Back from Hiatus | Capital Markets AI Sales Exec | Focus on AI infrastructure | Research & Video breakdowns | MBA | Ex Stripe & Meta
NYC
Joined August 2016
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S&J Investments retweeted
Close your eyes.
It’s May 2026, you’re up 376% for the year.
$NVDA just reported a blowout. The market explodes.
@SemiAnalysis_ says memory hasn’t even started yet.
Serenity pumps a new bottleneck.
Korea is ripping.
Life is good.
😭
S&J Investments retweeted
$AXTI: "I do think our gross margin will go up some more. I don't think we peaked and I think it's reasonable to expect that it could begin with a six in the next quarter."
S&J Investments retweeted
Well there’s also the math.
OpenAI and Anthropic are projected to make a combine 200bn in 2027.
That enterprise budget is coming from somewhere…
S&J Investments retweeted
$MU
Memory bears when they are forced to actually look at the data and listen to executive AI commentary:
(The amount of data you have to ignore to be bearish here is truly astounding at this point.)
$MU comments from KeyBanc conference:
1. Micron are supplying less than half of data center demand.
2. Micron's customers are insensitive to memory prices.
3. Micron highlight multi-year demand with some customers signing LTAs to 2030+.
4. Micron says it will be the only company producing memory in the U.S.
This commentary highlights that there is zero cyclicality. No one's signing LTAs years out under inelastic pricing conditions if you think supply catches up next year.
Useful to remember also that the end of prior memory cycles came because supply > demand, where capacity was built ahead of committed demand.
However, in my opinion, the market has re-rated memory back down towards cyclical valuations.
Regardless of continued price increases and GM expansion, surely Micron etc. deserve to be valued higher purely based on the supply/demand gap that's there to be filled over the coming years?
S&J Investments retweeted
the ai trade is one of the most exhausting ones I've ever been around, the narrative flips weekly, trillion dollar companies move like shitcos, the 200-500b companies trade like pink sheet names. This whole thing is hilarious to watch on a day to day basis.
S&J Investments retweeted
I firmly believe you need to be building a long term port right now.
I’m running my bank account low to do so. Not dangerously low but less cash than normal.
It could get worse, but can’t time the bottom.
Do your research. Buy great companies on weakness.
Let it play out.
S&J Investments retweeted
lol. I am heavy memory but have been scaling into photonics on the pullback. There is a place for both.
The issue is everyone is forcing a narrative as to why memory needs to go backwards. Every piece of data we get says this shortage is actually increasing, the product is increasingly differentiated and not commoditized, the leaders have moats, and the revenue visibility is structurally different than it ever has been due to its place in the AI value chain.
I don’t want to be stubborn but I can’t break my position just because the price action has cooled off for (checks calendar) 6 weeks.
I need to see something in the thesis break (or at least bend) before I move from this one.
S&J Investments retweeted
The current memory capitulation has more to do with price fatigue and loss of momentum than the underlying thesis or metrics.
“Price will stop accelerating” does not mean it’s slowing down. It means it will begin to normalize, can still scale and improve margins.
The case is stronger now than it was 3 months ago.
A lot of folks are finding reasons to justify being sick of the price chopping sideways while other sections of the AI trade rebound faster.
S&J Investments retweeted
I'm fortunate to have experienced the early 2000s on an institutional trading desk.
One thing I know for sure: today's market is nothing like the market before 2008.
Algorithms, social media, and the democratization of information completely changed the game.
Moves that once took months or years to unfold can now happen in days or weeks.
Today, to win in the market you need to:
• Learn faster than others
• Filter noise better than others
• Think independently
• Deep expertise in a specific area
• Adapt quickly
The market is faster, but that doesn't mean it's impossible to succeed. The tools are available to anyone willing to put in the work.
I think it's one of the most exciting times ever to be an investor.
S&J Investments retweeted
Kimi is temporarily closing the door to new subscribers because its GPUs cannot keep up with demand.
We can debate valuations and bubbles all day, but the underlying message keeps repeating: there is still not enough infrastructure to serve the demand.
