Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia. All opinions my own, not CFR's. A RT is not an endorsement. [email protected]

Washington, D.C.
Joined December 2011
Thailand’s national election did not go the way many polls predicted, but those polls were capturing party list intentions to vote. @bhumjaithai_TH did a great job in the campaign period of picking up support from power brokers in rural areas, and getting commitments to constituency seats. 1/
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Prabowo may be following Suharto's playbook of blaming foreign intervention in the 1998 financial crisis, but times have changed. In a democracy Prabowo must answer for his administration's poor handling of the economy (recall things did not work out well for Suharto) #Indonesia
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Backsliding does not have to be a death sentence. Eroding democracies can be defended. Here's a toolkit from our October issue 👇
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My latest appearance on @AJEnglish talking about why the White House's new relationship with Myanmar is unikely to result in any strategic gains for the U.S. at all @CFR_org Why the US is holding secret talks with Myanmar’s military ruler aje.news/zjtsto via @AJEnglish
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New: The State Department is updating its travel advisory for mainland China to include an increased risk level for wrongful detention: semafor.com/article/10/16/20…
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Authoritarian regimes have modernized repression while movements have reduced strategic nonviolent struggle to street protest, mistaking visibility for leverage, write Breza Race Maksimovic and Jamila Raqib. Read "Does Nonviolent Action Still Work?"👇 muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/1…
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My colleague @JoshKurlantzick argues that the increase in authoritarian soft power is helping autocrats achieve strategic objectives and undermining global democracies' faith in their own foreign policy. Read the full article below. worldpoliticsreview.com/auto…
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FWIW I wouldn't read into US delistings from the SDN list (so far). I don't think they are reflective of a wider thaw in US #Myanmar policy - though that appears to be happening independently. So far the two are not being pursued in a coordinated manner. thediplomat.com/2026/10/us-d…
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With over 70 percent of the world’s population now living in autocracies, authoritarian regimes are using their state media to amplify one another’s messages and spread authoritarianism further, @JoshKurlantzick writes. wpr.pub/4yrTEgb
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“For now, Japan has staked its future on the United States, but its continued course depends on the United States also choosing to loudly and publicly embrace Japan,” write @DavidMSacks1 and Nick Snyder. foreignaffairs.com/japan/jap…
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🇲🇲 A new @BBCNews investigation reveals how civilians are being abducted by #Myanmar’s military and forced into military service. The article cites @FortifyRights’s documentation of forced recruitment and research by @MyanmarWitness, which analyzed hundreds of missing-person advertisements posted on Facebook between 2021 and 2025. bbc.com/news/articles/c680zl…
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It’s in the article
Why does everyone who talk about Myanmar's rare earths conviently leave out the rare earths are controlled by the KIA in Kachin State. Washington will have to broker a deal with the KIO for any deal, and even then, the rare earths will still have to be processed in China...
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No disagreement Bob. I just am impressed by Timor.
As long as China has a veto ( via Cambodia or Laos), ASEAN will be a useless charade.
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A tiny state that is the only full democracy in SE Asia, yet has the guts to stand up for rights at a time when few do.
They have an open case against Myanmar for crimes against humanity. Timor does whatever they want. Actually a fascinating case study.
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Beyond the diplomatic headlines, more critical are the ongoing developments inside Myanmar. The Tatmadaw appears increasingly confident in its ability to beat back the broader opposition with extreme force, and a fleeting window for ceasefire may now be closing. 1/4
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Is there any indication the @ASEAN SG discussed his organization's official policy on Myanmar -- the #FivePointConsensus -- or the Naypyidaw regime's continued violence against civilians, disastrous economic policies, and transnational criminal activities during this meeting? #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #BusinessAsUsual
Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr.  Kao Kim Hourn, today met with the Chargé d’Affaires of the Permanent Mission of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar to ASEAN, Mr. Mang Hau Thang, at the ASEAN Headquarters/ASEAN Secretariat. During the meeting, they discussed preparations for the upcoming 49th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits and exchanged views on recent developments in ASEAN, including ASEAN Community-building and integration efforts to advance the implementation of ASEAN 2045: Our Shared Future.
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