Johnny Bowen

SSW/POLAR VORTEX: I have been getting many questions about last night's post here about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in progress. Let's clarify in plain English... Twenty miles above the North Pole, a river of wind circles the Arctic — a fence keeping the coldest air on Earth bottled up over the pole. Next week, that fence collapses — earlier than ever recorded. The air high above the pole warms sharply in days (that's the "sudden stratospheric warming"), the circling winds reverse, and down comes the fence. All 50 European forecast scenarios show it by November 12; the record is November 28. What it means for Alabama — and what it doesn't: *It does NOT mean cold arrives next week. The next two weeks stay mild. *It DOES raise the odds of real cold later. With the fence down, Arctic air can spill south in the weeks that follow — for us, the window is Thanksgiving into December. *The wildcard: a super El Niño brings a wet, busy storm track here. Cold air meeting that moisture is the December combination to watch. Bottom line: no hype, no snow forecast — just better-than-normal odds that December brings cold. I get the idea our weather will be pretty interesting over the next 4-6 months. Stay tuned.