Putting thoughts @TheFiveHohl || Founded @HockeyDataINC & @HockeyGraphs

Vancouver, British Columbia
Joined March 2011
Hockey analytics is not that complicated or niche: * outscoring is good * those that outscore don’t always continue to do so * components of outscoring (shots/chances) shows process * who you play with, against, etc makes things harder/easier to do good in goals/shots/chances
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1) watching the game on the flight 2) writing Hellebuyck trade article for Tuesday publish
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Hello Toronto, I am in you.
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Garret Hohl retweeted
It's easy enough to answer this question, since we have runs or goals or points to win converters that allow us to create WAR for each sport I will guess that in terms of wins per game for the top 10 league leaders, it is this: NBA NFL NHL MLB
This is the exact opposite takeaway you should be taking away from hockey, where an individual player swings team success less than most other sports. Stars are separating from the pack less than they used to. You need depth of separators, not bad players to protect your one guy.
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32T starts with a lot of Hellebuyck talk. Key pieces: - Would bet against Hellebuyck being there next weekend - Belief is if he’s not traded by Friday, they’ll pay him not to come in - Around the time of the opener Hellebuyck camp informed them he was ready to come back - Jets utilized CBA power for “reasonable” length suspension that PA/League agreed on - Couple of teams holding the keys to this: BUF, NYR (because G interest/3rd team), UTA - On UTA “they grind you on trade talks, but if they want something…” - The Jets prefer no deal to a bad deal BUT that’s much more difficult when you’re paying someone to be there
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If you’re going to talk about how much different players make with different signing years, you have to acknowledge the percentage of the cap they signed under. 🎶
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I still think (and the very early data somewhat supports this) that DeMelo (while declining) is still better (less bad) than Pionk.
Once everyone healthy and up and running I would want to see: Morrissey-Salomonsson Samberg-Pionk Ferraro-DeMelo And then dress Bauer as 7th D and go 11 F for some games.
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Something to keep an eye on (just for fun): Games as 2C… Lowry 3 Bjorck 2
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Analytics killing hockey again
the real answer is that they aren't, and they've gotten better at them in recent years as well league average PP% in 2011-12 was 17% and it's been above 20% the past five seasons. it's just that you get a powerplay and expect a goal and not a 20-25% chance of getting a goal
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What if I were to tell you that Bauer has the 2nd best sG for the #NHLJets defenders* *at a sample size that is essentially meaningless
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NHL Game Score Impact Card for Winnipeg Jets on 2026-10-09:
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Important to practice what you preach. I started to do some of the testing that I said we need to do a lot more of... Started with looking at GAR/xGAR compared to itself for one year to the next year, for all/F/D whether same/different team. 3 quick thoughts:
Been a while since I wrote a philosophy of science like post on hockey analytics... Plz read.
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2) Defensive metrics Forwards- defensive metrics is slightly worse than offensive metrics But for Defenders, xGAR is equally good and GAR is actually better at defensive performance than offensive
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3) Changing teams I found all metrics were much consistent year-to-year for players who played on the same team the next year than those that changed.* That can suggest some collinearity/usage we aren't accounting for, but also players often change teams for performance reasons.
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There’s a special kind of cognitive dissonance in using one game’s stats to say “see, you were wrong” when it took years of those same stats to form the original opinion in the first place.
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Stanley is fixed!
NHL Game Score Impact Card for New York Islanders on 2026-10-08:
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Garret Hohl retweeted
the answer to every flailing prospect is not just to simply sit them down in the AHL until they put up big numbers again to justify coming back. what's the dev plan? what extra coaching attention is he going to receive? what are specific patterns they want him to pick up?
Playing Sam Dickinson so sparingly just doesn't make sense to me. It's so painfully obvious he needs a confidence boost. Top flight AHL minutes would do him WONDERS.
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Garret Hohl retweeted
I’ve written about hockey analytics for 15 years. In that time, I always wanted a site that dug into not only IF a player is good, but when, why, and how. Something to help writers and fans tell those stories. 3 months ago I started building it ... and today, it's live!
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Been a while since I wrote a philosophy of science like post on hockey analytics... Plz read.
Hockey analytics is about measuring what we can observe, then using those measurements to infer what we actually care about. But how do we know those inferences work? A look at hockey analytics, testing, models, and the problem of measuring defense. 🔗 thefivehohl.substack.com/p/t…
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