𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 𝗜𝘀 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗽. 𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲? On Sunday morning, prediction markets were giving Flávio Bolsonaro roughly an 𝟴𝟬% 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 of winning Brazil's presidential election. Lula won instead. By Monday's close, $EWS 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻 𝟭𝟵.𝟴% 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗘𝗪𝗭𝗦 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝟯𝟭.𝟲%. I keep thinking about what actually changed between Friday and Monday. Brazilian factories did not suddenly lose a fifth of their productive capacity. Banks were still lending, companies were still operating, and people were still going to work. Yet the price investors were willing to pay for those businesses changed enormously in a matter of hours. Of course, there are economic reasons for that reaction. The Ibovespa fell 𝟭𝟯.𝟴𝟴% in local currency, while the U.S. dollar gained 𝟴.𝟮𝟭% against the real. For an American investor holding EWZ, both movements affected the return. Expectations about fiscal policy, interest rates and future borrowing costs also changed after the election. What interests me even more is the psychology. If investors believed Bolsonaro had an 80% chance of winning, 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬%? At what point did a probable outcome become something people were investing as though it were almost certain? I cannot conclude that the market overreacted simply because the factories were still operating Monday morning. Future earnings and the cost of capital can change substantially even when today's operations remain the same. But I would like to know how much of that decline came from investors genuinely revising their estimates of future cash flows, and how much came from people suddenly abandoning positions built around an election result they expected. 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹. When I published my 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 — 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 in August, I was looking at individual companies rather than trying to predict an election. I examined the U.S.-listed stocks and the local B3 securities, including their 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀, 𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗲𝗲𝘁𝘀 and the risks behind their apparent discounts. With 𝗣𝗢𝗠𝗢𝟰, 𝗕𝗥𝗦𝗥𝟲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗥𝗔𝗣𝗧𝟰, I was particularly interested in normalized earnings, credit quality, debt and what ultimately belongs to shareholders. Now I would go back to those same companies and recalculate their values at the new prices, taking into account what the election may actually change for each business. I would rather do that work than automatically assume yesterday's decline was either a tremendous buying opportunity or a perfectly rational repricing. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 — 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗦𝗶𝘅 ($ASIX) 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗦𝗶𝘅 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟭𝟱, 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝗹𝘆 𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗳 𝗶𝘁𝘀 $𝟮𝟵.𝟱𝟭 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲. An industrial buyer could be interested in the plants, the fertilizer output or securing a supply of nylon. The price it could justify would depend on the cash it could retain. The company already targets $30 million of annual cost savings. Those savings are included in our Base valuation. A buyer paying a premium would need additional improvements to support the extra price. Today’s report works backward from a hypothetical offer, accounting for debt, diluted shares and executive termination benefits. It calculates the additional annual cash required and compares the savings threshold with AdvanSix’s operating expenses. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆’𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁, alongside the standalone asset and cash valuations. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗫𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘅 $XRX 𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗥𝗧𝗘𝗘𝗣𝗢 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲𝘀 𝗫𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘅’𝘀 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗮𝘁 $𝟳.𝟲𝟵 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗫𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘅 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. Its October 19 letter asks for clearer financial reporting and a formal strategic review. The fund wants an update during the October 29 earnings call. The business finances customers buying equipment. It earns income from those loans while Xerox pays interest on the borrowing behind them. An outright sale would raise cash and transfer future income to the buyer. How much Xerox keeps would depend on the funding that has to be repaid, transaction costs and taxes. Those numbers also help shareholders compare a sale with bringing in a financing partner. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 after debt, retirement funding and preferred shares. It also tests how buying back discounted bonds and issuing shares through warrants could change that value. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

