The perfect tool for all sports bettors! Handicapping tools. Picks. Odds Screen and more. Helping find +EV bets!
Joined October 2022
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GamedayMath retweeted
This whole “I ran 50,000 simulations” trend taking over sports betting Twitter is genuinely one of the stupidest things I’ve seen in a while. People are treating these numbers like they’ve discovered some revolutionary way to predict sports.
Running 50,000 simulations doesn’t magically make your predictions accurate. If your model is built on flawed assumptions, all you’re doing is generating the same flawed predictions with greater precision.
And the funniest part is how often these supposedly sophisticated models end up picking the overwhelming favorite. Congratulations, you’ve discovered that the team priced at -300 is more likely to win. The sportsbooks already told us that. We didn’t need 50,000 simulations and a fancy graphic to figure it out.
You’re competing against billion dollar companies with sophisticated pricing models, enormous amounts of data and professional analysts. Their odds are constantly tested by sharp bettors. What makes you think your little simulation has uncovered something they’ve all overlooked?
And the engagement farming is even worse. The moment one prediction comes close to being correct, they’re posting screenshots and celebrating like they’ve cracked some secret code. Something any ordinary sports fan could’ve predicted suddenly becomes proof of their model’s brilliance. Meanwhile, how many incorrect predictions conveniently go unmentioned?
Where’s the verified long term profitability? Where’s the evidence of consistently beating closing odds? Picking winners means nothing if the betting market has already priced them accordingly.
You’ve dressed up ordinary predictions in statistics, cherry picked your successes and convinced people you’ve discovered something groundbreaking. Shameful.
GamedayMath retweeted
2 things can be true
1. EV betting is a mathematically proven way to win money
2. Most bettors don’t have the bankroll and/or discipline to pull it off.
GamedayMath retweeted
I can’t say whether autism is on the rise but I can tell you that 10000 people a month are voluntarily opening a website about tennis court speeds to look at coefficients of friction and restitution
GamedayMath retweeted
If you were given Cowboys -200 instead of -340, then you could have went and bet Cardinals +300 at Fanduel and arbd for over 9% roi instantly.
Even if you don’t want the bet, you can choose to take free money.
The tripling down into this is sad to me honestly. It only happens in this space it seems where you can receive authoritative advice from very successful people (benson, pinnacle, pizzola etc) and then double down into saying they’re all wrong.
Imagine being into spinning pottery on a wheel, and you stand with this weird posture while making a clay mug. Then experts who make thousands of mugs and have sold hundreds of thousands of dollars in mugs give advice on fixing your posture to have better control of the clay and the wheel and you say- you’re definitely wrong my posture is correct while spinning pottery.
That would be nuts!
GamedayMath retweeted
33 rounds is the maximum number of games the winner would need to play if all 8.32 billion people on Earth entered a single-elimination Rock-Paper-Scissors tournament.
GamedayMath retweeted
Make College Football Saturday's easier to identify value by checking out the improved Handicapping page @GamedayMath with embedded line movement charts and the new Liquidity Pressure indicator to identify which side of the market sharp action is on!
gamedaymath.com/blog/liquidi…
GamedayMath retweeted
Why would I want to meet him? He sounds like a loser
Meet Thomas, a 35-year-old who got hooked to FanDuel and DraftKings in the pandemic, ended up $50,000 in the red. He filed for bankruptcy and signed up for a Pennsylvania registry that banned him from using betting apps.
More recently, he saw an ad for Kalshi offering a cash bonus. He got the app and couldn’t put it down. He’s now living with his mom and grandmother and taking loans from them to afford food and car insurance payments. “I have a gambling addiction” he wrote to Kalshi, begging for them to ban him, which they eventually did. But not before he was more than $25,000 in the hole.
Thomas represents dark side of the prediction market boom: Problem gamblers who relapse with Kalshi, which has blanketed TV, social media, sports stadiums, bus stations, trains, with ads trying to attract new traders, just as they insist they are not a gambling operator. That means they don’t honor “self-exclusion” registries maintained by states like Pennsylvania. Mental health clinicians say that creates a loophole for people like Thomas.
What really got Thomas were Kalshi’s 15-minute crypto markets, where you can make a binary trade on whether Bitcoin will be above or below a certain number every 15 minutes. There were times he was betting 18 hours a day in these markets.
He told me: “The odds flip so quickly. It’s such a rush. And when I’d lose, my brain just kept wanting to win it back. I never even traded Bitcoin or any crypto, but I just kept coming back to the rush of how unpredictable the markets were.”
A clinician I spoke to called 15-minute crypto markets “a slot machine in your pocket”
npr.org/2026/10/02/nx-s1-598…
GamedayMath retweeted
He's using the term +EV wrong.
What he means is, shopping for the best price is less important than picking winners.
And that's also wrong.
GamedayMath retweeted
It’s been fascinating seeing the Sydney Sweeney campaign unfold.
