Jordan Lucilus retweeted
🚨 BREAKING
THE FED ANNOUNCES ITS RATE DECISION TODAY AT 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET)!
IF HOLD (3.75%-4.00%) → MARKET PUMPS
IF HIKE (4.00%-4.25%) → BLOODBATH
CME FedWatch has the hike odds at about 10%. In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold.
But the decision is only half of the story. Warsh press conference starts at 18:30 UTC (2:30 PM ET). On September 16 the hike was fully priced, and stocks still fell because of his tone.
A December hike is priced near 80%. If Warsh confirms it, even a hold can turn ugly.
ALL EYES ON 18:00 UTC!!
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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Jordan Lucilus retweeted
🚨 US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DROPS TODAY, ONE DAY BEFORE THE FED. LAST MONTH IT HIT A 12 YEAR LOW.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (October), out at 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET). Expected: 81. Previous: 81.9.
IF confidence > 81 → market dumps
IF confidence = 81 → nothing changes near-term
IF confidence < 81 → market pumps
In September the index fell 6.7 points. Consumers said prices and fuel costs were their biggest worry. Average inflation expectations for the next 12 months were 6.1%, and 68% of consumers expected higher interest rates.
The Fed decides tomorrow at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET). A stronger consumer gives the Fed more room to hike in December. A weaker one gives it a reason to wait.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 THE WEEK THAT CAN BREAK THE MARKET: FED, ECB, BOJ, GDP, PCE AND BIG TECH EARNINGS. OCT 26-30
MONDAY, OCT 26
🟢 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 2-Year Note Auction
Earnings: Verizon, Cadence and 8 others
TUESDAY, OCT 27
🟡 12:15 UTC (8:15 AM ET): US ADP Weekly Employment Change
🔴 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
🔴 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US New Home Sales (Sep)
🟡 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 5-Year Note Auction
Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS and 41 others
WEDNESDAY, OCT 28
🔴 14:30 UTC (10:30 AM ET): US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
🔴 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET): FOMC Rate Decision
🔴 18:30 UTC (2:30 PM ET): Warsh Press Conference
Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet (both after the close) and 41 others
THURSDAY, OCT 29
🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Q3 GDP (advance)
🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Core PCE (Sep)
🔴 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Initial Jobless Claims
🔴 13:15 UTC (14:15 Frankfurt): ECB Rate Decision
🔴 13:45 UTC (14:45 Frankfurt): ECB Press Conference
🟡 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET): US 7-Year Note Auction
🟡 23:30 UTC: Japan Tokyo Core CPI (Oct), Friday morning in Tokyo
Earnings: Amazon, Intel, Coinbase, Strategy and 62 others
FRIDAY, OCT 30
🔴 03:00 UTC (12:00 Tokyo): BoJ Rate Decision and Outlook Report
🟡 06:30 UTC: BoJ Press Conference
🟡 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): US Chicago PMI (Oct)
Earnings: ExxonMobil, Chevron and 11 others
What to watch:
→ FOMC on Wednesday: a hold is the base case. The real risk is the Warsh press conference and his tone on inflation and oil.
→ GDP and PCE on Thursday: consensus sees Q3 GDP at 3.2% and core PCE at 3.1% y/y. Goldman still expects one more hike in December.
→ Fed, ECB and BoJ all decide within three days. A surprise from any of them hits the dollar, the yen and bitcoin.
→ Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, Amazon Thursday. The AI trade gets tested after the mid-October tech sell-off, with Brent still above $100.
→ Coinbase reports Thursday after the close, Strategy the same day. Watch what they say about bitcoin.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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Jordan Lucilus retweeted
The double standards are staggering! @longlivejxdah
Jordan Lucilus retweeted
The @GOP must be thrilled that 11 days before elections, we learn that the Trump family secretly orchestrated a deal to allow Russians to drill Alaska in exchange for a $25 billion "investment" funneled through their proxies.
Jordan Lucilus retweeted
Burnham is absolutely terrifying the hard-right grifters right now.
They simply have no answer to someone who approaches politics with empathy, inclusion and hope. Someone who meets their fearmongering with positivity, their division with inclusion, and their outrage with calm, rational argument.
Their entire model depends on generating fear, finding someone to blame; they are totally lost when up against someone refusing to play their game.
Jordan Lucilus retweeted
For those mocking the PM for going on Gogglebox:
It's for Stand Up to Cancer.
For those mocking his tattoo:
It's the Manchester Bee, done after the Manchester Arena Attack, where 22 died and 100's more were injured.