Cable One — $6 a Share and a $480 Million Fight Cable One trades around $6 a share, valuing the entire common equity at roughly $34 million. Meanwhile, one of its largest lenders has gone to federal court to stop the company from paying $480 million for the remaining 55% of MBI. According to Cable One's own accounting for the purchase obligation, that interest has an implied equity value of approximately $54 million. MBI also carries an estimated $920 million in net debt. I find the history behind this transaction even more interesting. Going back to 2020, MBI borrowed money to pay distributions to its owners. Cable One later amended the purchase agreement, allowing additional money to reach those owners while delaying the final payment. Now the business is losing customers, generating less cash, and GTCR is involved in a proposed refinancing that could completely change Cable One's financial position. The stock has lost roughly half its value since Cable One announced a plan to address $2.45 billion in financial obligations. The broadband business still generates cash, but the terms of the refinancing could determine how much of its value belongs to today's shareholders. Our Cable One Special Situation report goes through the agreements, the money paid to MBI's owners, the actual cash generated by both businesses, the debt maturities and what could happen if GTCR receives Cable One shares. At $6, with only 5.67 million shares outstanding, the potential dilution deserves as much attention as the value of the assets. $CABO Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗙𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 ($FPH) — 𝗧𝗵𝗲 $𝟭.𝟰𝟱 𝗕𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗤𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 Five Point closed yesterday at $4.50, against roughly 𝗨𝗦$𝟭𝟱.𝟳𝟲 in reported capital per fully exchanged share. Last night, management cut its 2026 net income forecast from $100 million to just $20 million. I found the explanation on the conference call interesting. Some land transactions have already been negotiated, but builders simply don't need the land right now. They have enough inventory, home sales are slower, and those transactions are being pushed into 2027. Meanwhile, Great Park sent another $40.4 million to Five Point in distributions and incentive payments during the quarter. The company finished September with nearly $359 million in cash and about $91 million in net debt. FPH has the financial flexibility to wait for a better housing market. But waiting also costs money, and a shareholder can spend a very long time owning cheap land without seeing much of a return. I spent a considerable amount of time on this company because the discount is substantial, even after accounting for its complicated ownership structure. In the Deep Value Report, we separated San Francisco from the other assets, examined Great Park, Valencia and Hearthstone, and went through the development agreements to understand how the money eventually reaches shareholders. At $4.50, I still think Five Point deserves serious attention. But I would want to know exactly what I own, how much more capital it requires and when I can reasonably expect to see that value. 𝗙𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 — 𝗪𝗵𝗼 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻? Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗪𝗵𝗼 𝗢𝘄𝗻𝘀 𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗜𝘀 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿? Mercer International ($MERC) trades around 𝗦𝟬.𝟭𝟰, putting the entire stock-market value at roughly 𝗦𝟵.𝟰 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻. I've been thinking about that number in relation to the 𝗦𝟮𝟱.𝟴 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 interest payment Mercer did not make on October 1. A single bond coupon is now worth almost three times the market value of every share outstanding. Mercer is negotiating with bondholders representing more than 𝟳𝟱% 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗲𝘀, with a substantial capital infusion and debt reduction being discussed. The company still has pulp mills, lumber operations, power generation and a North American mass-timber business. Those assets have considerable value, but the creditors also have a very large amount of money tied up in them. And then there's 𝗣𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗞𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗴𝗴, whose reporting group owns roughly 𝟰𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿. He was still buying shares earlier this year, even as the financial problems were becoming increasingly obvious. I'm particularly interested in what happens to his position in a recapitalization. With that much ownership, he has influence, but he still has to negotiate around the banks and bondholders. In my 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲𝗿, I went through the major mills individually, put values on the assets, examined the German and Canadian debt facilities, the collateral, the bonds and what different transactions could leave for shareholders. At around fourteen cents, the potential percentage gains might look enormous. But I would want to know what percentage of Mercer today's shareholders could actually own after the creditors agree to a deal. The full 𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲𝗿 is available on FRAGMENTS. