S&J Investments (@J5jayfive) header
S&J Investments (@J5jayfive) profile picture

Back from Hiatus | Capital Markets AI Sales Exec | Focus on AI infrastructure | Research & Video breakdowns | MBA | Ex Stripe & Meta

NYC
Joined August 2016
Photo by S&J Investments (@J5jayfive)Photo by S&J Investments (@J5jayfive)Photo by S&J Investments (@J5jayfive)Photo by S&J Investments (@J5jayfive)Photo by S&J Investments (@J5jayfive)Photo by S&J Investments (@J5jayfive)Photo by S&J Investments (@J5jayfive)Photo by S&J Investments (@J5jayfive)Photo by S&J Investments (@J5jayfive)Photo by S&J Investments (@J5jayfive)
I help Wall Street firms implement AI. The gap between leaders and laggards is now real. Here’s what I’m seeing inside enterprise AI, and what it means for investors, businesses, and your career. The State of Enterprise AI 2.0: Leaders and Laggards ↓
6
2
2
29
4,417
Working on a new video. Will drop a deepdive / comp on three emerging pillars in the AI energy complex. $FPS $VICR $INIO All three down +50% off their high. Perfect time to figure out if you should own them. Will drop tomorrow
Dropping your best content at 10PM is probably not the best idea, but I just finished this Photonics Mini-Doc on $LITE, $COHR, and $AAOI. Its 10 minutes, too long for casual investors but whatever, This tech is fucking crazy. Visuals are A+ and do the tech justice. If you actually understand what you're investing in, you should watch. 🔹 0:00 – Intro 🔹 0:38 – What Is Photonics & Why AI Data Centers Need It 🔹 1:55 – The Different Business Models ($LITE at 2:01 · $COHR at 2:55 · $AAOI at 3:44) 🔹 4:34 – Leadership 🔹 5:54 – The Financials, Cash Flow & Balance Sheets 🔹 7:51 – Stock Performance 🔹 8:34 – This Week's Earnings Expectations & Final Take I compared expectations vs my models at the end. There is one moment where I misquoted $AAOI as a 1bn dollar company vs a 6 billion dollar company. But I made sure the visuals and subtitles were correct. More coming S&J 🔹 (Posting this from the ✈️ to 🇬🇧)
1
100
Oppenheimer apparently doesn't think AI is dead. Big Price target on $AMD. I actually respec the big target and not just chasing price action.
6
588
Before everyone gets excited about $TTD As someone who worked in Ads for a decade at Meta and Google… This company is cooked guys. Amazon ads and Google DV360 are eating them. Revenue is going backwards YOY. They beat the worst of expectations. I would rather own $ZETA
3
8
2,551
I’m going to go against the grain here. Lot of doom on FinX, folks waiting for the bottom to fall out again. I generally believe this bounce is real and we are close to bottom. I also very much believe we have swung too bearish on AI. Keep in mind I work in AI , so there is a chance my real life is an echo chamber of bulls. But also keep in mind I work in AI…. I can see the enterprise projects currently in RFP and being scoped that have not rolled out yet. I can see the forward demand. That doesn’t mean I expect a V shape recover. But I don’t see how you aren’t starting to buy stuff you like here if you can have a long term view. I did sell a lot on Thursday towards open (thank god) so I missed some carnage. That said, I got crushed in October. I did buy all of it back Friday mid day. I believe too many people on this platform are pissed at FinX stock picker accounts and not mad enough at the hedge funds who over levered and had to unwind on us in July and October. That was more of the fall than stretched valuations. Yes some AI names outran their business metrics. But a lot of these names are quality, and selling last week wasn’t just AI, it was everything. That felt and looked more like forced selling than valuation resets. Overall, with: - lot of leveraged removed from the market. - the 10 year yield coming down a lot due to the pullback - less power center with Trump meaning more gridlock and stability - Iran proving so toxic the GOP has no choice but to try and get out - many tech stocks down 30-50€% from highs. - ai regulation should curb capex spend and slow inflation. I do feel the Risk reward here the next 12 months has shifted to the long side. My super power is really in fundamental analysis and earnings/eps projections and finding mispriced stocks. Right now I’m pretty powerless given this market. I’m excited to get back to a world where a beat and raise on an underpriced stock is something that will generally send it up. Because I am really good at making money when the stock market is acting rationally. I think it’s coming sooner than later.