The two narratives:
⁃ she setback women’s sports by inappropriately sexualizing it
⁃ she’s receiving backlash from feminists who are jealous of her male attention
Not a single person is talking about how she correctly identified the most profitable consumer market for her to go into, negotiated a partnership with significant equity, and executed one of the greatest campaigns of all time.
The results:
- 60m views across company accounts (Polymarket’s LeBron campaign did 16M).
⁃ Google search is up 1100% vs prior month.
⁃ Novig has crossed 1B in cumulative trading volume since their August launch.
Sydney Sweeney being an intelligent, high agency entrepreneur will always be hidden by the fact that she is a hot blonde. If respect is off the table then respect be damned.
GamedayMath retweeted
Link to my full comment from yesterday's Innovation Advisory Committee meeting at the @CFTC led by @ChairmanSelig
Three main points:
1. Markets relating to war, terrorism, assassination, and other enumerated topics are some of the most valuable markets for both hedging and information gathering purposes. The fact these are sensitive topics only emphasizes the importance of providing clear guidelines that support innovative approaches to offering these markets, rather than categorical prohibition.
2. The economic value of sports markets has yet to be realized because most sports related prediction market activity has been on state sportsbooks, which are not regulated as serious financial markets.
Sports is a major part of the economy (>$1T annually) and public interest. Examples of the economic impact of individual sports-related events:
(1) Mattress Mack hedged his company's $50M marketing promotion related to the Astros winning the World Series.
(2) LeBron James signing with the 76ers is expected to generate $250M - $400M for Philadelphia in year 1.
These are just two examples of the huge economic consequences of sports. The Mattress Mack example shows how sports prediction markets can lead to innovations outside of the markets, in this case by allowing for creative marketing strategies. The economic value of these markets will become more apparent once sports markets are widely treated as financial markets at institutional scale.
3. State regulators protect corporate interests over customers. They allow sportsbook operators to exploit customers through predatory VIP programs that target losing customers, by banning winners, and by voiding winning bets.
I'm hopeful the CFTC will shore up federal prediction market regulation with a principles-based regulatory approach guided by the principle to Protect and Serve market participants and the public interest above all else.
Link to full comment below.
GamedayMath retweeted
2026 continues to produce incredible sports betting results!
+EV Bets: @GamedayMath
Bet Tracking: @pikkitsports
GamedayMath retweeted
It’s a sad sad day when I need to delete the app in the upper right hand corner
RIP to a Vegas sports betting institution
GamedayMath retweeted
MULTI-MILLION DOLLAR RINSE: Full single-post summary for people with normal sleep schedules of the most insane rinsing of bond bots I've seen firsthand, in which PM bonders appear to have lost 7 figures🤯
Scene: Last MLB game of the night (Giants vs Angels) bottom of the 10th inning tied 6-6. The time is ~1:15am EDT
- With the bases loaded, Devers hits what is normally a ground rule double. The initial final score shown is an 8-6 Giants win (due to an official MLB scorer error). Video below in thread
- Over 13.5 runs, Giants -1.5, and Giants team total o7.5 runs bond to 99c thanks to bots
- MLB rules state that a walk off ground rule double cannot score multiple runs and in this scenario counts as a single instead of a double
- People start to realize this and insane action comes in to unbond the above markets. Prices go absolutely haywire, touching 1c and 99c multiple times
- Kalshi closes and settles the totals & team totals markets while at least one (if not all) of the listed source agencies (MLB / Fox Sports / ESPN) still showed the final score as 8-6. PolyUS does the same for settlement of Giants -1.5
- However, the Kalshi spread (run line) markets remained open longer. Source agencies had then changed the final score to be 7-6. Market volume on the spread balloons from under 12,000 to 5 million (!) between the start of the bottom of the 10th inning and final market settlement
- Despite Kalshi settling the total as over 13.5 based on an 8-6 final score, per their CFTC rules, the spread must now settle Angels +1.5 as a win, and it does
- PolyInt settles Angels +1.5 as a win as well, rinsing botters there too and appearing to make the total losses for traders assuming a 8-6 final score "multi-millions" across all exchanges
- Sportsbooks all appear to have paid out incorrectly initially as well, but it seems all of them have resettled based on the 7-6 final score. CFTC certified exchanges on the other hand don't quite work the same way as sportsbooks.
- I fail to make riches since my 1am brain was staring at just the totals market and didn't notice the spread market had stayed open longer until it was too late
- I'm aware of some of the big winners, but am yet to hear who specifically were the big losers on this score adjustment
- Kalshi volume on the two "incorrectly" settled markets: 1.1mil on o/u 13.5 runs, ~60k on o/u 7.5 Giants team total. No idea or guess on how much was traded on the PolyUS "incorrectly" settled spread market. I would not expect a refund if you had the wrong side of these markets since the settlements appear to have complied with the sites' CFTC rules, but we'll see
TLDR: An official MLB score correction post-game made some grinders rich and rinsed others (mostly botters, I assume). Per the sites' CFTC rules, it appears all markets were settled correctly despite being inconsistent settlements