Jordan Lucilus retweeted
🚨 BRENT JUST HIT $116.72, A SIX MONTH HIGH. THE IRAN WAR IS NOW A TAX ON THE WHOLE WORLD.
Brent closed Friday at $116.72, up about 6% this week. WTI is above $103.
Why now:
→ Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites. Aramco ordered the evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters
→ Two tanker attacks confirmed near Hormuz this week
→ Traders expect the US to resume strikes on Iran
Oil is still moving through Hormuz, so a big part of this jump is fear. That can change fast in both directions.
What it does to the world:
→ US gasoline rose 9.1% in September alone. US CPI is 3.7%
→ Euro area inflation is 3.8%, with energy up 18.8%
→ The IMF says Asia and Europe are hit the hardest
→ US, German and Japanese 10 year yields are at their highest since 2007, 2009 and 1996
→ The Fed, the ECB, the BoJ and Korea are all tightening, and Canada may hike next week
The IMF also warns that high oil prices could last into 2027, even if the conflict ends soon.
Higher oil means higher inflation. Higher inflation means higher rates. Higher rates mean pressure on stocks and crypto.
The Fed decides on October 28. If it talks tough on energy prices, the market will notice.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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Jordan Lucilus retweeted
Elon Musk
Just what an incredible fall from grace…
From innovative, eco-conscious, cool nerd…
To depraved, entitled, evil, war-mongering, self-radicalised fuckwit.
Jordan Lucilus retweeted
🚨 They Planned the 2020 Lockdowns to Secretly Bail Out the Banks With $6 Trillion Without Hyperinflation
They didn’t lockdown the world because of a virus. They locked you down because the entire banking system was already on the brink of collapse.
In September 2019 the REPO market exploded. Overnight lending rates spiked. Corporate loans and derivatives were quietly failing. There was no cash left in the repo market and in the system even through banks had Treasuries as collateral.
The Federal Reserve was staring at a full-blown liquidity crisis that could have taken down major banks.
Then, just weeks later, a “once-in-a-century” virus conveniently appears.
By early 2020 the Fed starts pulling hundreds of billions out of the REPO market… right as the first cases hit U.S. soil.
They shut down the entire economy.
Why?
Because if people stop spending, stop borrowing, and stop circulating money, the system can suddenly print $6 TRILLION and dump it straight into the banks without causing immediate hyperinflation.
The lockdowns were a financial operation.
While you were terrified of a virus and watching your business die, the biggest bailout in history was being executed behind closed doors.
The timing wasn’t coincidence. The scale wasn’t accident. The narrative wasn’t organic.
They needed you scared, isolated, and offline so they could quietly rescue the system that was already breaking in 2019.
This wasn’t chaos. This was the plan.
The famous City Of London banker @LordBelgrave already warned about how central banks, IMF and BIS have been planning the new monetary order.
Oil shock? AI crisis? Cyberattacks?
They’re already preparing for the next one.
Jordan Lucilus retweeted
🚨 JAPAN IS THE NEXT TRIGGER. THE YEN IS STUCK AT 158 AND TOKYO IS READY TO ACT AGAIN.
USD/JPY is trading near 158.5. Last time it went above 160, Japan and the US stepped in together to buy yen. That was in late July, the first joint move in 15 years. Japan also spent about 11.7 trillion yen in April and May.
On October 15, Japan Finance Minister Katayama said Tokyo is ready to act again if needed.
The Bank of Japan meets on October 30. The rate is 1.25%. Markets price a very small chance of a hike this month, but about an 80% chance of one in December.
Ueda told parliament on Monday that underlying inflation is close to the 2% target. Japan CPI comes on Friday.
Why it matters:
The yen is a funding currency for global trades. When the yen rises fast, traders close those trades, and stocks and crypto can fall together. This happened in August 2024.
The Fed decides on October 28 and the BOJ on October 30. Two big central banks within three days.
If the BOJ turns hawkish or Tokyo steps in, the yen can jump quickly.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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Jordan Lucilus retweeted
🚨 THIS IS STAGFLATION. PRICES UP, HIRING DEAD, AND THE FED IS HIKING ANYWAY.
Look at the numbers:
CPI: 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August
Gasoline: +9.1% in September alone
Payrolls: +29K. July was revised to -10K
Unemployment: 4.2%, up from 4.1%
Real wages: down 0.7% y/y
Michigan current conditions: 44.7, a record low
Prices rise faster than pay. Moody's economist Mark Zandi says payroll growth was about 40K a month over the past year, and close to zero outside health care. People feel it: consumer conditions just hit the lowest level on record.
And the Fed? It is hiking into this. The inflation comes from energy, and higher rates do not bring oil down. They only slow the economy more.