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗖𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗢𝗻𝗲 $CABO — $𝟲 𝗮 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮 $𝟰𝟴𝟬 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗙𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 Cable One's entire common equity is worth roughly 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝘆 $𝟯𝟰 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻. Meanwhile, the company is trying to pay 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟭𝟰 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗺𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁 — $480 million — for the remaining 55% of MBI, even though its own accounting implies an equity value of approximately $54 million for that interest. MBI also carries an estimated 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 $𝟵𝟬𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗻𝗲𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁. One of Cable One's largest secured lenders has gone to federal court to stop the payment. I went back through the agreements to understand how they got here. Since 2020, MBI has borrowed money and distributed cash to its owners, while Cable One and the sellers renegotiated their purchase arrangements. The owners received substantial payments along the way. Today, the business has fewer customers, generates considerably less cash after capex and still has an enormous amount of debt. Now Cable One is trying to refinance roughly 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, with GTCR involved in the negotiations. Depending on how that financing is structured, today's shareholders could end up owning a much smaller percentage of the company. What caught my attention was how much the answer changes once you work through the actual agreements instead of just looking at the stock price. For our latest 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, I traced the payments back to 2020, examined the cash flow and debt maturities, and calculated what could happen to the existing shares if GTCR receives equity. I also revisited our previous $24-per-share valuation and explain why those assumptions can no longer be taken for granted. At around $6, there could be considerable value in the broadband assets. 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝘁 𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆'𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗮 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. The full investigation is below. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 — 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀 ($STLA) Stellantis trades around $𝟰.𝟮𝟳 per share. Its last reported book value is roughly $𝟮𝟰.𝟳𝟬 per share, using the exchange rate in my report. We're talking about Jeep, Ram, Peugeot, Fiat, factories around the world, more than €46 billion of PP&E and a substantial Financial Services business. There is a lot of value inside Stellantis, although I wouldn't assume shareholders can recover anything close to reported book. At the end of 2023, Stellantis had €𝟮𝟵.𝟱 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 of Industrial net financial assets. By June 2026, removing the proceeds from the new hybrid capital, my calculation gets closer to €𝟱.𝟭 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻. They also completed a €3 billion buyback in 2024, recorded €11.645 billion of new warranty provisions in 2025 and have spent billions restructuring the business. But Stellantis is still selling millions of vehicles. Q2 generated €1 billion of positive Industrial free cash flow. The latest Q3 shipments were down 12% in North America and up 10% in Europe. I want to see what those volumes produced in operating profit, what happened to dealer incentives and how much cash was left after the remaining restructuring payments. 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟴 will give us another set of financial numbers. At these prices, I find Stellantis very interesting. I also think you can make a serious mistake buying an automaker simply because its reported assets are worth several times the stock price. I went through the Industrial balance sheet, debt maturities, hybrids, Financial Services, warranty, factories, regional profitability and capital allocation. I then calculated what different levels of recovery would mean per share, including what happens if the turnaround only partly works. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co… $STLA

𝐀𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐲 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐭 — 𝟐𝟔% 𝐨𝐟 𝐁𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 At the reference price used in our Deep Value Report, Arbor Realty Trust ($ABR ) was trading at roughly 26% of its reported book value. In July, the company spent $114.3 million buying back shares at an average of $5.42. Interesting numbers for a company the market seems to have given up on. But Arbor also has $4.55 billion of loans in its weaker credit categories, 36 foreclosed properties and billions in financing obligations. During the first half of 2026, it sold $112.8 million of foreclosed real estate while financing $107.8 million of those purchases itself. And then there's the Agency business, servicing $36.7 billion of mortgages for other investors. That business has value, even while the older apartment loans are being worked out. I wanted to know what an investor is actually getting at this price. How much are those troubled loans worth today? What could the properties sell for? How much is Agency worth on its own? And how much would be left after paying the lenders and preferred shareholders? 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐑𝐀𝐆𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐒 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐧 $𝐀𝐁𝐑 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐚𝐯𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞. We put dollar values on the loan recoveries, foreclosed properties, servicing business and other assets. Then we work through the debt, preferred shares and different outcomes, including what each could mean per share. