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$TSLA I've said many times that Tesla wouldn't sell Cybercabs to consumers. Anyone who thought they would sell Cybercabs doesn't understand the value of a purpose built unsupervised ride hailing vehicle. Tesla will generate close to 80% gross margins on Cybercabs once they ramp. Elon always sees several moves ahead and realized a long time ago that selling a cheaper version BEV was unnecessary in a world where autonomous driving would take over. This decision will once again prove to be the right one.
If what SpaceX is accomplishing doesn't excite you at any age then you should probably reevaluate some things. I am constantly in awe of what they have already accomplished in rocket engineering and what is yet to come.
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$TSLA There is no shortage of opinions from paid professional analysts and those on X or YouTube who follow Tesla on what it's fair value is and what hypothetical future values could be (absent a merger with SpaceX). I rarely if ever see analysis provided that truly understands what Autonomous functionalities built on a vision based system is worth. The key is how the vision based autonomy for vehicles (cars and trucks) will translate to humanoid bots. Tesla designed their solution to meet universal applications. What currently appears to be limitations regarding how Tesla is expanding Robotaxis has nothing to do with the software or the inference capabilities. The software and inference will only continue to improve. The constraints as I see it have to do with risk and operating capacity. There will arrive a point when Tesla will release data that shows its autonomous driving is 20x safer than a human and 10x safer than Waymo. At that juncture any attempts to delay Tesla's expansion will be overwhelmingly unpopular and seen as catering to special interests. I see that as a real possibility in 2027. Transportation is a multi trillion dollar business and Tesla will own the lion's share.
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$TSLA Daily reminder that Tesla is the only company that has a useful physical AI product that can be purchased by any consumer and is currently used by millions on a regular basis. Yet somehow most people don't understand the significance of that.
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TAAS or Transportation As A Service is what Tesla is setting out to provide as Robotaxis scale. I expect certain legacy ride hailing pricing structures (pay per mile rates + surge pricing) to remain in place while the fleet scales, once markets reach near saturation levels I think we can expect Tesla to offer TAAS pricing models. It's at that point when riders who subscribe will realize significant cost savings over personal car ownership and the entire auto industry as we've known it would be disrupted. When I see reports that other OEMs are working on new models or abandoning EVs for Hybrids and don't seem to realize Tesla is already 5 moves ahead and readying the board for checkmate it is clear to me that most won't survive in a world where TAAS takes the place of ownership.
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$TSLA with all of the Tesla influencers seemingly focused on merger mania it makes me wonder how many of them actually own a considerable amount of TSLA shares. There is no benefit for TSLA shareholders to dilute their % ownership in a company that is in the process of scaling the 'S' curve of Robotaxis. The benefits of merging with SpaceX over time are significant but not at this juncture. SpaceX valuation is riding in FOMO territory since the IPO. I have been a huge fan of SpaceX since they first started streaming their launches and was in awe of their abilities. Landing the booster on a barge in the middle of the Ocean is still unrivaled let alone catching it on the launch pad. Yet nearly all of SpaceX valuation is driven by the seemingly infinite demand for AI compute. Cycles do occur and that cycle is in full bullish mode, but history and logic dictate there will be a downturn. Yet actual real world agentic AI is currently the province of one company and that is Tesla. There isn't another company I know of that can currently deliver a product to consumers which handles a physically demanding task such as operating a motor vehicle better than Tesla. Demand for physical AI is just starting to build, but as Elon has stated will become a Tsunami. Let Tesla flourish and enjoy the stage for a while. When the time is right, and that day will arrive in the not too distant future, a merger between Tesla and SpaceX will be an exciting prospect not one that feels forced.
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$TSLA $SPCX There are many reasons, great ones, as to why these two leading edge technology companies should merge. My post would be quite long if I mentioned all of them. However the only reason why this has become a forced issue is due to politics and for that reason the rush to announce and complete it under the current friendlier administration. Quite honestly that sucks. Tesla shareholders stand to be the ones who lose out in the short term due to dilution and SpaceX shareholders really don't have a say ultimately given their structure. The best resolution is one that probably lets both companies stand on their own until a more thoughtful plan can be conceived around Tesla's near term catalysts being Robotaxis and Optimus outperforming Terrestrial Data Centers and Starlink. Long-term SpaceX will have some enormous revenue drivers and the notion that one company has an edge over the other will be nullified. Absent of that it would take a significant premium for a successful vote from Tesla's shareholders. I've seen 30% floated around as the premium, which basically gets back to around the ATH from last Dec. I don't think that gets over the voting hurdle. Imo it would take a set price and anything less than $575 probably won't pass. At $575 it would value Tesla at appx $2.26T which in 6-9 months could be quite conceivable. Price and valuations aside, which is a big hurdle, there is also the issue of Tesla's China based factories. There is less than 5% chance that the merged company would be able to continue operating those factories which produce appx $40B in revenues. That forced divesture would tank the new merged company's stock by at least 30% if not more. So any premium for Tesla shareholders eould be mostly wiped out in short order. SpaceX shareholders would obviously face the same outcome. The best course of action is to table the merger and figure out those issues mentioned above.
