@Hypermind_com

Prediction markets since 2000 (previously NewsFutures).

 New York - Paris - Madrid
hypermind.com
Joined May 2014
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Hypermind retweeted
Ochlosophe@ochlosopheOct 15
Candidats à la présidentielle ? 🔴 Mélenchon 98% ⚫ Le Pen 95% 🌹 Glucksmann 90% 🟡 Philippe 88% ⚫ Zemmour 85% 🔴 Roussel 78% 🔵 Lisnard 69% 🔵 Retailleau 63% 🟡 Attal 30% ⚪ Villepin 28% 🟢 Tondelier 23% 🔴 Ruffin 21% 🌹 Hollande 17% 🟡 Lecornu 4% ⚫ Bardella 3% ⚫ Maréchal 3%
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Lend your brain to Ukraine! Glimt is a joint project of the Swedish and Ukrainian governments, powered by Hypermind, open to everyone. Perhaps the first use case of crowd forecasting as a weapon of war against evil. Join us here: glimt.nu/glimt/en/welcome.ht… @kikollan @NunoSempere @jorgebmontanes @PTetlock @robinhanson @JamesSurowiecki @JustinWolfers @IgnatiusPost @pennockd @DavMicRot @Scott_E_Page @page_eco @GlimtCommunity @FOIresearch
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Tuesday morning Election 2024 forecast landscape: Skilled forecasters panels favor Harris, betting platforms favor Trump, and statistical models have no idea.
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Replying to @ochlosophe @Onefora29958575
Agreed.
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Replying to @ochlosophe @Onefora29958575
Whatever happens, nobody will be totally right or totally wrong. It's just probabilities on a single event.
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Final pre-election day forecast landscape. Skilled forecasters give an edge to Harris. Betting markets (except PredictIt) give an edge to Trump. Statistical models occupy the toss-up middle-ground.
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Harris' chances continued to improve overnight. Interestingly, the US-based mrkts give her better odds (51% avrg) than the foreign-based mrkts (46% avrg). She's the favorite of the skilled forecasters panels (Hypermind, Good Judgment, Metaculus), with 55% probability avrg.
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Accelerating Kamalamentum in the last few days before the vote.
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Replying to @JamesSurowiecki
Kamalamentum, forecasting platforms edition
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Replying to @peterwildeford
It's just a correction back toward the true odds.
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Replying to @leomschwartz
@leomschwartz
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Replying to @ochlosophe
Garbage in, garbage out.
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Comparative analysis of Harris vs Trump forecasts over the last month. @GJ_Open @superforecaster @metaculus @FiveThirtyEight @TheEconomist @ManifoldMarkets @PredictIt @Betfair @Polymarket @Kalshi
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Replying to @ochlosophe
« Prediction polls » est le terme technique. Voir researchgate.net/publication…

(PDF) Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls

PDF | We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction... | Find, read and cite all the research you...

researchgate.net
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Replying to @ochlosophe
Ce n’est pas un *marché* prédictif. Aucun acheteur ni vendeur ni investissement ni même pari.
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Replying to @robinhanson
@robinhanson
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It is remarkable that our prediction market is now (Oct 26) the only crowd-forecasting or statistical model that still gives Kamala Harris slightly more chances of winning (54%) than losing. All others are now favoring Trump more or less boldly.
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Join the FIGHT to make the most accurate forecasts about swing states and congressional control! New contest launched today with > $1,000 reward. predict.hypermind.com
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Replying to @nikosbosse
@nikosbosse you might also be interested in this research on infectious disease crowd forecasting that we conducted with Johns Hopkins : drive.google.com/file/d/1T_M…

Disease Prediction BMC-Public Health.pdf

drive.google.com
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Replying to @nikosbosse
Thanks @nikosbosse. We have not drawn any conclusions yet. Just getting started. Need to gather more data, including 2024.
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