
Putting thoughts @TheFiveHohl || Founded @HockeyDataINC & @HockeyGraphs
Vancouver, British Columbia
Joined March 2011
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Hockey analytics is not that complicated or niche:
* outscoring is good
* those that outscore don’t always continue to do so
* components of outscoring (shots/chances) shows process
* who you play with, against, etc makes things harder/easier to do good in goals/shots/chances
Garret Hohl retweeted
It's easy enough to answer this question, since we have runs or goals or points to win converters that allow us to create WAR for each sport
I will guess that in terms of wins per game for the top 10 league leaders, it is this:
NBA
NFL
NHL
MLB
Garret Hohl retweeted
32T starts with a lot of Hellebuyck talk. Key pieces:
- Would bet against Hellebuyck being there next weekend
- Belief is if he’s not traded by Friday, they’ll pay him not to come in
- Around the time of the opener Hellebuyck camp informed them he was ready to come back
- Jets utilized CBA power for “reasonable” length suspension that PA/League agreed on
- Couple of teams holding the keys to this: BUF, NYR (because G interest/3rd team), UTA
- On UTA “they grind you on trade talks, but if they want something…”
- The Jets prefer no deal to a bad deal BUT that’s much more difficult when you’re paying someone to be there
If you’re going to talk about how much different players make with different signing years, you have to acknowledge the percentage of the cap they signed under. 🎶
I still think (and the very early data somewhat supports this) that DeMelo (while declining) is still better (less bad) than Pionk.
Analytics killing hockey again
What if I were to tell you that Bauer has the 2nd best sG for the #NHLJets defenders*
*at a sample size that is essentially meaningless
Garret Hohl retweeted
What happens if Connor Hellebuyck wants to return to Winnipeg?
A: Things get real complicated.
@stevewerier explains👇
puckpedia.com/news/what-happ…
Important to practice what you preach. I started to do some of the testing that I said we need to do a lot more of...
Started with looking at GAR/xGAR compared to itself for one year to the next year, for all/F/D whether same/different team.
3 quick thoughts:
2) Defensive metrics
Forwards- defensive metrics is slightly worse than offensive metrics
But for Defenders, xGAR is equally good and GAR is actually better at defensive performance than offensive
There’s a special kind of cognitive dissonance in using one game’s stats to say “see, you were wrong” when it took years of those same stats to form the original opinion in the first place.
Garret Hohl retweeted
the answer to every flailing prospect is not just to simply sit them down in the AHL until they put up big numbers again to justify coming back.
what's the dev plan? what extra coaching attention is he going to receive? what are specific patterns they want him to pick up?
Garret Hohl retweeted
I’ve written about hockey analytics for 15 years. In that time, I always wanted a site that dug into not only IF a player is good, but when, why, and how. Something to help writers and fans tell those stories.
3 months ago I started building it
... and today, it's live!
Been a while since I wrote a philosophy of science like post on hockey analytics...
Plz read.
Hockey analytics is about measuring what we can observe, then using those measurements to infer what we actually care about.
But how do we know those inferences work?
A look at hockey analytics, testing, models, and the problem of measuring defense.
🔗 thefivehohl.substack.com/p/t…


