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐝𝐞𝐛𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫, 𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐬𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐯𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗦𝗶𝘅 𝗙𝗹𝗮𝗴𝘀 $FUN An activist’s $𝟯𝟵.𝟮𝟲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 for Six Flags stands well above the $𝟴.𝟭𝟭 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲-𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 used in today’s report. That September 2025 estimate assumed a real-estate separation and an operating recovery. The pressure to sell makes it worth examining how much a buyer could justify paying for the properties and how much shareholders could keep. The FRAGMENTS Special Situation includes our own asset-price ranges in 2026 dollars, land and hotel transaction comparisons, cash per visitor, capital spending, debt maturities and the upcoming payments to outside partners. It follows those amounts through different sale scenarios to calculate 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. The complete report, including the property tables and sensitivities, is available to paid subscribers. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 $MERC — 𝗪𝗵𝗼 𝗢𝘄𝗻𝘀 𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗜𝘀 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿? Mercer closed Friday around $0.19, putting the stock-market value of all its shares at roughly $13 million. Here's something worth thinking about. Mercer's October 1 interest payment alone was $25.75 million. The company did not make that payment and is now using the 30-day grace period to negotiate with its bondholders. Meanwhile, Peter Kellogg's reporting group owns roughly 40% of Mercer. His latest disclosed purchase was another 419,743 shares at around $0.90 in June, when the company's financial problems were already well known. I find his position interesting, especially considering how much the shares have fallen since then. But I would be careful about interpreting those purchases without understanding what the creditors might eventually demand. I spent weeks going through Mercer's mills, putting values on the assets, studying the German and Canadian bank facilities and calculating what could actually be left for shareholders after the financial obligations are dealt with. Under my assumptions, Mercer needs roughly $1.75 billion of asset value before meaningful value begins reaching today's shareholders. And that calculation comes before whatever dilution might be required in a restructuring. With negotiations already underway, I'm particularly interested in how the creditors intend to deal with the existing shareholders, including Kellogg. The full 𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲𝗿 goes through the asset valuations, debt structure and different outcomes in detail. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

$LBTYA $MEA $NFLX $T $CMCSA

𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 — 𝐋𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 ($LBTYA) Liberty Global trades around $𝟖.𝟎𝟎. Its last reported book value was $𝟐𝟕.𝟎𝟒 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞. Investors are paying roughly 𝟑𝟎 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲 in a company that owns some of Europe's largest telecom assets. Last week, European regulators cleared the €𝟔𝟔𝟗 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 sale of VodafoneZiggo's Dutch towers. The proceeds are intended to reduce debt at VodafoneZiggo. That improves the balance sheet of the operating company, but it doesn't put €669 million into Liberty's corporate bank account. On October 20, the UK competition regulator opened a consultation on possible remedies for the Netomnia acquisition, while Liberty Global and Telefónica are challenging the regulator's assessment. Meanwhile, Wyre is being marketed to potential buyers, and Ziggo Group is being prepared for a 2027 listing. There are several ways for Liberty to realize value over the next year. But each transaction has its own ownership structure, financing obligations and consequences for the common shareholder. Liberty also paid €1 billion to Vodafone in July, and the November 3 results should give us a better picture of corporate cash after that payment. In our 𝐋𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭, we valued each business separately, including Liberty's two economic interests in Wyre, and then worked backwards from the stock price to calculate what investors may already be paying for those assets. The report was built using an $8.92 reference price. With the shares now trading around $8, the entry price has improved, although the financing and realization risks remain. 𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬, 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧-𝐨𝐟-𝐬𝐚𝐟𝐞𝐭𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐯𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐅𝐑𝐀𝐆𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐒. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 — 𝐀𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐲 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐭 ($ABR ) Arbor trades around 𝐔𝐒$𝟐.𝟗𝟎, roughly 𝟐𝟔% 𝐨𝐟 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐉𝐮𝐧𝐞 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞. In July, the company spent 𝐔𝐒$𝟏𝟏𝟒.𝟑 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 buying back shares at 𝐔𝐒$𝟓.