Founder & reigning monarch at TPM. Lapsed historian. Hand tool woodworker. ✡️ (Sign up for The Backchannel https://teapawt.net/t.co/GpsQ8cC6vk)
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Holy shit this segment instagram.com/reel/DfGgtwxNu…
Josh Marshall retweeted
Well what do you know? Who could have seen it coming?
A Republican women's group is behind a fake Texas transgender student union that sent text messages and brochures to as many as three million voters this month.
The Republican Women’s Caucus Fund and someone named John Braun were identified as those responsible for the scheme that riled up voters just as early voting began, according to legal filings made public late Thursday. The identities were ordered to be revealed by a Travis County judge. bit.ly/48q1oVa
Josh Marshall retweeted
That letter, if it exists (very unlikely), was almost certainly sent as part of a political disinformation campaign that they’re now further amplifying via this forum.
WHOA! Texas MOM tells JD Vance her DAUGHTER received a letter telling her TO TRANSITION TO A BOY 🤯
Vice President @JDVance: “Talk to our staff because I’d like the Department of Justice to investigate that.” 🇺🇸🔥
What Haviv is responding to here is something we see a lot in the US too. Beating the polls doesn’t actually mean anything. It feels good to beat them, yes. It’s a bummer to have your expectations dashed. But polls are just a prediction artifact. Your “win” is just against some data guy who didn’t model something correctly. It has nothing to do with public opinion, how good a campaign you ran, really anything. And yet people in politics and media build these narratives around polling errors as though someone who was underestimated in the polls is like a boxing who mounts a comeback in the final rounds, or like the Knicks last year with those amazing come from behind victories.
But when there’s a polling miss you were never actually behind. The Knicks were behind in game 4 by 29 points. Coming back from that deficit was an amazing feat of skill and fortitude. Yes everybody knows what I’m saying here is true. But it’s not how people thinking of things. Your results this time versus last time is a real thing. How you did vs polls actually means nothing.
None of this is true. The rage and narrative making on the right is getting to be a fascinating phenomenon we need to look at.
Netanyahu did much better than left-wing pollsters predicted (channel 12’s last poll gave his coalition 50), and much worse than right-wing polls expected. Filber’s last poll for channel 14 gave Netanyahu’s coalition 62 and Filber declared on Election Day that Lieberman was below the threshold.
So no, Netanyahu didn’t blow out the polls, he landed pretty much in between the politically identified pollsters.
Just because the left doesn’t give us honest competent polling doesn’t mean the right does.
But none of that is what this article is about. There is absolutely no way to crunch the numbers in which Netanyahu didn’t lose seats overall.
The fact that that simple numerical fact drives an insane amount of rage against anyone who mentions it online suggests that the right is exactly as trapped in its echo chambers and rabbit holes as the left.
Josh Marshall retweeted
I'm tracking rural county voter turnout, which, as the experts have told us, is higher than in 2022, and red counties are the firewall, so it looks like good news for Rs- until you see this: Childress County, which is ground zero for data centers + out of water, is showing near-presidential election turnout. Other data center counties like Jack & Armstrong have similar patterns. #txlege
Josh Marshall retweeted
you can now buy the 'Trump Loves It' red speedo in Husted's campaign merch store
there's simply no logic to this list at all. i'm really thinking this may just be that he got tired and didn't want to travel anymore
RNC on Trump’s latest midterm plans: “With Republicans in a strong position in Kansas and Iowa, previously planned in-person rallies in those states will no longer take place as scheduled.”
Updated list of states targeted by his coming tele-rallies: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia
lol
RNC on Trump’s latest midterm plans: “With Republicans in a strong position in Kansas and Iowa, previously planned in-person rallies in those states will no longer take place as scheduled.”
Updated list of states targeted by his coming tele-rallies: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia
Josh Marshall retweeted
New: Four years ago, many Hasidic and other Orthodox Jewish voting blocs went all in for Republican Lee Zeldin. Now, influential leaders in those communities are backing Hochul as energy for Bruce Blakeman in those neighborhoods is lackluster cityandstateny.com/politics/…
Josh Marshall retweeted
🚨 Republican Former US Senator Sheila Frahm endorses Adam Hamilton.
Sen. Frahm joins Republican former governors Bill Graves and Mike Hayden supporting Adam's campaign.
Josh Marshall retweeted
Couple of bonus rating changes in advance of our final ratings (as @LarrySabato just announced on CNN):
Louisiana Senate Safe R to Likely R
Minnesota Senate Leans D to Likely D
Josh Marshall retweeted
״אבל מנסור מה יש לך להכיר במדינה יהודית, לתמוך בשירות אזרחי ולצרף את היהודי הציוני סגלוביץ הזה ניצב בדימוס מהמשטרה למפלגה זה יבריח ערבים״
ליטרלי מכפיל את המנדטים מ4 ל8 פאקינג המפלגה השלישית בגודלה בכנסת
עבאס וסגלוביץ קיבלו את אמון הציבור הערבי לשילוב מלא בחברה הישראלית
חבקו אותם!
Josh Marshall retweeted
אני לא רוצה לחיות במדינה שבה יהודים וערבים רק מתקיימים זה לצד זה. אני רוצה מדינה שבה אנחנו שותפים אמיתיים, שווים, עם קול והשפעה.
דמוקרטיה אמיתית לא יכולה לפחד משותפות יהודית־ערבית. היא חייבת להתבסס עליה
Josh Marshall retweeted
After Israel’s election, Binyamin Netanyahu seems confident he can bide his time while the opposition blunders. Even without a majority, he will stay on as caretaker prime minister economist.com/middle-east-an…
Josh Marshall retweeted
In lieu of flowers, memorial contributions may be made to:
Johns Hopkins Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center Fund
alzresearch.org/giving/
Alzheimer’s Foundation of America Caregiver Resources
alzfdn.org/donate/
Photo Credit: Tommy Garcia
Josh Marshall retweeted
In the biggest midterms upset, Republicans flip the NYT seat from blue to red.
BREAKING via NYT: In 2016, the Obama administration investigated Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) and found “some evidence that Ms. Omar had entered into a sham marriage with a man suspected of being her brother”, but the case and potential felony charges stalled because of a 5 year statute of limitations.
nytimes.com/2026/10/29/us/im…
Josh Marshall retweeted
אני נקרע מצחוק מהמתמטיקה שעושים פה לממשלת אחדות.
70 מנדטים, 90 מנדטים, כאילו שהמשוכה היא הרוב הקואליציוני.
מצטער אבל אתם לא באירוע.
נתניהו קטלני. פנומן פוליטי.
הוא יעשה לכל שותף ממחנה השינוי בית ספר.
אתם תיכנסו לאחדות למען ישראל, הוא ייכנס כדי לפרק את השותפות מתי שנוח לו.
הוא יגרור אתכם לבחירות כפויות בהן תפסידו את התחתונים וההישג מהבחירות הנוכחיות ייעלם.
אין לכם סיכוי אם לא תמקסמו את התוצאות הנוכחיות.
אין לו אינטרס לפרק גוש, הוא בונה על זה שלא תשחקו מלוכלך כי הוא כבר קבע לכם את גבולות הגזרה:
ערבים אסור, חרדים אסור.
רק לנתניהו מותר.
לכו על תוכנית שלבים. תקלפו שלב שלב.
הציבור יתמוך.
זאת לא תהיה קואליציית החלומות של אף אחד אבל לפחות תתחילו בתהליך הבראת המדינה.