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Action Wrapped is here 🎁
One of my best years yet I think:
— Baseball HRs carried me
— Glad I could rely on my Pirates for something
— Action team we need top players/props next year!
Let me see yalls ⬇️
Lost a couple units in CFB yesterday, been tough sledding lately, gotta find a groove.
What I like today for Noon:
— Ashton Jeanty o49.5 rush yds
— Ceedee Lamb o80.5 rec yds
— Jakobi Lane o29.5 rec yds
— Justin Jefferson o75.5 rec yds
— Elic Ayomanor o32.5 rec yds
Few words why:
— Jeanty unbelievably due for a good rushing box score, Jets without a couple key guys up front that should make things easier.
— Cards are top 5 zone usage and number 1 in two-high usage; Ceedee has the best YPRR by far on this team vs two-high.
— Really like Lane as a receiver and this Bills D is the perfect spot for him to breakout. Lamar back, snaps increasing, shootout type of game and he gets involved.
— JJ has to eat here, Lions are a pass funnel and WRs have put up huge numbers vs them this year. Back to him this week.
— Been an Ayomanor fan since the Stanford days, no Tate here, polished route runner, think there will be plenty of opportunities for him here. Just need Cam to get the ball out. Has posted great separation scores this year, think it pays dividends this week.
GL today! 🍀
CFB Saturday - CVS Receipt Edition 🧾
Sides:
🔹 Navy TT u13.5 (-115)
🔹 Iowa ML (-125)
🔹 Maryland +2.5 (-102)
🔹 Arizona +4.5 (-118)
🔹 Colorado -2.5 (-110)
🔹 FIU +14 (-112)
Props:
🔸 Nate Sheppard o112.5 rush yds (-115)
🔸 Talyn Taylor o43.5 rec yds (-110)
🔸 Turbo Richard o89.5 rush yds (-110)
🔸 Bryant Wesco Jr o52.5 rec yds (-115)
🔸 Jet Thomas o98.5 rush yds (-114)
Everything I've locked in for the week. Long day ahead, enjoy Halloween fellas 🎃
Bryce under fire the entire game, tough L here
Early look for Panthers/Packers:
— Tet McMillan o71.5 rec yds (-115)
Few books hanging a lower line here. Tet has been solid vs Two-High this year, logging 2.71 YPRR. GB runs it at the 3rd highest rate this year, and the most over the L3 weeks.
ARSB, Ceedee, and London are some other stud WRs that have >2.00 YPRR vs Two-High that have logged good box scores vs the Packers.
Like Tet and Bryce Young to bounce back here after a tough outing vs TB.
Glad this game lived up to the hype ✅
I have to get involved, don't care if it's the squarest prop on the board.
Taking Jahiem White o138.5 rush yds. Yes that is a real line.
He's 7th in FBS in rush yards, and T-7 in missed tackles forced. This FAU defense grades out as a bottom-10 rush D, and 4th worst in tackling per PFF. They have surrendered 978 rushing yds over the last two weeks, again, real stat.
This team now has to go and play at N Texas on a short week, and the Mean Green are planning to pack this place out. I can't see how FAU stops them from moving the ball. Square, yes, hitting, also yes.
I have to get involved, don't care if it's the squarest prop on the board.
Taking Jahiem White o138.5 rush yds. Yes that is a real line.
He's 7th in FBS in rush yards, and T-7 in missed tackles forced. This FAU defense grades out as a bottom-10 rush D, and 4th worst in tackling per PFF. They have surrendered 978 rushing yds over the last two weeks, again, real stat.
This team now has to go and play at N Texas on a short week, and the Mean Green are planning to pack this place out. I can't see how FAU stops them from moving the ball. Square, yes, hitting, also yes.
Early look for Panthers/Packers:
— Tet McMillan o71.5 rec yds (-115)
Few books hanging a lower line here. Tet has been solid vs Two-High this year, logging 2.71 YPRR. GB runs it at the 3rd highest rate this year, and the most over the L3 weeks.
ARSB, Ceedee, and London are some other stud WRs that have >2.00 YPRR vs Two-High that have logged good box scores vs the Packers.
Like Tet and Bryce Young to bounce back here after a tough outing vs TB.
Guys rostered in 90% of leagues that have yet to score a TD:
— AJ Brown
— Rome Odunze
That’s it. Both in primetime this week. Finally their time?
JClyde retweeted
New Chart Monday! I have YPRR against Man Coverage vs. YPRR against Zone Coverage
If you really want to know, Omar Cooper would be two full chart lengths to the right of Tee Higgins
- 2.98 YPRR vs. Zone and 10.69 YPRR vs. Man
Metrics per @FantasyPtsData
Two MNF Props I like, odds on @ProphetX
🏈 Jake Ferguson o17.5 rec yds (-115)
Not going to sugarcoat it, he's been bad this year. But I want to build an argument for him to bounceback here. He was benched last week for Brevyn Spann-Ford, banking on that lighting on fire under him.
Biggest thing he has going for him is that the Eagles allow the highest slot target % in the league at 36.1%. Ferguson this year is clocking the 2nd most routes from the slot for the team this year just behind Flournoy, and 52.7% of his total routes.
The Eagles don't skew super heavily towards Man or Zone, but favor cover 3 and 6 looks this year. One way Dak & Ferguson can take advantage of this is through seam & go routes. If you look at Ferguson's stats this year on these, he's run 26 go routes this year and has actually graded out in the 84th percentile in separation score on these. He's also generated his highest YPRR specifically on go-routes (1.52), good for 75th percentile.
Tie all that in with it being the final game of National TE Day/Weekend, I'm willing to take a stab at maybe one of the lowest lines we see all year with him.
🏈 Makai Lemon o38.5 rec yds (-115)
As a Steelers fan I was admittedly upset when the Eagles stole him in the draft, but he hasn't really shown up yet. With injuries sidelining Smith & Wicks, he could be in for a massive usage boost here. Let's break it down.
The main stat I wanna key in on here is Makai Lemon's route tree, and specifically hitch routes. He's run the 3rd most hitches in the entire NFL thus far (53). He's behind Olave and Bourne if you're curious. So, I looked at every game the Cowboys have played thus far and how opposing players did on hitch routes vs them:
M Golden: 2.08 YPRR /12 rtes
C Watson: 3.86 YPRR / 7 rtes
Egbuka: 3.5 YPRR / 6 rtes
Godwin: 2.33 YPRR / 6 rtes
J Noel: 1.57 YPRR / 7 rtes
M Andrews: 2.38 YPRR / 8 rtes
R Bateman: 2.00 YPRR / 3 rtes
T McLaurin: 5.00 YPRR / 10 rtes
M Nabers: 2.67 YPRR / 9 rtes
I Likely: 2.50 YPRR / 8 rtes
That's good for an average of about ~2.8 YPRR on hitches which is pretty decent. Now Lemon hasn't shown a ton of flash this year, but I think it's fair to say he's the only rookie WR drafted with this type of capital that's been healthy that has yet to show up.
An extra day to prepare with Tanner McKee and at home, the rookie finally gets his chance.
If you read all this you’re a legend. GL! 🍀
Pushed money around in CFB yesterday, going for broke today in NFL:
🏈 Bijan Robinson o121.5 rush+rec yds
🏈 Harold Fannin o28.5 rec yds
🏈 Jamarr Chase o80.5 rec yds
🏈 Kenyon Sadiq o18.5 rec yds
🏈 Justin Jefferson o72.5 rec yds
🏈 Michael Wilson o48.5 rec yds
🏈 Tucker Kraft o49.5 rec yds
Basically betting every game, what could go wrong?
