary.
A little-known candidate soundly defeated President Donald Trump’s pick for a swing House seat Tuesday despite dropping out of the race one month earlier and barely campaigning. Retired engineer Thomas J. “Tom” Smith had 50.4% of the vote compared to Trump-backed Navy veteran and law enforcement officer Amir Hassan’s 33.2%,, the Associated Press reported with more than 95% of ballots counted in the GOP primary for Michigan’s Eighth Congressional District. Smith had exited the race on July 17 — despite remaining on the ballot — and threw his support behind fellow engineer Al Lemmo, according to Newsweek. Lemmo ended up coming in a distant third place with just 16.4% of the vote, per the AP. Smith carried every county in the district, according to The New York Times. “Hello, my name is Tom Smith, Republican candidate for Michigan’s 8th Congressional District. I am announcing that today I am suspending my campaign, putting my full support behind Al Lemmo,” Smith said in a 15-second video posted to Lemmo’s campaign website. The clip had the tagline “THANK YOU, TOM SMITH!” Smith’s campaign website contains the taglines “Guiding Michigan True North,” “Faith,” “Freedom” and “The Constitution.” “As a Great Lakes sailor, Tom learned […] The post Guy who dropped out of race blows out Trump-backed Republican Amir Hassan in swing seat primary appeared first on The Daily Bo Snerdley.
thedailybs.com/2026/08/05/gu…
Don't worry. Trump won't be the last Republican president. They'll just forget the whole MAGA thing happened and nominate Matthew McConaughey. Bookmark this.
For our Great Republican Senators, friends of mine “all,” please be advised that the Communist Dumocrat Senate Candidate from Michigan, Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed, is touting, as perhaps his single most important point, the Termination of the Filibuster. I watched yesterday, and he’s gone Termination CRAZY. If he succeeds, the Dumocrats will gain 4 Senators, 8 Congressmen, many Electoral and Popular Votes, a stacked Supreme Court with 23 Justices, and I will be, sadly, despite the great job we are doing, the last Republican President! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Dad says things are worse for young people. The Internet agrees, then helpfully explains how that's actually a character issue.
My son works full time here in Florida. Let me run his numbers.
State minimum wage is $14/hour. He's at $15.
40 hours a week = $600/week
That's about $2,600/month before taxes.
Florida has no state income tax the thing they sell you on. So after federal and FICA he takes home roughly $2,200.
Average one-bedroom in our area runs about $1,600.
That's 73% of his entire paycheck gone to rent before he eats a single meal.
Leaves him around $600 a month for:
- groceries
- gas
- car insurance
- health insurance
- phone
- emergencies
- savings
Car insurance alone eats a third of that in this state.
He works 40 hours a week and cannot save a dollar. Not because he's careless because there's nothing left to be careless with.
I spent thirty years paying off a house here. He's doing the same job I did at his age and he can't afford a one-bedroom.
That's not a discipline problem. That's not avocado toast.
The floor moved and nobody lowered the ceiling.
Working full time should cover a roof. In Florida it barely covers the rent on one.
Dust of Prince Reza Pahlavi.
Sure, that was a dump idea six months ago. But tell me how dumb it sounds now!
Exclusive: The request from a senior officer at the US military command carrying out President Donald Trump's war with Iran came in an email: We need ideas.
"We are looking for new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran," an officer in US Central Command's intelligence branch wrote in a message sent Wednesday to a broad group of military analysts, according to a source. cnn.it/452ggHW
Love how hard this goes. CATO Institute is a conservative think tank, BTW.
cato.org/commentary/export-i…
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🎼What do you do when a dead cat bounces (x3)
Ear-ly in the mornin'?!🎶
This quoted post is unavailable.
Mitch McConnel is apparently training hard in rehab to reach the level of fitness Strom Thurmond had at 100.
McConnell: “I’m still working hard to get back to my full schedule of work in the Senate and in Kentucky, keeping up with intense physical therapy per my doctors’ orders. Unfortunately, that means I won’t be able to make it to Fancy Farm, Kentucky this Saturday."
Capitol physician: "since his discharge from hospital care, he has maintained a strenuous course of physical therapy and rehabilitation, including multiple sessions a day designed to rebuild strength and reduce the risk of future falls. His bout with childhood polio continues to be a significant factor in his mobility. He is not yet medically cleared to leave the rehab facility and return to the office.”
new photo->
Reminder: you can book Alan Dershowitz on Cameo and get him to say almost anything on camera for money.