GDP is the last number to show it. Real pay and hiring show it first.
Higher prices, no jobs, higher rates. Call it what you want. I call it stagflation.
This is the beginning of the end.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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Jordan Lucilus retweeted
To all the @pumpius followers who want some real $XRP and XRPL education from somebody actually building on the ledger, give me a follow.
Your favorite influencer challenged me to bring receipts, and that’s exactly what I did. Instead of addressing them, he resorted to personal insults and bringing my family into it. No receipts and no respect. Just more bullshit from an influencer who can’t defend his own claims.
I’m not here to sell you $XRP price predictions or tell you what you want to hear. I build on the XRPL, work with the technology firsthand and share what I learn.
If you want to understand $XRP, the XRPL and what’s actually being built, you’re welcome here.
Jordan Lucilus retweeted
You seem confused. This has nothing to do with immigration. The riots are around cost of living, fuel prices, and lack of funding for schools and public services. You know those exact same problems you are trying to distract people from in the US with your latest culture war or actual war, sorry... not war... incursion.. or whatever you are still trying to pretend it is. Remember one of the reasons that fuel prices are high globally at the moment is because your administration of idiots decided to start another war in the Middle East and shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
Jordan Lucilus retweeted
Russian Sympathizers
youtu.be/V-LzWLqtnnk?is=Zwp4…
Jordan Lucilus retweeted
🚨 US IMPORT PRICES JUMPED 1.1% IN SEPTEMBER. EXPORT PRICES ROSE 2.2%. THE INFLATION PIPELINE IS STILL FILLING UP.
US Import Price Index (September): +1.1% m/m. Expected: +0.8%.
US Export Price Index (September): +2.2% m/m. Expected: +1.0%.
Export prices came in more than double the forecast. Imports were also above expectations.
This is the third hot inflation report in three days. CPI was 3.7% y/y, PPI was +1.3% m/m, and now this. Import prices are an early signal of what companies pay before the cost reaches shoppers.
The Fed gets more reason to hike on October 27-28. That keeps pressure on stocks and crypto.
Why it matters:
Import prices show what the US pays for goods from abroad, including oil. When they rise, costs move into producer prices first and consumer prices later.
Export prices show how global demand and the dollar affect US sellers.
The ex-fuel number tells us if inflation is only about energy or spreading wider. That is what the Fed cares about most.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 US CPI IS BACK THIS WEEK. HERE IS EVERYTHING THAT CAN MOVE THE MARKET, OCT 12-16.
MON, OCT 12
No major data. US bond market is closed for Columbus Day. Canada and Japan are on holiday.
TUE, OCT 13
🟡 Q3 earnings start: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and 4 others (before US market open)
WED, OCT 14
🟡 China CPI: 01:30 UTC (9:30 AM Beijing)
🔴 US CPI (September): 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET)
🟡 Fed Beige Book: 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET)
🟡 Earnings: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and 4 others (before US market open)
THU, OCT 15
🔴 US Retail Sales, PPI, Jobless Claims and Philly Fed: 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET)
🟡 Earnings: TSMC, Charles Schwab and 2 others
FRI, OCT 16
🔴 Fed Chair Warsh speaks at the IMF meeting in Bangkok: 03:30 UTC (10:30 AM Bangkok)
🟢 US Import and Export Prices: 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET)
🟢 Eurozone final CPI
Why it matters:
CPI on Wednesday is the main event. It lands two weeks before the Fed meeting on Oct 28, and the hike debate is still open.
Thursday brings retail sales and PPI on the same morning, so inflation and consumer data hit together.
Warsh speaks on Friday, right after CPI. That is when the market gets his reaction.
Bank earnings show how the credit side holds up with the 10 year yield near 5.3%.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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Jordan Lucilus retweeted
🚨 US CPI DROPS TODAY. INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO JUMP BACK UP, AND THE FED IS WATCHING.
US CPI (September), out at 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET). Expected: 3.6% y/y. Previous: 3.4%.
IF CPI > 3.6% → market dumps
IF CPI = 3.6% → nothing changes near-term
IF CPI < 3.6% → market pumps
The jump is driven by energy. Gasoline hit a record for September at $4.33 a gallon, and energy prices are expected to rise about 5.5% in one month. Headline CPI is expected at +0.6% m/m.
But the market also trades core. Core CPI is expected at +0.2% m/m. In the August report core came in at 0.3% vs 0.2% expected, and stocks sold off while yields and the dollar rose.
The odds of an October hike are only around 20%, but a December hike is largely priced in. A hot number can bring October back to life.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
Follow me and turn notifications on.