2
14
892
Closing time in the 🌆 🗽
6
566
I know there is fear of a data center slowdown But last week there was a moment when $COHR was *NEGATIVE* Year to date and flat over the last 12 mo. People aren’t appreciating how much of this is hedge fund blowups. There’s no way some of these aren’t opportunities
20
1,650
This stupid list I shared two weeks ago is exactly why I am not doing stock picks right now lol. That said…. IF!!!! we rally out of the bottom. I expect these to move the most. Not saying they get to highs, but they could run off the bottom significantly
Top 10 High Beta Stocks for a Snap Back End of Year Rally: 1. $CRDO — Credo Technology • % Off 52W High: -45.8% • Beta: 3.25 • Gross Margin: 67.1% • Free Cash Flow: $439M TTM → $1.17B Proj FY27 (+166%) 2. $AXTI — AXT Inc. • % Off 52W High: -59.3% • Beta: 1.86 • Gross Margin: 32.2% • Free Cash Flow: +$3.6M Last Q (Flipped FCF+) → $70.2M Proj FY27 (+393%) 3. $AEHR — Aehr Test Systems • % Off 52W High: -56.6% • Beta: 3.07 • Gross Margin: 34.7% • Free Cash Flow: +$1.1M Last Q (Flipped FCF+) → $16.2M Proj FY27 (+275%) 4. $ALAB — Astera Labs • % Off 52W High: -42.6% • Beta: 3.69 • Gross Margin: 75.1% • Free Cash Flow: $277M TTM → $1.26B Proj FY27 (+355%) 5. $FPS — Forgent Power Solutions • % Off 52W High: -59.1% • Beta: 3.87 • Gross Margin: 31.4% • Free Cash Flow: +$19.1M Last Q (Flipped FCF+) → $283M Proj FY27 (+270%) 6. $MU — Micron Technology • % Off 52W High: -26.0% • Beta: 2.23 • Gross Margin: 80.7% • Free Cash Flow: $59.0B TTM → $135.8B Proj FY27 (+130%) 7. $SITM — SiTime Corp. • % Off 52W High: -45.6% • Beta: 2.88 • Gross Margin: 58.7% • Free Cash Flow: $84M TTM → $548M Proj FY27 (+555%) 8. $WDC — Western Digital • % Off 52W High: -52.4% • Beta: 2.17 • Gross Margin: 52.6% • Free Cash Flow: $4.29B TTM → $7.59B Proj FY27 (+77%) 9. $BE — Bloom Energy • % Off 52W High: -37.8% • Beta: 3.78 • Gross Margin: 32.3% • Free Cash Flow: $440M TTM → $1.30B Proj FY27 (+196%) 10. $LITE — Lumentum Holdings • % Off 52W High: -24.2% • Beta: 1.54 • Gross Margin: 41.7% • Free Cash Flow: $551M TTM → $1.16B Proj FY27 (+110%) Honorable Mentions: • $SNDK (Scored #1 mathematically at -44.6% off 52W high, 5.22 Beta, 71.5% GM, $11.5B TTM → $30.8B Proj FCF—moved here since I already have $MU and $WDC in the Top 10 and there’s too much noise around memory right now) • Next up (#11–#16): $LSCC, $VICR, $STX, $ONTO, $VRT, $MRVL • Growth-CapEx Outlier: $NBIS (-43.2% off 52W high, 1.46 Beta, 74.3% GM, +$5.26B TTM Operating Cash Flow) 🔷 Methodology: We screened 115 AI Infrastructure names across 4 equal 25-point pillars: 52-Week High Displacement & Beta (25%), Forward Revenue Growth (25%), Forward PEG & Gross Margin (25%), and Free Cash Flow Generation & FY27E FCF Growth (25%). 🔷 Because this market is ruthlessly punishing cash-burning story stocks, we enforced a strict Free Cash Flow Gate: Every stock in the Top 10 must either be TTM FCF-positive today or have already flipped FCF-positive in its most recent quarter with explosive FY27 cash flow expansion ahead. That immediately filters out heavy cash-burn traps and isolates the beaten-down, high-beta AI bottlenecks that actually print cash when the tape turns. S&J 🔷
3
1
25
2,288
Looking back….. there were some signs…
1
11
1,191
Pretty strong beat here by $CEG Energy remains the one bottleneck that cannot be solved. Could start to pull up other ai energy providers $BE $FPS $INIO This is assuming there isn’t more unwind by hedge funds.
3
17
1,546
Probably not a great sign….
1
11
1,360
Yo I can’t even lie this is crazy… Just like… as a thing that’s happening in real life right now. Historic moment. Jensen has been as close to a rockstar as we have in business. Can’t overstate how wild this is.
$NVDA CEO JENSEN HUANG’S DRAFT MEMO TO EMPLOYEES, OBTAINED BY AXIOS. “I owe my family and all of you an apology.” “I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry.” “Leading NVIDIA is the privilege of my life.” “I am fully committed to NVIDIA and will work to earn back your confidence.” Regarding the national security investigation: “I support the investigation and will cooperate fully.” “My family bears no responsibility for my choices. I do. Please give them privacy.” NVIDIA’s board has launched an independent investigation into reports that Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. The board says it currently has no reason to believe U.S. national security or NVIDIA’s secrets were compromised.
7
16
1,907
Chamath says if regional data center moratoria slow down new construction, the dollar cost per GPU hour is going to go through the roof—and only mega-cap balance sheets like $GOOG and $Meta will be able to afford the premium. 1 min clip
2
11
1,037
Cantor cuts their $IREN target in half from $99 to $47 (price in image is the price when the released the note)
2
1
23
2,588
Needham lowers their $AAOI target from $190 to $100... Analyst chasing the market per usual. Thanks guys....
5
1
1
58
7,625
$NBIS and $CRWV report this week. I dropped a 10 min Neocloud mini doc last week comparing the major players. This is the moment to sort the treasure from trash. Don’t be lazy. There is still money to be made in the right places.
12
1,133
$SITM revenue numbers are fucking absurd at +257%. But they also have several Non-AI businesses in hypergrowth too: • Mobile +133% • Auto/industrial/space +76% They are also a major supplier for Apple devices Here is everything you need to know in 5 minutes:
4
3
29
3,371