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Tuesday morning Election 2024 forecast landscape: Skilled forecasters panels favor Harris, betting platforms favor Trump, and statistical models have no idea.

Final pre-election day forecast landscape. Skilled forecasters give an edge to Harris. Betting markets (except PredictIt) give an edge to Trump. Statistical models occupy the toss-up middle-ground.

Harris' chances continued to improve overnight. Interestingly, the US-based mrkts give her better odds (51% avrg) than the foreign-based mrkts (46% avrg). She's the favorite of the skilled forecasters panels (Hypermind, Good Judgment, Metaculus), with 55% probability avrg.

Accelerating Kamalamentum in the last few days before the vote.

Kamalamentum, forecasting platforms edition

It's just a correction back toward the true odds.

Comparative analysis of Harris vs Trump forecasts over the last month. @GJ_Open @superforecaster @metaculus @FiveThirtyEight @TheEconomist @ManifoldMarkets @PredictIt @Betfair @Polymarket @Kalshi