Kimi K3 has received far more love than we expected, and our GPUs are feeling it.
Over the past 48 hours, demand has pushed close to the limits of our current capacity. To protect the experience of existing subscribers, we're temporarily pausing new subscriptions and prioritizing compute for current members. Existing subscribed users are not affected.
We're adding capacity as fast as we can and will reopen new subscription spots in batches.
Going forward, we'll also split membership into two more focused plans: Kimi Membership for Kimi Web, App, and Work; and Kimi Code Membership for coding workflows. This will help us match compute more precisely and keep the experience stable.
Thank you for your patience and understanding!
S&J Investments retweeted
Every new frontier open weight model seems to reinforce the same trend…
Bigger models require more compute.
Most companies aren’t going to buy tens of millions of dollars of GPUs to run them.
They’ll rent AI infrastructure instead.
That’s exactly why I’m so bullish on $NBIS.
The better AI gets, the more valuable AI compute becomes.
Kimi K3 2.8T is so large that it will not fit on a single NVIDIA DGX B200, even at FP4. A GB300 NVL72, B300, or MI355X system is required, as each GPU has 288 GB of memory.
One optimization that could make Kimi K3 fit on B200 is to gang multiple nodes together and use a technique called WideEP. The issue is that B200 has only 400 Gbit/s of bandwidth between nodes, whereas NVL72 has 18× higher inter-node bandwidth.
S&J Investments retweeted
Days like this remind us we are really ants hoping they drop bread crumbs, and don’t step on us while we try to pick them up.
S&J Investments retweeted
Like I said 6 weeks ago....20% drops in memory is normal. This recent drop was 24%.
I held $MU from 120 in 2024 and added slowly until summer 2025. Saw many drops and took a lot of time for memory to get the respect I thought it deserved even back in 2024 but here we are. Did eventually reduce my exposure to MU to diversify into $DRAM and go heavier in $VICR(in IRA tax free) but still hold around 30% of total investments in memory(mostly MU+DRAM and a tiny bit of SIMO). This feels completely normal. If you're new to memory, get used to the crazy swings. If you have no memory, this is a great time to consider a starter position.
There will be pullbacks/corrections for sure, 20% or more is normal is normal for $MU. They will say "told you so" when that happens just like they were at 320 at the end of March. Bears better be happy with quick/small wins. Memory demand is growing way faster than supply due to agentic AI. Google told you they will accelerate capex significantly next year. Markets are VERY forward looking which is exactly why $MU traditionally traded at low multiples, forward looking markets price in future price collapses. But now the structural demand trend is completely different than pre AI. Funny that someone with a name like "The Long Investor" would have such a short term view. Yes parabolic moves have nasty pullbacks but as a long term investor who isnt overleveraged, that doesn't phase me at all.
June 2024, MU went from 150 to 80s within 2 months. Almost 50% correction.
November 2025, went from 256 to 192 within days, over 20%
March 2026- MU went from 460 to 320, almost 30% drop
It will happen again, and so will the recovery and new high being made.
S&J Investments retweeted
UBS raises its DRAM and NAND price forecasts
DRAM prices are now expected to rise 32% QoQ in Q3 and 18% QoQ in Q4.
NAND prices are expected to rise 30% QoQ in Q3 and 12% QoQ in Q4.
UBS raises its memory pricing forecasts again, arguing DRAM and NAND shortages are likely to persist well into 2028 despite ongoing LTA negotiations.
The latest supply-chain checks continue pointing out that demand is still outpacing supply.
UBS increased its DRAM contract pricing forecasts for 3Q and 4Q26 and continues to expect the memory market to remain undersupplied through at least 2028. The firm believes LTAs are increasingly locking in both pricing and volumes, improving visibility for memory suppliers.
Also important: UBS sees no meaningful impact from $META 's comments, arguing HBM procurement assumptions remain intact across $NVDA , $GOOGL , $AMD and Meta. It also believes the recent pullback in memory stocks reflects positioning rather than deteriorating fundamentals.
$MU
