Can data beat Buy & Hold? ₿ Bitcoin quantitative research • Backtests • Systematic strategies.
Joined September 2026
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If you already made my previous strategies go viral, you're gonna LOVE this one.
My new strategy outperformed simply holding bitcoin:native by more than 10x.
No leverage. No shorts. Spot only.
Motivation doesn't run your $BTC strategy.
Rules do.
On a 'great day' you follow them. On a bad day you follow them too. That's the whole point of writing them down.
What's your rule for today?
"Anyone can create a cryptocurrency."
True. Anyone can also print a stock certificate.
The question isn't who can copy the code. It's who can copy 15+ years of uptime, liquidity and a supply nobody has changed.
That part is checkable. Go check it. $BTC
"Arkham claims it was a sale." Has MARA confirmed it? Moving coins to a custodian and selling them aren't the same event.
And if it's ~1 month of output (their figure, verify), why is it headline news?
Everyone says AI agents will change the internet.
Ok. Will they change your $BTC process?
An agent can run a backtest in seconds. It can't tell you if the assumptions are garbage.
Tools scale. Bad logic scales too.
I have been thinking a lot about the rise of AI agents and how it will change the way we interact with internet products.
It feels like we have officially left the Internet 2.0 era and are now in the take-off phase of Internet 3.0.
The biggest change I see happening in our day-to-day lives is a lack of future interactions with multiple product interfaces.
Rather than navigating to various websites and using these products like neanderthals, we are more likely to talk with our agents, then these agents will "use" the internet and various products.
Everything becomes more digitally connected, including information and money, but we see a massive overhaul of the consumer internet experience at the same time.
You can think of this as the internet plumbing getting more complex, but the interface getting simpler.
This will be very obvious when it comes to software interfaces. I also see the same trend happening with how we interact with our computers and phones.
The amount of typing done by the average worker will quickly contract the same way that writing with a pen has largely contracted as a percentage of overall communication.
Speaking is faster than typing. It is easier and more natural. And it will unlock productivity, which drives economic returns for people and companies.
We will look back and think it is ridiculous that we used to put our hands on a keyboard, type in a URL, navigate to a website, and click a bunch of buttons to accomplish something.
You can see early signs of this shift towards simple, agentic workflows today. There is still a ton of opportunity ahead though.
I would love to hear whether others are seeing these shifts in their own behavior over recent months?
Forecast Quant retweeted
I backtested my own BTC strategy, and I'm publishing the uncomfortable parts too.
Weekly closes. Long only. No leverage. 0.1% fees.
$1 → $764 since 2014, vs $200 for Buy & Hold.
But the headline isn't the story. 🧵
I backtested my own BTC strategy, and I'm publishing the uncomfortable parts too.
Weekly closes. Long only. No leverage. 0.1% fees.
$1 → $764 since 2014, vs $200 for Buy & Hold.
But the headline isn't the story. 🧵
How it fails:
• Chop: the first trade lost 12.5%
• Late exits: −65% max drawdown
• Late re-entries: the 2019 buy was ~$5.2K vs a ~$3.2K low
Fills at the next open (767x) or 0.25% fees (755x) barely change anything.
Takeaway: a slow trend filter cut BTC drawdowns. Plausible.
But 6 trades on one asset isn't proof.
Code is open on TradingView: tradingview.com/script/SrLrx…
Try to break it. Not financial advice.
$126K to $80K.
If your thesis didn't change, your price shouldn't scare you.
But did you buy at $126K with leverage? Then the thesis doesn't matter. Liquidation does.
No leverage. No shorts. Spot only.
Buying $BTC inside your bank app sounds like adoption.
Ask the boring questions first.
Can you withdraw to your own wallet? Who holds the keys? What does the spread cost you?
Easy access isn't the same as ownership.
"$537K by 2030. 95% probability of $200K+."
A Monte Carlo is only as good as the assumptions you feed it.
Change the volatility or the drift a little and the 'probability' moves a lot.
What inputs did they use? Has anyone checked?
Bitcoin expected to hit $537K by 2030 and $1.48M by 2034 according to Monte Carlo simulation.
🟠🚀 🟠🚀
95% probability of $200K+ by 2030. 150% upside.
🫡 @sminston_with
"The bear market ended in June."
Maybe. But "accumulation phase" is a label you can only confirm after the advance shows up.
What's the rule that called it in June, in real time? And how often did the same rule fire too early?
$BTC doesn't care about the label.
Thanksgiving is a month away.
Already rehearsing my "no, it's not too late to buy Bitcoin" speech in the mirror.
Peak apathy. Disbelief. Capitulation. Euphoria.
Cycle phases are easy to name in hindsight.
Can you label today's phase with a rule written before the data? And would trading it have beaten buy and hold $BTC after costs?
We're back with another collaborative piece with Sultan of Sentiment @SullyMichaelvan.
Last time we joined forced we discussed Peak Apathy during the late stage bear.
This week, we're analysing what onchain + sentiment analysis tells us about Disbelief.
newsletter.checkonchain.com/…
ETF flows are the new daily horoscope for $BTC.
Inflows: bullish. Outflows: bearish. Both explained after price already moved.
Do flows lead price, or follow it? That's testable.
Until someone shows it, I treat flows as a description, not a signal.