𝟒𝟐. Investors can now examine the business at a price almost half what Arbor paid for its own shares. That repurchase was financed partly with new debt. Whether it benefits the remaining shareholders depends on what the loans eventually recover and how much cash Arbor needs before they repay. There is also an operating Agency business, with servicing contracts on 𝐔𝐒$𝟑𝟔.𝟕 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 of mortgages belonging to other investors. Those contracts generate fees while the older apartment loans are being resolved. The potential upside is worth examining, but assuming a return to book value would skip most of the work. The buildings need realistic valuations, the loans need recovery estimates, and the financing has to remain available long enough for shareholders to benefit. The 𝐅𝐑𝐀𝐆𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐒 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 puts numbers on those recoveries, the debt maturities and what remains for each class of investor. It also compares holding the business through a recovery with selling the assets—two outcomes that can leave shareholders with very different amounts. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲-𝐛𝐲-𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐯𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗦𝗶𝘅 𝗙𝗹𝗮𝗴𝘀 $FUN An activist shareholder estimated Six Flags could be worth $𝟯𝟵.𝟮𝟲 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 in a September 2025 proposal combining a real-estate separation with an operating recovery. Our report uses $𝟴.𝟭𝟭 as its share-price reference. With activists pressing for a sale of the company or its properties, the assets behind that difference deserve examination. Today’s FRAGMENTS report estimates possible sale prices for the 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗸𝘀, 𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱, 𝗵𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘀, 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗱𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿𝘀. It includes property comparisons, leased businesses and Saudi contracts, then works through cash generation, debt, outside partners and transaction expenses to calculate possible proceeds per share. The full Special Situation is available to paid subscribers. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗦𝗶𝘅 𝗙𝗹𝗮𝗴𝘀 $FUN An activist’s $𝟯𝟵.𝟮𝟲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 for Six Flags stands well above the $𝟴.𝟭𝟭 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲-𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 used in today’s report. That September 2025 estimate assumed a real-estate separation and an operating recovery. The pressure to sell makes it worth examining how much a buyer could justify paying for the properties and how much shareholders could keep. The FRAGMENTS Special Situation includes our own asset-price ranges in 2026 dollars, land and hotel transaction comparisons, cash per visitor, capital spending, debt maturities and the upcoming payments to outside partners. It follows those amounts through different sale scenarios to calculate 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. The complete report, including the property tables and sensitivities, is available to paid subscribers. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗦𝗣𝗘𝗖𝗜𝗔𝗟 𝗦𝗜𝗧𝗨𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 𝗗𝗢𝗦𝗦𝗜𝗘𝗥 — Redwood Trust ($RWT) Redwood Trust ($RWT) trades around $3 a share. Its last reported book value was $6.90. In September, Redwood spent $20 million buying back its own shares at approximately $3.63. CEO Christopher Abate bought another 100,000 shares around $3.84. Howard Amster has invested roughly $46 million at an average cost of about $4.08 per share. Bradley Radoff, an activist investor, wants the company sold. He has asked the board to hire an investment banker and look for a buyer. If the board refuses, he intends to nominate directors next year. Wellington now reports 17% ownership, while Amster owns about 9%. Wellington has not publicly said whether it supports a sale. Redwood owns three mortgage businesses, Sequoia, Aspire and CoreVest, along with substantial investment portfolios. There is also considerable debt, preferred stock and convertible financing to account for before valuing the common shares. The company reports its third-quarter results on November 3. We should get a better picture of book value after the recent mortgage asset sales and refinancing. In our Special Situation Dossier, we went through the assets, valued the mortgage businesses in today's dollars, examined the large shareholders and calculated what could reach common shareholders if a buyer comes forward. We also looked at what happens if Redwood remains independent. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗱𝘄𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗱𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘄. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 — 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀 ($STLA) Stellantis trades around $𝟰.𝟯𝟬 per share. At that price, the entire equity is worth roughly €𝟭𝟬.𝟳 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻, using the exchange rate in my report. Now look at the debt. Stellantis reported €𝟱𝟮.