What are the inviolable constraints on the Global Financial Markets and the Global Economy?
Joined March 2019
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Invariant Perspective retweeted
📌 Hyperscalers
Hyperscalers have issued $296 billion of debt worldwide so far this year, with another $440 billion expected in 2027. The pace may vary from borrower to borrower, depending on market conditions
👉 isabelnet.com/blog/
@GoldmanSachs #AI #debt #bonds #tech
Invariant Perspective retweeted
The secret to making money on a counter-cyclical trade: be ahead of the crowd.
Long bonds was one of my best trades in 2024. I'm long bonds again.
The Fed will cut rates and/or end QT next week on the pretext of curbing shelter inflation. Let's say I'm wrong. What's the downside in buying 2Y treasuries here?
Leveraged funds are record net short 2Y treasury futures $ZT_F. The positioning is lopsided. Volatility is low. There's a higher likelihood of a move higher like in March 2023 than a spike lower.
Positioning is equally lopsided in 5Y treasury futures $ZF_F.
This is an asymmetric setup. I can be wrong and hurt very little; I can be right and gain a lot. With equities throwing a tantrum, I like the odds even more.
Buy bonds, wear gold (IYKYK).
Invariant Perspective retweeted
Thank you to all the US veterans and their families. Thank you for laying it down for all of us.
Invariant Perspective retweeted
FinTwit broke the story on $NVDA sanction and export control violations 3 years ago.
Wall Street ignored the evidence and called us Twitter randos.
In every bubble, you can either look like an idiot before the crash or after.
I'd rather be a Cassandra than a Henry Blodget.
Nvidia $NVDA complies with all US sanctions and export controls. They said so themselves, way back in 2017, in a correspondence with the SEC regarding sanctions violations. No way they are using SPV-like structures or preferred partners to bypass export controls to China. High time the skeptics stop with the pattern recognition and get themselves a cool leather jacket. @kakashiii111 @DarioCpx @JG_Nuke
Invariant Perspective retweeted
Far simpler answer: these people do not have real morals, positions or beliefs, moving in a shifting sand of Chud Growth Consensus that coalesces around whatever they think might make them richer or feel better about themselves, mostly because a number went up
Invariant Perspective retweeted
Can I get a 104?
Yes, indeed, coming soon.
And when you get dollar strength and bond strength, you get severe strain on the global financial system which leads to widening of credit spreads it reduces compute demand which will reduce the availability of prepayments for core weave, which then goes to zero, unless some idiot tries to buy them on the way down because they could get them much cheaper and not have to pay for all their debt
There is no path to profitability at core. We’ve run by the most corrupt, disgusting wretched crew, the former Atlantic crypto in my opinion.
@davevermilion @DavidDTawil @GeorgeGammon @SantiagoAuFund
Invariant Perspective retweeted
According to reports out of TechCrunch and Axios, the Don had as many as 60 direct reports and delegated little.
Invariant Perspective retweeted
🚨 Something extraordinary is unfolding around Jensen Huang, and prediction markets are now pricing in a scenario that would have seemed almost unthinkable just a few weeks ago: Nvidia $NVDA potentially losing the man who built it into the world's most valuable AI company.
📊 Jensen Huang's departure is becoming the base case as there is now a 59% probability that Huang announces his resignation or removal by TODAY. The amount of money involved is remarkable as nearly $16.8 million has already been traded across the departure markets, including $4.7 million on the December 2026 contract alone. Traders are committing substantial capital to the possibility of an imminent leadership change.
🚀 The speculation extends well beyond Nvidia. Another market is assessing whether Huang could join Elon Musk's SpaceX $SPCX before the end of 2026. That probability currently stands at just 8%. Meanwhile, markets related to his personal life are pricing a 17% probability of divorce by December 2026 increasing to 32% by March 2027.
⚖️ The situation has become a major corporate governance issue. Reports suggest Nvidia's board is considering Huang's removal following allegations involving his personal relationships and potential national-security concerns. Nvidia previously announced an independent investigation while expressing confidence in its CEO. The uncertainty has already triggered a sharp market reaction with Nvidia shares reportedly falling approximately 8.6% in after-hours trading.
🌍 The implications could extend far beyond Nvidia itself. Huang is not simply another technology executive, he has been instrumental in shaping Nvidia's strategy, its relationships with hyperscalers and its position at the center of the global AI infrastructure boom. An abrupt departure would raise questions about succession, strategic continuity and the company's ability to maintain its extraordinary competitive position.
🧠 Nvidia's technological advantages and the structural demand for AI computing would not disappear overnight but the market could still demand a substantially higher risk premium if confidence in the company's governance deteriorates.
Invariant Perspective retweeted
Gross that NPR plays this with no pushback. If you heard a white guest saying “we need to band together to fight non-whites” with no pushback they’d be off the air forever
Invariant Perspective retweeted
Among data center operators Needham & Co. covers, “none are signing CoreWeave as a tenant anymore without a full rental backstop from an investment grade entity, which further hampers CoreWeave’s ability to hit targets.” 👇🏼
wsj.com/business/energy-oil/…
Invariant Perspective retweeted
Analysts are just ignoring the smuggling story. This is absolutely astonishing! A failure across the industry
BofA on Jensen Huang's potential departure:
"A hypothetical departure of CEO Jensen Huang would challenge confidence in NVDA's strategy and innovation cadence. But, assuming no unexpected financial exposure, a leadership shock need not imply irrecoverable franchise risk. Supply-chain scale, fullstack innovation and ecosystem gravity are NVDA’s durable moats, well supported by a less-visible yet highly effective internal R&D and operating bench."
$NVDA
Invariant Perspective retweeted
If the entire AI trade is “over,” the soldiers in the S&P 500 (ex-AI) will have a lot of heavy lifting to do to keep the bull market from stalling out. As we see below, the equal-weighted index has performed quite well lately but in a top-heavy market it may not be enough to provide positive beta to the headline index.
Invariant Perspective retweeted
This is the definition of insanity, and it shows how far the @UN has fallen.
Invariant Perspective retweeted
When @kakashiii111 and @DarioCpx brought this up nobody took it seriously despite it being very weird that the largest company on the American stock market suddenly decided to change how it reported its revenues!
WSJ: "As recently as the summer of last year, Singapore was officially one of Nvidia’s biggest markets, generating 22% of the chip maker’s revenue. Then, practically overnight, it disappeared from the company’s financial disclosures. Investors deserve to know why, and Nvidia needs to start explaining, with or without Jensen Huang at the helm. The timeline indicates that Nvidia altered its methodology for reporting the geographic breakdown of its revenue shortly after placing Megaspeed International on an internal block list. It isn’t clear if the two are related, but the shift had the effect of removing visibility into Nvidia’s sales tied to Singapore. That is the home to Megaspeed, the cloud-computing company embroiled in a sex-and-espionage scandal that has engulfed Nvidia and its chief executive."
wsj.com/business/earnings/nv…
