Guy Harding retweeted
Good summary here by @shergar81
Another blow for racing: somewhere between £15m and £57m less funding on the way, thanks to the MGD rise.
And who benefits?
•AGCs, as betting shops close
•The black market, as the regulated market becomes less competitive
•Online casino, as customers keep migrating from racing to gaming
Once shop closures are counted, this may raise far less than the Treasury expects, possibly less net tax overall.
Campaigners sold higher MGD as tackling harm. The likely outcomes above suggest harm goes up, not down.
racingpost.com/news/industry…
Guy Harding retweeted
Here's the real story of this Budget, the can being kicked down the road. This Labour government is apparently planning spending cuts on most areas of public service spending of 2.6% per year between 2028-29 and 2031-32.
Pull the other one. It's got bells on.
UK election incoming? 2026 odds shorten from 14/1 to 9/1
cc @John_Stepek @lewis_goodall
Guy Harding retweeted
Betfair Exchange has 32% chance of a General Election next year - up from 20% last month
Gap year? Certainly some gaps in their grasp of the data
Losing it in Lima. This week, the CEO of the Gambling Commission flew all the way to Peru to complain about legitimate criticism of the regulator's statistics by people who weren't even there. Is this normal behaviour? What about the whataboutery...? danwaugh.substack.com/p/what…
Guy Harding retweeted
New UK betting exchange incoming?
"IG applies for UK gambling licence as it readies prediction markets"
tradeinformer.com/broker-new…
Just put 1p on every income tax rate and remove these silly cliff edges
Incentives and outcomes strike again.
FT decided to dig in to the biggest drag on growth this country has. We have a new record of a 72% marginal tax rate.
If you are evenly remotely above average, it increasingly feels like Britain is not the place for you.
I know many people caught in this. You either need household income closer to £500k or someone to stop working for this to make any sense. Yet again, the middle gets punished for doing the thing that the economy and country functions on (working, having a family).
I try to be optimistic here but I don’t see this being fixed. It’s too small of an issue to be a vote winner and high-risk for any politician who’s trying to appeal to the average earner in third world Britain.
Guy Harding retweeted
British horse racing is set to receive a significant financial boost with the duty on gaming machines set to rise by only 5 per cent in next week’s budget, The Times understands | ✍️ @Lawton_Times thetimes.com/sport/horse-rac…
Guy Harding retweeted
Strong reporting from @ByRobDavies on Anjouan, and worth reading for anyone who still treats the UK black market as an industry talking point.
Nearly 1,500 licensees. Sites marketed as "not on GamStop" to people who have actively excluded themselves. One accepting UK deposits, then calling and emailing over a hundred times to get the customer betting again.
That demand is real and growing. Where it goes next is a policy choice. The advertising ban proposed in the Lords would hand these operators a further competitive advantage over the ones who apply GamStop, verify age and pay tax.
What connects Tommy Robinson, Bonnie Blue, Leicester City FC, the tiny African island of Anjouan and an apparently respectable family of property investors from Mill Hill?
It's a strange tale...
theguardian.com/society/2026…
Nature is healing.
But if these berks can’t afford headphones I’m doubtful they’ll be able to settle fines
Playing music out loud on the bus? You could soon be fined £100 trib.al/hRhqxQX
Guy Harding retweeted
This letter to the Chancellor on a Category B MGD rise misses key facts:
• It doesn't protect bingo. Bingo halls rely on these machines, and Rank says a third of its venues could close.
• Betting shops close first and arcades survive. The Guardian reached the same conclusion.
• Revenue is disputed: EY's modelling shows a net loss to the Treasury once closures are counted.
• There's no evidence higher duty reduces harm. The 40% online rate hasn't curbed online casino.
• And not a word on racing, which would lose £92m a year.
Guy Harding retweeted
AI’s debt warning: CoreWeave’s 2032 bonds sink below 80 cents on the dollar into distressed territory, yielding >15%. CDS price in a 58% chance of default within 5yrs. Shares fell as much as 16%. Elon Musk’s verdict: “yikes.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
I love everything about this story.
Top tip: if you're betting on the Oscars don't watch any of the films
Screenwriter and self-taught inflation trader Brian Golden has found a highly profitable niche on Kalshi and is beating Wall Street banks from his garage in Los Angeles. Read our exclusive story: bloom.bg/4zveQTp
📷: Erica Hernández/Bloomberg
Guy Harding retweeted
The US stock market has never been this fragmented:
The 52-week correlation between the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the S&P 500 index is down to 0.67, its lowest level on record.
This measures how closely the performance of the equal-weighted S&P 500 tracks the cap-weighted index, with a lower reading indicating a growing gap between the broader market and mega-cap stocks.
The correlation has declined -0.25 points since August 2025.
By comparison, before the 2020 pandemic, this figure remained between 0.95 and 0.99 for nearly 15 years.
To put this into perspective, during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, this metric never declined below 0.85.
The S&P 500 is more concentrated than ever.
Surely the correct response here is two fingers back to the AI. If that doesn’t result in a face to face interview with a human we are all doomed.
Who’s really hiring you — HR or cyber security? — Sarah O' Connor ft.trib.al/0RApQ8S
Guy Harding retweeted
This is one of the WEAKEST US equity markets in history:
Only ~29% of the S&P 500's companies have outperformed the index over the last 3 years.
This is near the lowest reading since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, when this figure fell to ~25%.
The market has almost never been this concentrated.
