Hobbyist Election Forecaster, NFL appreciator, and Warhammer enjoyer. Particularly interested in Kansas Politics.
Overland Park, KS
Joined July 2026
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One of the most annoying things about this app is every few months when gimmick accounts figure out some new way to manipulate the algorithm and the home page is just endless slop for a few days or weeks
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Jackson Martin retweeted
Will we ever learn
#Chiefs HC Andy Reid announced that K Harrison Butker is staying as his kicker for Week 10 vs. the Atlanta Falcons.
Jackson Martin retweeted
Democrats won the popular vote in the North Carolina State Senate races by 16 points, 58 - 42.
By all metrics, North Carolina is the most gerrymandered state in the country, and as a result, Republicans will keep their majority in the chamber by a few hundred votes.
🚨CHAMBER CALL🚨
Republicans have held NC SD-24, and thus have held their majority in the North Carolina State Senate. Republicans have prevented a Democratic trifecta in the state by just a few hundred votes.
projects.statenavigate.com/2…
WE TRADED FOR A WIDE RECIEVER
Trade: The #Colts are trading WR Josh Downs to the #Chiefs, per me and @AdamSchefter, as Patrick Mahomes gets another playmaker.
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If Kansas Republicans had consolidated around Vicki Schmidt or Scott Schwab they probably win the Kansas Governor's race, but Trump just couldn't resist the urge to endorse a hyper-partisan fighter figure
I was wrong, it was seat #51
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Around a D+7% or above generic ballot is when the Kansas State Senate map gerrymander breaks and you could see 15 DEM state senators
I promise I won't just tweet about 2028 constantly I'll find other things to do
Jackson Martin retweeted
I think polls are going to be off and probably in favor of Ds
Most pollsters are herding excessively. With the normal error you expect on polls, there should be far more variation than what we're seeing
And I think it's primarily out of fear of underestimating Republicans again
Jackson Martin retweeted
For the record my gut was that Marshall was favored in 2020 and my gut now is that he's cooked and Hamilton will win
I believed this was a reporting error before I checked the results and saw it was around the same D-R split for other statewide races
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Great piece on one of the wildest upsets in the Kansas State house this year. Datacenters certainly played a role, but an exceptionally strong DEM campaign, local DEM organizers and activists, and a GOP incumbent asleep at the wheel gave DEMs a stunning win here. #ksleg
The story behind a 25-point swing toward Democrats in the Kansas exurbs of Johnson County. New from me, gift link:
kansascity.com/opinion/opn-c…
Jackson Martin retweeted
One of the most shocking results of the midterms was Seward County, KS, home to the majority Hispanic city of Liberal, voting not just for Adam Hamilton, but every single downballot Democrat. The Trump+39 county has been affected by ICE raids and tariffs, and turnout was massive.
Tbh the way Alaska does RCV is not ideal. Best is probably something like this, which I think is how NYC does it?
- RCV primary elections for party nomination. (I really like RCV for primaries)
- RCV general election with each party nominee and independent candidates
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