𝟭 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 of third-party debt at June 30. That's a pretty intimidating number beside a €10.7 billion market capitalization. But €28.4 billion of that debt belongs to Financial Services, which finances customers and dealers. Industrial debt accounts for the other €23.7 billion. I wouldn't treat the entire €52.1 billion as debt incurred to manufacture cars, just as I wouldn't treat the company's cash balance as money freely available to shareholders. Financial Services itself had €19.5 billion of financing receivables, up from €15.7 billion at the end of 2025. That business is growing while the manufacturing side is still trying to recover. The financing can be valuable, provided the lending profits justify the capital and the credit losses remain manageable. Q2 produced €1 billion of positive Industrial free cash flow, although the first half was still negative. The latest Q3 shipment figures are mixed, with North America down 12% following planned production shutdowns and Europe up 10%. We'll get a better look at the financial performance on October 28. I still think Stellantis is an interesting deep value situation at these prices. But I want to know what the manufacturing business can earn again, how much Financial Services is worth separately, and what is left for ordinary shareholders after the hybrids, remaining restructuring payments and other financial obligations. I went through those calculations in the Stellantis Deep Value Report, including the Industrial financial position, the assets, the debt and several different recovery scenarios with valuations per share. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co… $STLA

𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 — 𝐋𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 ($LBTYA) Liberty Global closed Friday at **$𝟕.𝟖𝟎**. Its last reported book value was **$𝟐𝟕.𝟎𝟒 per share**. Investors can now buy the stock for roughly **𝟐𝟗 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞**. Something interesting happened this week. European regulators cleared the **€𝟔𝟔𝟗 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 sale** of VodafoneZiggo's Dutch towers. The proceeds are intended to reduce debt at VodafoneZiggo, rather than go directly into Liberty's corporate cash. And this is where the valuation gets interesting. Liberty owns several businesses worth billions, but the money from selling an asset does not necessarily end up at the parent company. There are lenders, refinancing requirements, other shareholders and Corporate costs to account for. Wyre is another important piece. Liberty owns interests in the network through two different structures, and a potential sale could help establish what those interests are actually worth. In our Deep Value Report, we valued the businesses separately, worked through the obligations ahead of shareholders and **𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞** to understand what the market had already assigned to Wyre. The stock has fallen further since we completed that valuation. Whether this creates a sufficient margin of safety depends on what the remaining assets can actually deliver. **𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐋𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭**, including our Bear, Base and Bull valuations, the assumptions behind them and what the share price already reflects, is available on FRAGMENTS. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝐂𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐎𝐧𝐞 $CABO — 𝐎𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟐𝟎 Donald Graham has continued selling Cable One. Yesterday’s filing puts his reported beneficial ownership, including trust holdings, at 𝟒.𝟗𝟗%, down from 6.88% on October 14. He still reports 282,882 shares, so describing this as a complete exit would be wrong. Cable One’s operating cash flow left roughly $𝟗𝟑 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 after cash capital spending in the first half. Interest and cash taxes were already paid through that operating cash flow. Principal repayments still had to be funded, and refinancing at higher rates would reduce what remains even if the business stopped declining. The 𝐎𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟐𝟐 hearing concerns the court order blocking the MBI acquisition. Cable One’s last estimate was roughly $480 million to purchase the remaining 55%, with MBI bringing approximately $920 million of net debt. Permission to close would remove a legal obstacle, but shareholders would still need to examine the purchase payment, replacement borrowing and interest bill together. A settlement without completing the acquisition could produce a very different result. Cable One might pay to resolve the contract while avoiding full ownership of MBI and its debt. But the settlement would need to release Cable One from the purchase obligation, and the company would still have to refinance its own borrowings. The current court order does not give shareholders that outcome. We have rebuilt the analysis around those differences. Buying MBI at the contractual price, negotiating a lower purchase payment and settling without taking full ownership each leave a different amount of debt to support. A cheaper purchase also helps much less if the savings are absorbed by financing costs or securities issued to the new lenders. Our revised report calculates what remains for today’s shares under those outcomes, using cash after capital spending and operating taxes. The stronger valuations require an improvement in the business or a meaningful reduction in the obligations Cable One must satisfy. The company’s ability to keep operating, by itself, does not establish that the shares are cheap. 𝐂𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐎𝐧𝐞: $𝟏𝟕 𝐚 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 $𝟒.𝟑 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐆𝐞𝐭 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…