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$TSLA There will be a case study one day on this great company. I challenge anyone to identify a more innovative company that has grown to over $1T on value while still undoubtedly having its best days ahead of it. Yet while the company has been growing, innovating and executing it is rarely allowed to just stay out of the crosshairs of drama. For years the drama was of an existential variety as auto companies launched in the US have rarely if ever succeeded let alone one which fro. the start was devoted to a fully electric drive train. There was literally no infrastructure to support Tesla's survival. It's amazing that they not only survived but succeeded spectacularly in the process. Unfortunately that success inspired a lot of hate towards Tesla and efforts to undermine their growth. Yet the company endured. More recently the drama has involved Elon and whatever Elon does outside of Tesla. Tesla short sellers took advantage of Elon selling millions of shares to fund the purchase of Twitter. Elon's politics also provided his enemies with a target resulting in terrible attacks, unwarranted protests and negative media coverage of Tesla. We are now at a point where after years of drama, many shareholders have already thrown in the towel or are thinking about it and moving away from Tesla. All I can say is what a shame...Tesla had the greatest advantage of any public company ever which is a loyal and supportive Shareholder base. Doubtful Elon will ever read this but he hopefully will get some sound advice from those in his inner circle and understand the loyalty he took for granted
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SPCX TSLA shareholders in a 24 hour span saw the dichotomy of Elon's world. SpaceX articulated a positive, hyper bullish view in a professional way to the investment community on their earnings call. The share price responded positively to the messaging provided. Then 24 hours later Tesla in their earnings call provided what has become their typical unfocused, unintelligible, pessimistic recap and outlook. If these two calls weren't so proximate then maybe the disparity wouldn't have been so obvious. Purely anecdotal but I am an involved TSLA investor who has followed and participated in dialogue on X for years and I have never seen TSLA investors this disenchanted. Mind you their disenchantment isn't with the product Tesla makes or the services Tesla provides or with the incredibly dedicated employees. It's with the impression that Elon has not followed through with his commitment to the loyal Tesla retail investors. The same investors who have always had his back whenever it mattered.
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Is it possible for Tesla's reply to NHTSA regarding the questions presented to Tesla for self certification of the Cybercab to be published on X? Many Tesla supporters (owners, investors, FSD users) are interested in seeing this life saving product be approved for nationwide road usage in support of Tesla's objectives.
@teslasi
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$TSLA we are at an inflection point. Tesla has and continues to refine autonomous driving. It will ultimately redefine transportation as more people will benefit from low cost rides than actual ownership. Getting public buy-in will be the most difficult step. Sure there will always be people that are tech forward and trust all of the safety records. There are however more people who don't trust those safety records or even worse don't know that Tesla has this amazing software which exists today. Owners who pay $99/month don't have to drive they can supervise and let Tesla FSD chauffeur you around. I queried Grok to assess the costs for Tesla to run an ad campaign during live televised sporting events. Legacy auto bombards us with commercials for their products which can't provide the same advantages as Tesla. It's time to advertise, according to Grok, a strong ad campaign that would reach tens of millions would cost $40 million. At this point reaching tens of millions of viewers with a demonstration of FSD would generate returns far in excess of the total campaign cost. Hold your nose Elon and advertise.
$TSLA $UBER I understand why the debate between these two companies is happening now with Tesla successfully rolling out their first Cybercabs, but this isn't a contest of equals. Google if they wanted to compete against Tesla could mount a legitimate effort with their AI and Waymo under the same roof. Yet even Google wouldn't be able to compete with Tesla on pricing so it wouldn't surprise me if/when Tesla reaches 50k Robotaxis that Google will try to deliver from Waymo through a public offering.
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$TSLA With what I experience on a regular basis as I let FSD handle the driving in my MY I have been convinced that Tesla would solve fully autonomous driving for a long time now. What Tesla accomplished in getting Cybercabs from unveil to launch in under 24 months is remarkable! The only real obstacles left for Tesla they they can't solve by applying first principles and superior engineering is public perception. Special interests and the politicians who do their bidding are already lining up to derail Tesla from operating in many markets and/or scaling. Given how the legacy media has been weaponized to harm Tesla's reputation it doesn't surprise me that Elon is reluctant to advertise through those media formats. However, after watching Starlink ads I believe there is value in launching a big Cybercab centric media ad campaign. Not only does legacy media not bite the hand which feeds it but it wants more of your Advertising dollars. The audience that would view live sports is the ideal target market. Most still don't know Tesla has the best technology, literally years ahead of the competition. Cybercabs will change perception and turn public from negative to positive. Aside from Uber drivers who don't even seem to enjoy what they're doing nobody enjoys taking Ubers. Cybercabs will be the best form of transportation... it's time to share the future with the masses.
