1st worked on Wall St summer '65. Recovering securities lawyer. Trading for a living 45 yrs. Not investment advice, don't be silly. 🇮🇱 linshek lei et hitchat

Joined October 2010
Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson outlines key catalysts for year-end rally @seekingalpha
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Character references don't get any better.
Ken Paxton is legitimately awesome. This race wouldn’t even have been close if Republicans didn’t spend $100m attacking Ken for whatever was left of John Cornyn. Vote for Paxton!
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
2 of 2) Oct. averages 3.5% gains in midterm years, the strongest seasonal month. With 5 sessions left, $SPX is MTD -0.36%. Current macro context is more likely to drive prices than the calendar. Depending on the calendar can be akin to wishing on a star. Sometimes it will work.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
1 of 2) $SPX The next time you see a post on midterm seasonality, take a deep breath and consider the following: 6 of the 1st 9 months this year (including the 1st 5 mos this year) had results contrary in direction to what seasonality would suggest using midterm yrs since 1980.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
The main reason why NATO enlargement happened was because of Russia. The main reason why Ukraine was militarily attacked was the lack of NATO membership. The main reason why Sweden and Finland joined NATO after hundreds of years respectively decades of neutrality was also Russia.
🚨 Putin plans to use Ukraine peace talks to push NATO back to its 1997 military posture According to The Telegraph, the Kremlin wants to force NATO to scale back its military presence in Europe to levels seen before Eastern European countries joined the Alliance. This could mean demanding the withdrawal of NATO forces from Poland, the Baltic states, and Finland. That is why Moscow is pushing for European countries to participate in negotiations over Ukraine. Diplomatic sources cited by The Telegraph say Putin wants to turn talks about ending the war into negotiations over the entire European security architecture. The issue may also have been discussed during Putin's three-hour meeting with Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, in St. Petersburg. However, European countries have previously rejected the Kremlin's demands to reduce NATO's military presence on its eastern flank.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
META RAISES $35 BILLION TO FUND AI EXPANSION Meta ($META ) launched a $35B equity offering to finance AI infrastructure, including $22.5B in common stock and $12.5B in convertible preferred shares. $NVDA, $AMD and $AVGO have expressed interest in investing up to $5B combined. Meta targets $135B–$145B in 2026 capex, with another $60B stock-sale program planned for 2027. The key risk: Rising AI financing needs and potential shareholder dilution.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
Zelensky: We cannot talk about the neutrality of our state. We cannot talk about limiting the Ukrainian army. Restrictions on our army and Ukraine's neutrality are not up for discussion.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal17h
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The next Iran war could send oil to $150 The world survived the first energy shock by burning through inventories while China slashed imports. That cushion is largely gone. El-Erian warns that another disruption to Hormuz and the Red Sea could push oil toward $150, just as borrowing costs remain painfully high. And the scary part? Nobody knows what breaks first. In 2022, Britain's pension system nearly collapsed. Almost nobody saw it coming. This time, an energy crisis could become a financial crisis before anyone realizes where the weak spot is. @elerianm
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfalOct 25
🇺🇸 AI could usher in an era of unprecedented prosperity But what if the world isn’t prepared for the risks?? Economist Mohamed El-Erian joined to discuss the biggest threats facing the global economy, from the AI boom and mounting debt to the possibility of $150 oil! El-Erian describes AI as a “rational bubble”: investors may lose enormous sums on projects that fail, but the potential payoff is so huge that the frenzy makes sense. Meanwhile, if conflict disrupts both Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, oil could surge to $150 a barrel, delivering another shock to an already fragile global economy. With borrowing costs elevated, governments piling up debt, and AI companies taking on massive financing needs, could these risks compound into something far worse? And which economies are best positioned to weather the oncoming storm? @elerianm
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
"This guy is obsessed with someone else's ass. I feel seen."
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
$SMH 🧐
"When 3 different methods point at the same number, it’s a level worth watching. It’s also where a lot of stop-loss orders tend to congregate, so a clean break would probably be swift." - @simon_ree on $QQQ 🚨🧐🤔 taooftrading.substack.com/p/…
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
KREMLIN SAYS AGREEMENT TO RESUME 3-WAY TALKS WITH UKRAINE AND US DOES NOT PLACE ANY RESTRICTIONS ON MOSCOW OR KYIV WHEN IT COMES TO CONTINUING MILITARY ACTION
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
📌 MCG Tech Positioning in mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech has cooled from its highs, returning to neutral territory at the 33rd percentile 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ @DeutscheBank $spx #spx #tech #sp500 $qqq #stocks #equity
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
OCTOBER HOLD PRICED IN. WALL STREET EYES DECEMBER HIKE. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to hold rates this week before raising them 25 basis points in December. Kalshi traders price a 93% chance of an October hold, versus just 6% for a hike. The debate has shifted from October to December.
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In terms of hyperscaler performance, have we moved past how much capex are they spending to how much free cash flow are they generating? Despite a robust outlook with Mag-7 earnings expected to climb about 34% this year, above the 29% pace of the S&P 500, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data, and 27% in 2027, a consensus that has moved up aggressively in recent weeks (two months ago, analysts were anticipating an increase of less than 19%), the Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Index is up just 6.5% this year, well below the 11% rise in the S&P 500 Index and the 15% rise in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index. “If we get another scenario where we have to lower FCF expectations, that will elevate concerns about the durability of AI spending and the reliance on incremental capital, and that will flow down to the neoclouds and other parts of the market as well,” said Kevin Shea, senior equity analyst at BNY Wealth. “However, if we can get positive revisions to FCF, the market will breathe a sigh of relief that we’ve reached the bottom for negative revisions and that we’re through the most difficult part of the spending cycle.”
🇺🇸 AI Spending Fears Threaten to Swamp Big Tech’s Strong Earnings - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
gm. 38% of S&P 500 weight reports this week. via Scott Rubner, Citadel
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Reuters
@Reuters12h
Brazilian right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has followed his imprisoned father's lead by refusing to concede defeat to leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who won a historic fourth term in the October 25 presidential election reut.rs/4zOli7X
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🇺🇸 What Investors Want to Know About Trump and the Midterm Elections - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
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RFK Jr: The polio vaccine “killed many, many more people” than polio ever did. What absolute garbage I still can't believe he said this
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
Well, well, well… maybe change is in the air…
Ken Griffin explains why the rise of passive investing only works as long as active managers keep doing the research that sets prices “So what’s very interesting is the rise of passive investing plays to the realization that markets are either efficient or semi-efficient." "And it’s a way for investors to have low-cost exposure to either broad indices, to the world as a whole, or to specific sectors without having to pay the fees of active management." "It’s been revolutionary for the world, this embracing of passive investing. But passive investing only works if there’s a meaningful community of people involved in fundamental research who are helping to set the pricing of securities." "So passive investing requires the existence of capable, successful, and competitive traditional asset managers for the theory that underlies passive investing to actually play out, to actually manifest itself." "So the rise of short-term investors helps to ensure that markets are efficient with respect to news that’s rapidly evolving. But we should really try to make sure that we take every step possible to make it that traditional asset managers have the ability to have prosperous and successful firms because they are so critical in the price discovery process that passive investing depends upon.”
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
High-frequency US inflation data point to a 4% annualized rate of increase (0.34% m/m) @augurinfinity
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