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$TSLA Regulators serve an important role to society, but I think over regulation has to be safe guarded against at all costs. If a product that has been developed over the better part of a decade has data showing that it significantly safer then the question shouldn't be 'how many human jobs will this technology replace'? Slow rolling adoption of a technology that can save lives and prevent injuries is paramount.
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In the US approximately 16 million new cars are bought/leased annually. With an avg price approaching $50,000 most buyers are still content to get technology which was developed last century. If that avg figure of $50k or greater is within your budget and you're not at the very least considering a Tesla at this point then why not? You can buy a Tesla Model Y for under the avg price. Is it a perfect vehicle? Depends on how you define perfect. The reality is you're getting a safe car with the most advanced technology. Every new Tesla is capable of taking you from pt A to pt B while you sit in your driver's seat and supervise. Once you experience Full Self Driving that is the game changer. Driving is probably the most stressful task most people will do in any given day. Supervised driving and eventually unsupervised driving takes away most of that stress.
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$TSLA Tesla is set to scale their Robotaxi business in the next 9 months. Given the rate of production of Cybercabs they will have 1000s of revenue generating Robotaxis roaming around 24/7 in at least a dozen cities by the middle of Q2 '27. Technology is advancing at a pace that gives me great confidence in the trajectory of the scaling process. At a current mkt cap of $1.2T the idea of Robotaxis might be priced into their valuation but the proximity to scaling the business isn't. Any hypothetical model that plugs in COGS and Revs from a Cybercab dominant approach will yield software like margins. Unlike software which has a precarious moat, the Robotaxi business model will have a nearly impenetrable moat. Transportation is a necessary commodity. Tesla will be able to price the cost of transportation at levels that will make competition impossible. A true valuation of Tesla would start to model a Robotaxi business at scale.
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$TSLA investing is as much a measure of how you maintain an even keel as it is any other mental aspect. Believing that Tesla is a company unworthy of investing into or holding as an investment because sentiment has been negative is an emotional decision. Allowing emotions to dictate investment decisions is why most individual investors are better off simply choosing an index fund approach. I can clearly state without any emotional bias that Tesla is 10x the company it was back in Nov 2021, yet back then the market cap for the stock wa higher than it is today. When there is a clear disconnect between what the market perceives as fair value and what a company has under its hood is where opportunity exists. If an investor needs quarterly results to confirm worthiness of investment then the best opportunity has likely already bypassed. Some investors are frustrated because timing hasn't met their expectations or other opportunities would have been better. Yet if you understand returns are rarely linear and exponential growth can happen quickly you also need to adjust your expectations. Quarterly results can guide investors especially when evaluating more mature companies, but with high growth companies focusing on frontier technologies they can also be misleading. Choose carefully and build your own conviction.
$TSLA over the past 5 years Tesla has built a business that is unrecognizable from where it was in 2021. The value creation in the company by every metric has been significant with one exception and that is the market cap. The longer the base the bigger the breakout...not my quote but definitely applicable to TSLA.
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$TSLA while I understand the reason for some healthy skepticism or impatience at this point, from my vantage point we are days and many steps closer to seeing the true version of Tesla Robotaxi unveiled and Optimus V 3.0 starting production. While other companies' equity valuations have certainly run laps around Tesla, I think Tesla's opportunities viewed in TAM will prove in hindsight to be a huge missed opportunity for many. Being a TSLA shareholder is hard, the rollercoaster ride isn't enjoyable for most investors. At the end of the day remember as a shareholder you own a piece of the underlying company not some ticker symbol.
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$TSLA many companies, including those with significantly larger market capitalizations than Tesla, have swung and missed in product launches and acquisitions. Yet, Tesla and Elon specifically are constantly given grief for what are perceived as swings and misses. Tesla like every other company has missed on some products but they've also consistently attempted bigger swings. So while Tesla solar has been a miss, Tesla BESS has been a huge success. If Cybertruck has been somewhat of a miss (from a sales perspective) then the Model Y has been a legendary success. I think it's important to compare and contrast. Apple folded their Autonomous Vehicle project after devoting years and billions into that project. While it's prudent to analyze progress through a realistic lens it is also foolish to ignore the complexity behind achieving levels of success. Apple wisely concluded that they wouldn't be able to produce an Autonomous Vehicle to compete with Tesla. One of the best companies when it comes to ROIC came to that conclusion and yet people still can't see what Tesla has accomplished.
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